The State of the Race: Predicting Something that Has Never Happened Before

After The Big Short won the Producers Guild, it was anointed as the Best Picture frontrunner. The thing about the Oscar race is that you mostly want to skate under the radar as much as possible to avoid the Alien attacking you. This is how I look at it. You want to be Ripley walking into a room full of eggs and have the Alien Queen not turn around and notice you’re there. Once she does, you’re toast unless you have a hell of a piece to threaten those eggs with. You see, each one of the Oscar contenders is an egg. If any other film had won the Producers Guild, they too would likely have been attacked.

The Big Short is getting it a tad worse because it did the unthinkable: it caught the Oscar pundits and critics by surprise. They thought they knew where the race was headed, but then suddenly it turned in a different direction as it has often done for quite some time now, since the PGA’s implementation of the preferential ballot. But it’s important to be right, and pity the contender that makes you feel wrong. It’s a sucky feeling, one that can transform into a wave of denial or rage.

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So The Revenant would have been attacked for the “magical natives” and Mad Max: Fury Road would have been attacked for being a sequel. Spotlight would be hard to attack because there is nothing particularly offensive about it. The only thing you can say against it is that it accurately depicts the mostly white, Catholic community of Boston, but because its intentions are so good, why would anyone attack it for that reason? Also, the bloggers and pundits who had their chips behind Spotlight would feel “right” and thus, would not have an incentive to attack the film. The Big Short took the lead in the Best Picture race, so now it gets to have a target on its back.

What are they attacking The Big Short for? The best thing they seem to be able to come up with that it’s an “all-white cast.” This has somehow made the rounds with hopes that it will stick so that another film with an all-white cast will take its place, because those are the options we’re working with this year. The accusation being lobbed at The Big Short is plainly false, as it’s one of three Best Picture nominees with black women in a speaking roles at all.

People are saying those roles aren’t big enough, or they aren’t listed on the SAG Ensemble award nomination. It’s as though it’s somehow The Big Short’s job, with the same producers who brought 12 Years a Slave to a Best Picture win in 2012, to right the wrongs of the Oscar race. Adam McKay was asked about the diversity issue and here is what he had to say:

“I think it’s legitimate. I think it’s a legitimate complaint … We’re supposedly artists, writers, directors, actors, whatever and I think more diversity is important. I think we’ve had stretches where there’s been good diversity, but lately it hasn’t been great. So I think if any group on planet Earth should be able to deal with protests like this, it should be filmmakers. So I support it. I thought that there were some really talented people that I would have loved to have seen nominated. I think we’re a group that should always be asking questions like that.

At the same time, I think that there were some great movies this year that do challenge entrenched authority and corrupt power, like ‘Spotlight,’ like our movie with banking … The irony is, we had to make a movie about Wall Street, which is mostly white men. So it was a little frustrating for us, but that’s the truth of Wall Street, we had to do it.”

Covering the story for Jezebel, Ellie Shechet says that the film doesn’t feature Meredith Whitney and that she’s a big part of the book. Yeah, no. If you’ve read the book you’ll know that Whitney is in the introduction as one of the explainers for the precariousness of Wall Street, the set-up that led to the story we were about to hear. Yes, Wall Street is mostly white, and no, the film doesn’t portray them in a flattering light.

Even given that, unlike Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street, McKay still cast actors of color in some of the roles, like Rajeev Jacob as a Goldman Sachs exec, Adepero Oduye as Kathy Tao, another executive, and Byron Mann as a CDO manager, a pivotal cameo with Selena Gomez, as well as a memorable scene with Stanley Wong as math wiz Ted Jiang. You won’t find any film where there is that much diversity with speaking roles except The Martian or Mad Max. It is just the simple fact of this year’s race. The films with all-black casts like Beasts of No Nation (championed by this site and celebrities all over town), mostly all-black Straight Outta Compton (AFI/WGA/PGA/SAG), and Creed were shut out. I’ve heard people say, well what about The Revenant — and you could make a good case for that, but since it isn’t being attacked yet, there is no need. Hopefully the Academy will add ten slots to broaden things up a lot next year.

Either way, what the pundits are doing right now is predicting something that has never happened before. That’s predicting a film to win Best Picture that did not first win the Producers Guild in this expanded Best Picture era. They are also predicting a film to win that doesn’t have the key nominations a film normally needs, and in fact every film has had except 1989’s Driving Daisy: an ACE Eddie nomination (Spotlight), or with Braveheart: a SAG Ensemble award nom (The Revenant, Mad Max). This has never happened since the implementation of the preferential ballot.

Here is a quick rundown of recent PGA winners:

2014 – Birdman
2013 – 12 Years a Slave + Gravity
2012 – Argo
2011 – The Artist
2010 – The King’s Speech
2009 – The Hurt Locker

——Five ballot PGA/five ballot Oscar———

2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
2007 – No Country for Old Men
2006 – Little Miss Sunshine (The Departed)
2005 – Brokeback Mountain (Crash)
2004 – The Aviator (Million Dollar Baby)
——Date Change pushing Oscars back a month—
2003 – Return of the King
2002 – Chicago
2001 – Moulin Rouge (A Beautiful Mind)
2000 – Gladiator
1999 – American Beauty
1998 – Saving Private Ryan (Shakespeare in Love)
1997 – Titanic
1996 – The English Patient
1995 – Apollo 13 (Braveheart)
1994 – Forrest Gump
1993 – Schindler’s List
1992 – The Crying Game (Unforgiven)
1991 – Silence of the Lambs
1990 – Dances with Wolves
1989 – Driving Miss Daisy

We are in the midst of the longest running winning streak for the PGA in their history. Does that mean they’re ripe for an upset? It’s possible. There is something to keep in mind, however, and that’s the big difference between the preferential ballot and the plurality ballot, which can often result in “surge voting.” Both the SAG and the DGA use plurality voting: that’s why it’s possible that neither SAG nor the DGA will pick The Big Short. They might, but they might not. Let’s see how they fare compared to PGA’s reign:

DGA
2014 – Birdman
2013 – Gravity (12 Years a Slave-PGA)
2012 – Argo
2011 – The Artist
2010 – The King’s Speech
2009 – The Hurt Locker
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
2007 – No Country for Old Men
2006 – The Departed
2005 – Brokeback Mountain (Crash-SAG ensemble)
2004 – Million Dollar Baby
2003 – Return of the King
2002 – Chicago
2001 – A Beautiful Mind
2000 – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Gladiator-PGA)
1999 – American Beauty
1998 – Saving Private Ryan (Shakespeare in Love-SAG ensemble)
1997 – Titanic
1996 – The English Patient
1995 – Apollo 13 (Braveheart)
1994 – Forrest Gump
1993 – Schindler’s List
1992 – Unforgiven
1991 – Silence of the Lambs
1990 – Dances with Wolves
1989 – Born on the 4th of July (Driving Miss Daisy-PGA)

So let’s say you’re looking at Spotlight maybe doing what Crash or Shakespeare in Love did — winning the SAG Ensemble award and then taking the Oscar, leaving The Big Short like Brokeback Mountain or Saving Private Ryan. There is a distinct difference in both those cases. Before I tell you what it is, want to take a guess? Most of you will already know that it comes down to the ACE Eddie nom. Remember, both Crash and Shakespeare in Love were nominated for both the Eddie and the SAG Ensemble award. The other big difference is that Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan were being driven by their Best Director’s strength heading into the race. Both Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan were also SAG Ensemble award nominated, unlike The Revenant, The Martian or Mad Max.

Now let’s look quickly at SAG Ensemble award winners over that same period:

SAG Awards Ensemble
2014 – Birdman
2013 – American Hustle (12 Years a Slave-PGA)
2012 – Argo
2011 – The Help (The Artist-PGA/DGA/SAG nommed)
2010 – The King’s Speech
2009 – Inglourious Basterds (The Hurt Locker-PGA/DGA/SAG nommed)
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
2007 – No Country for Old Men
2006 – Little Miss Sunshine (The Departed-DGA/SAG nommed)
2005 – Crash
2004 – Sideways (Million Dollar Baby-DGA/SAG nommed)
2003 – Return of the King
2002 – Chicago
2001 – Gosford Park (A Beautiful Mind-DGA/SAG nommed)
2000 – Traffic (Gladiator-PGA/SAG nommed)
1999 – American Beauty
1998 – Shakesepare in Love
1997 – The Full Monty (Titanic-PGA/DGA/SAG nommed)
1996 – The Birdcage (The English Patient-PGA/DGA-SAG nommed)
1995 – Apollo 13 (Braveheart)

Why do the big guilds matter so much? Because of the sheer massive numbers of industry voters involved. We’re not talking 90 or so HFPA members. We’re not talking 300 or so Critics Choice members. We’re talking:

PGA – 7,000
DGA – 15,400
SAG-AFTRA – 160,000

Those are very big numbers. So why did The Big Short, which seemed like such an unlikely winner (and still does) take the PGA? Because it’s about something important and there is an urgency to vote for it. Spotlight is also about something important, but it has never had that urgency to vote for it unless you were a journalist who felt that getting the story right mattered above all things. Industry people don’t think like that. The Revenant, as brilliant as it is, is polarizing. That hurts it with a consensus vote. That anyone would avoid seeing it, or be put off by the animal deaths is enough to make it polarizing. It is more likely to be a number 1 vote than a number 2 vote. Ditto Mad Max. It could be a number 2 or 3, but if you’re number 2 you’re probably looking at a ballot that has The Revenant at number 1. A ballot that has Spotlight at number 1 is more likely than not to have a drama with actors and a good script at number 2. And the reverse would be true. Someone with Spotlight at number 1 might have The Big Short at number 2. So what separates them? Urgency to vote. The Wall Street meltdown. Maybe the Bernie supporters put it over the edge, maybe the Brad Pitt/Christian Bale/Ryan Gosling fans did. I love how people say it’s a film that appeals to males forgetting how many women out there drool over those guys. People ask me why I love The Big Short so much. Part of it is that it has an immersive, complex, complicated, intricate screenplay where new discoveries can be made on repeated viewings (my favorite kind of movie). But if you’re going in on the basis of eye candy alone, well, need I say more?

Even still, nothing can really explain The Big Short’s rise compared with what pundits were thinking. It really is like last year’s Birdman’s win. That we didn’t see it coming means we are not paying attention — but have become too insular, too group-thinky and need to take a hard lesson from these past two years.

All of this to say that nobody knows anything. The SAG Awards could indeed produce a surprise winner other than The Big Short this weekend. I have no idea how this thing is going to go. I am just holding on to the stats, as I’ve been doing from the beginning, pretending to be Nate Silver, and see where this whole thing ends up.

I would not necessarily recommend following the stats as I’m doing. Predicting the Oscars often takes more than stats, and we’re heading back into plurality vote territory as opposed to the preferential — thus, anything can happen. Surges can happen.