Predictions Friday: Folding SAG Ensemble and Best Picture

I remember when my dear friend David Carr, who was The Carpetbagger back then, was blogging about the Oscar race. He said to me “Best Picture is really where the heat is, isn’t it.” To him, and to me, that was true. The whole year came down to Best Picture. It was the best category. In some years, when Best Picture was decided very early and never wavered, the heat was in different categories that were more competitive. In a year like this one, however, with no surefire Best Picture frontrunner we can plainly see, Best Picture has the heat, all right.

One thing to note about this year’s Best Picture race are the ensembles that drive many of the frontrunners. As of now, I figure, three films have a viable shot at winning the big prize and it will be an interesting year seeing how they shake out. Those are: Spotlight (Telluride), Steve Jobs (Telluride) and The Martian (Toronto). Many also suspect The Revenant will make Oscar history and become both Inarritu’s second year in a row win, and a late-breaking movie win, which hasn’t happened since Eastwood and Million Dollar Baby in 2004.

What happened right around then? Readers of this site will know that the date change happened. Oscar pushed it back a month, and in so doing, completely altered the way Oscar voting works. Now, the decision is made on the winners without the public’s input. It often happens that the public also likes the Best Picture winner – most of the time – because the Best Picture winner is almost always the film that you can sit anyone down in front of (husband, grandma, social worker, mob boss, mistress, politician, teacher, blogger, critic) and they will get it, if not love it. The more divisive the film the harder its chances to win.

All three of the current frontrunners – Spotlight, Steve Jobs and The Martian have a pretty good chance of being nominated for SAG ensemble. All three could even win SAG ensemble, though I suspect Spotlight has the edge ever so slightly. Jeff Daniels stars in two out of the three, which is neither here nor there except that he could see two nominations from different films in the same year.

SAG ensemble doesn’t always match Best Picture. Since Oscar changed up to ten nomination slots in 2009, and then shrunk back down to five on the nomination ballot in 2011, they have never not matched with the Producers Guild. Both have roughly the same number of members, and both use the preferential ballot tabulation system. They are the only two large voting bodies that use the preferential ballot. SAG and the DGA have five nominating slots and use the plurality ballot (we can ask Marshall Flores to explain the difference).

If a film touches all of these bases the same way, as some often do, it is winning Best Picture without a doubt. There was a time when there could be some mismatch but that was back when the Oscars didn’t use the preferential system and thus, a sudden last-minute wave could take effect. Now, it’s near impossible. Let’s look at all of them going back ten years:

Five nomination slots, ten best picture contenders at PGA and Oscar, five at DGA and SAG

2014
Birdman – PGA/DGA/SAG

2013
12 Years a Slave – 1/2 PGA
Gravity – 1/2 PGA/DGA
American Hustle – SAG

2012
Argo – PGA/DGA/SAG

2011
The Artist – PGA/DGA
The Help – SAG

Ten nomination slots, ten best picture contenders at PGA and Oscar, five at DGA and SAG

2010
The King’s Speech – PGA/DGA/SAG

2009
The Hurt Locker – PGA/DGA
Inglourious Basterds – SAG

Five nomination ballots, no preferential balloting:

2008
Slumdog Millionaire – PGA/DGA/SAG

2007
No Country for Old Men – PGA/DGA/SAG

2006
The Departed – DGA
Little Miss Sunshine – PGA/SAG

2005
Crash – PGA
Brokeback Mountain – PGA/DGA

What you see each year, under all three different types of voting, is that SAG can often be the outlier. Since the expansion of Best Picture to more than 5 nominees, the PGA has been the most reliable indicator because it uses the same preferential ballot. Even the DGA was off in 2013 when Gravity won it but 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. (Although, not surprisingly, the DGA did tag Oscar’s Best Director winner).

The SAG vote can stand alone from Best Picture if it wants to. We know that the Academy are ruled by actors. Their total number of members is almost double any other branch. As of 2013, that number is 1,176.  The second highest is the sound branch, weirdly enough, with 400 some odd members. Right after that come the directors, producers and such, with 300 some odd members.

The actors are by far the driving force behind Best Picture and the reason why winners in specific categories like Cinematography or Production Design often go to the most popular film, or the prettiest film, as opposed to the most exceptionally done from a designers or pure craft point of view. Actors know acting. They probably know a bit about writing and directing but of all of the branches in the Academy they are the least wonky and the most like Joe and Jane Popcorn.  That’s is why the Academy’s choices hover somewhere between the film critics awards and the People’s Choice awards.

Spotlight is an actors’ movie all the way. It is about the best actors in the business working as a tight ensemble to deliver a great story. The whole thing is dependent upon the actors to keep it humming along. This is the preferred type of film for the actors branch. This is their bread and butter. If it does well, more jobs for them because the bigger the ensemble the more great parts there are for people like Stanley Tucci or Liev Schreiber.

Right behind Spotlight is Steve Jobs – again, an actors film, maybe a writer’s film, all the way. Actors love nothing more than a script by Aaron Sorkin because it gives them a chance to really fly – to use their instrument, as they say, in the most exciting way. Who wouldn’t want to deliver those powerful, radical, cutting lines? Actors love sharp dialogue and Steve Jobs is all dialogue. It is a real threat to win Best Picture because it is well liked across the board and brings with it love for Apple products, admiration/revulsion for Steve Jobs himself, and is a celebration of what the nuts and bolts that run Hollywood can do – but especially actors. It is practically a play and is absolutely a showcase for actors – it’s just actors performing. That’s the whole film. It’s a threat to win and could surprise everyone by winning. If it is the winner, it will show up at the PGA first. Even if it doesn’t win the critics awards, the Globes or the BAFTA – it just has to win the PGA to win Best Picture. Can it beat Spotlight for SAG ensemble? Maybe so.

The Martian is also an ensemble work elevated by the writing and directing, even though it’s a sci-fi movie. It’s a sci-fi movie driven by actors. It is also going to be well liked across the board, even for “Joe the Sound Guy,” as Dave Karger once said so brilliantly. You can’t forget Joe the Sound the Guy because he and his peers hold a lot of ballots – so they matter too.   Just not as much as actors matter. The Martian has the biggest cast and the most diverse.  The entire SAG membership stars in The Martian practically. It’s also going to make more money, probably, that Spotlight and Steve Jobs combined – not that money matters at the Oscars anymore. It doesn’t.

We’re pretty sure that The Hateful Eight is going to be one of the five for SAG ensemble. We’re also pretty sure Joy will be.  Both Quentin Tarantino and David O. Russell are actors directors. They are both bringing with them big threats for the ensemble prize. Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds won SAG ensemble, as did Russell’s American Hustle. We just don’t know if we’re in a “one size fits all” kind of Best Picture year or a mixed bag Best Picture year. But either of these directors could present the upset – or not.

Other than these three, what other films could be nominated for SAG ensemble? Bridge of Spies is another massive ensemble work from a beloved director, Steven Spielberg. With Tom Hanks, Mark Rylance, Amy Ryan. Alan Alda – among others, it looks like it could go all the way. Along those same lines would be Scott Cooper’s Black Mass, with another ensemble of the some of the best actors around. Not just Johnny Depp but Joel Edgerton and Julianne Nicholson, Benedict Cumberbatch, etc. Black Mass is absolutely the kind of film defined by its ensemble and could show up at SAG as well as Best Picture.

Suffragette and Brooklyn are  two of the few films offered up this year  almost entirely filled with strong female performances.  Suffragette has the added impact of having Meryl Streep as one of the ensemble members. But both films feature acting showcases for women — which is extremely rare indeed. Along those same lines would be Todd Haynes’ masterful Carol, featuring two strong leading roles for women along with male co-stars. With Blanchett and Mara strong in the acting categories, it could show up at SAG. Room, by the same token, is another one that has so many good performances but is really going to fly on the strength of Brie Larson’s leading performance.

Love and Mercy is a film that SHOULD be included here, and it’s one people like me will keep fighting for. It has a chance, albeit an outside one. Paul Dano, John Cusack, Elizabeth Banks and Paul Giamatti, to name a few lead the ensemble cast.

Other strong ensembles so far this year include:

The Big Short – showing at AFI and looks like a star-packed ensemble
Youth – full of big name actors and absolutely right up their alley.
Brooklyn – a big ensemble of wonderful performances, a lot of women.
Suffragette – another big ensemble full of brilliant performances and ever-popular Meryl Streep
The Revenant – too soon to know but if it’s going to win Best Picture it might need to show up here.

There are, at this time, only two locks for Best Ensemble:

Spotlight
Steve Jobs

They are both out of Telluride and both surefire Oscar contenders. The fate of the other films is still yet to be determined.

Full predictions

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actress

Supporting Actress

Adapted screenplay

Original screenplay

Random predictions

Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions

Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Carol
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian

Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

Best documentary feature
1. He Named Me Malala (Davis Guggenheim)
2. Going Clear (Alex Gibney)
3. What Happened, Miss Simone? (Liz Garbus)
4. The Heart of a Dog (Laurie Anderson)
5. Amy (Asif Kapadia)

Fringe dwellers: Winter on Fire, The Armor of Light, Hitchcock/Truffaut, Meru, Prophet’s Prey, The Wolfpack

Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Joy
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany

Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars

Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars

Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight

Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea