The State of the Race: First out of the Gate

The decision to move the New York Film Critics up to be announced before the National Board of Review was an interesting experiment. I don’t know if it will prove worthwhile when all is said and done; after all, one of the NBR’s biggest problems, and blessings I suppose, is that their awards seemed to always reflect the race as it stood early, before things got swinging.  It could turn out that the New York Film Critics end up there by the time this confusing year comes to an end.

When the Social Network won everything, to an astonishing, unprecedented degree, only to see the industry shun it in favor of the King’s Speech, it was akin to killing off the Queen Ant.  Now, it feels like critics groups might scatter in different directions, but without any kind of overreaching leader.  So far, we have The Artist, which won many audience awards heading into the race, and has been thundering wildly along since it debuted all the way back in May at the Cannes Film Festival.  When does that happen? The only time I’ve seen it happen, in fact, was when No Country for Old Men thundered through, winning everything, including the Oscar (one of the most deserving Oscar wins in their history).  The Artist, charming as it is, brilliant as it is, isn’t quite No Country for Old Men, but it’s possible it could keep thundering onward, taking the big prize at the end.  Most will be predicting this by the end of this weekend.

The National Board of Review shut out Moneyball, but gave their top prize to Hugo and director Martin Scorsese. If Hugo didn’t seem like a formidable Best Picture contender — which translates to it being one of the best films of 2011, which it is, by a long way — it certainly is in the race now.  Not only is it in the race, but I’ll agree with my colleague, Kris Tapley, and say it’s one of the top contending films for the award.  The Artist is also up there. So is The Descendants, which has yet to see a big win, but that hardly means anything this year.

Why does the NBR matter?  It matters because it, along with the NYFCC, looks great on ads.  That’s really it. It’s kind of like being asked to the dance. Someone asked you. You matter. Someone picked Hugo. It matters. Dismissing the National Board of Review is never going to change that.

Decorating your For Your Consideration ads with accolades will get voters interested in your film, and might get them to watch it.  Just be sure it has naked ladies in it and doesn’t require 3-D glasses; it was told to me via Twitter that some Academy members were complaining about Hugo and 3-D.  Perhaps they aren’t quite ready to join us in this century and to embrace this technology, when it has been explored so beautifully by Martin Scorsese.  Most directors, I think, use it as a clever trick.  Only two, Scorsese and Jim Cameron, have used to it to better tell their story.  No, neither Hugo nor Avatar particularly needed 3-D, but once you see it that way you never want to see it the other way.   This isn’t to say awarding Hugo is akin to leaving old Hollywood behind. Scorsese proved you can do it all: tell a good story, AND use 3-D.

So why is it such a big deal to be first out of the gate? Because the press pays more attention to you if you’re the first one to say something.  However, let’s face it. The National Board of Review has been doing this longer. They know how to turn heads with their choices.  If you’re going to be first, as the NYFCC were this year, and you pick something predictable like The Artist there isn’t going to be a whole lot of excitement there.  The NYFCC won the battle, but the NBR won the war because what it did and what it picked could end up being a game changer; since The Artist is already winning stuff, agreeing with that win doesn’t do a whole lot. But to pick something like Hugo?  That’s how you make headlines.

The National Board of Review gave their award to Hugo, but here are the other nine:

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Tree of Life
War Horse

The question as to whether Harry Potter gets a boost from the NBR.  Again, that accolade can sit nicely on ads and up the prestige for voters.  But for Harry Potter to get nominated, everyone’s ducks have to be in a row. They have to decide that they want to push it through and try hard to get the votes. Otherwise, the way the votes are counted this year, it will have to be among the top three favorites on most of the ballots.

It’s hard to know which of these will be included. Generally speaking, the NBR gets two, three sometimes four matching contenders with Oscar. When there were ten nominees for Best Picture the NBR had a slightly better track record. Start with five and add a few from there. In a competitive year, it’s possible that they will push the limits of this voting system and award nine best picture nominees. It’s possible there will be only five, if it is indeed a “weak year,” as many are saying. However these films feel like locks to me:

The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
The Help
War Horse

I might go with those five if I had to only pick five. But then it opens up further:

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tree of Life

Last year’s winner, The Social Network, but the other ten – four were nominated and one won.

Ten Best Films
(in alphabetical order)
Another Year
The Fighter*
Hereafter
Inception*
The King’s Speech+
Shutter Island
The Town
Toy Story 3*
True Grit*
Winter’s Bone*

Year prior – Up in the Air won, and the other ten:

An Education*
(500) Days Of Summer
The Hurt Locker+
Inglourious Basterds*
Invictus
The Messenger
A Serious Man*
Star Trek
Up*
Up In The Air*
Where The Wild Things Are

In 2008, there were five Oscar best pictures, and this is how the NBR went down:

2008:
Slumdog Millionaire (AA)
Burn After Reading
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
WALL-E
The Wrestler

Of these, four of the eventual five Best Picture nominees were represented.

2007:
No Country for Old Men (AA)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

So there is a good chance you’re looking at least three of the eventual Best Picture nominees with the selection this year. Give or take a film here or there.

One thing yesterday proved, the race is wide open — anything could win at this point and I wouldn’t be shocked. I’m going to guess that the safe mainstreamers, Karger, Thompson, Hammond, Tapley, Pond, will go for The Artist to win. And so, we wait.