Predictions Friday: Nate Parker and the Vicious Circle

A few media outlets have contacted me to talk about the Nate Parker assault allegations from 1999, and whether or not the studio, Fox Searchlight, can recover, whether the film will still be viable for Oscars or not. As a veteran Oscar watcher of almost 20 years, I can only give my own perspective based on recent awards race controversies.

In 2015, the film Suffragette and its lead performer, Carey Mulligan, were hit hard with a “controversy” complaint that that the film involved no women of color (in a story that takes place in England before women had the right to vote). This quickly turned into a wave of anti-“white feminism” that utterly destroyed the film for its target audience (women). To make matters worse, some of the cast, including Meryl Streep, posing for a publicity shoot, wore a T-shirt (provided by Time Out London) with a 1913 quote from Emily Pankhurst that dared to have the word “slave” in it. I barely remember it. You barely remember it. Why? Because it barely happened but it happened enough to engage the hive mind long enough. Long enough to destroy the film, and particularly Carey Mulligan’s Oscar chances.

Last year, when the Oscar nominations came down and The Martian and The Big Short looked like strong Best Picture contenders, they were both attacked for being about “white people.” Spotlight, too, featured an all-white cast but it skated through because it was about victims of sexual abuse and these were the good guys. The same month, Charlotte Rampling, considered a threat for Best Actress for her role in 45 Years, gave her opinion about the Academy’s diversity problems in an interview and made what the hive mind interpreted as “racist comments.” Again, who even remembers it? All we know is that Rampling was branded a racist and that was that. She was out as a possible winner. For both Suffragette and 45 Years the damage was done by people poking the outrage monster, making the growls last long enough to ensure that anyone supporting either Rampling or Mulligan would been seen as a racist or a “white feminist” by association. If you go see the movie, you’re a racist. If you vote for the movie, you’re a racist. And that, as they say, was that.

In 2014, Ava DuVernay directed Selma, which earned rave reviews, earned great box office and seemed headed straight for the Oscar race, when suddenly … you guessed it: outrage. A couple of editorials by white male political operatives stirred up a “controversy” that DuVernay had not treated their beloved white icon, LBJ, with enough respect. It was very nearly enough to discredit her and to discredit the film. As it happened, however, the strength of Selma and DuVernay’s direction had a more articulate advocacy base than those who tried to gin up criticism. The only thing the complainers had accomplished, in fact, was to draw attention to the film getting suspiciously shut out in all categories but Best Picture and Best Song. That became the big story that everyone was talking about. Does anyone even remember what film won Best Picture? Just kidding.

In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was all systems go and headed straight for the Oscar race when some controversy bubbled up involving screenwriter John Ridley and director Steve McQueen with regards to screenplay credit, or some such. Who even remembers now? At any rate, 12 Years a Slave could not be sunk with that controversy or any other and, in fact, ended up winning Best Picture, Best Screenplay and Supporting Actress.

In 2012, Zero Dark Thirty entered the Oscar race as strong as any film I’ve seen. Kathryn Bigelow was on target for her second nomination, maybe even second win, when suddenly… Glenn Greenwald and several loud voices on the left began objecting to the film’s implication that “torture led to information.” They claimed emphatically that torture had played no part in the search for Bin Laden. It got so bad that Bigelow herself was branded as a patsy for the CIA. The hysteria ballooned to the point where Academy members, led by Ed Asner, were threatening to boycott the film and boycott the Oscars. By the time they shoved the snake back in the can, it was too late. No one would touch it. Zero Dark Thirty was nominated for five Oscars but only won for Sound Editing. There was another controversy about another film that year, only I bet you don’t even remember it. I barely do. It had to do with a huffy Connecticut congressman, the vote to ratify the 13th Amendment, and there was something involving Doris Kearns Goodwin. Are those enough hints? The hullabaloo was frivolous, but it may have been just enough to give the edge to that film’s rival. No controversy seemed to stick to the ego-stroking story of how Hollywood Rescued the Iranian Hostages (even though there was a pretty good one attached to it that got cauterized and band-aided before awards season started). Argo won the day.

in 2011, The Help appeared on course to be the first film in Oscar history to earn both a lead and a supporting win for two African American actresses. It looked very strong indeed. It had made a lot of money, had a lot of juicy roles – When Suddenly… you guessed it. The Help was attacked by black and white critics alike for its depiction of black women as maids, yet again. Naturally, who paid the price for that controversy? It wasn’t the studio, who made shitloads of money. It wasn’t the film’s director, Tate Taylor – he’s gone on to direct The Girl on the Train. Nope, it was an actress who was penalized, specifically Viola Davis who won the SAG award and then lost the Oscar. Had she won, she would have been only the second black actress to win an Oscar in a leading role in 85 years.

The manufactured controversies go on and on, as far back as we want to go, from the attacks about inaccuracy in Russell’s Crowe’s portrayal in A Beautiful Mind (didn’t matter; A Beautiful Mind won Best Picture), or attacks about inaccuracy in Denzel Washington’s Hurricane (he lost). Sometimes controversy sticks, sometimes it doesn’t.

Most of our early predictions up to this point had Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation front and center. Coming out of Sundance, the buzz was deafening. Arriving in a year when the Academy has gone to great lengths to make their voting body more diverse, Parker’s film looked to be an excellent answer to “Oscars So White.” And then the other shoe dropped.

For now, due to the story we’ve been covering all week, we will be removing The Birth of a Nation from our contender tracker. This is probably the biggest controversy I’ve ever seen hit the Oscar race. Part of that is because it’s 2016 and not 1999, the year I started watching the race and blogging about it. 15 years ago, something like this might have been managed. Today, social media will not permit it.

There are five key points to make up front and I’ll try to be as clear and as succinct as possible and then go on to further explain each point in more detail below.

But first, a disclaimer: we’re not here to tell you not to be outraged, or to brush this under the rug, or to never watch another film by Nate Parker again in your life. That’s all up to you. If you want to help ensure he gets no credit whatsoever as an artist this year, or maybe ever, that is also your choice.

The producer of The Hunting Ground wrote a guest column in the Hollywood Reporter where she says:

No one wins when we whitewash history. Parker’s film eloquently testifies to this and asks us to look at the ways in which America’s history of racial injustice is not something only of the past, but toxic, alive and present. Its ghosts — mass-incarceration, police brutality, gang violence, economic inequities — are its festering manifestations.

Don’t we owe the same to survivors of sexual assault and their relentless ghosts? Shouldn’t these crimes be examined and these stories told with same unflinching honesty and candor?

In other words, she doesn’t want to see the studio mincing words. The problem is that Nate Parker continues to maintain his side of the story. In order for the studio to do as Amy Ziering and others want them to do, they would have to override what Parker is saying. Ziering objects to the use of the word “incident” and would prefer either rape or sexual assault, I’m guessing. Remember, in the court of public opinion in 2016 everyone is judge and jury. They all read the court transcripts and witness testimonies and quotes from family members and come to their own conclusions. For many, it doesn’t really matter what Parker says or what the studio says, because the court of public opinion sees this as a rape of an unconscious woman who fell into a deep depression afterwards, suffering emotional scars and PTSD, was never was able to maintain her sanity, and eventually took her own life.

Now that we’ve made that point, let’s deep dive into whether or not this will ultimately impact the film — since reporters keep calling me to ask that question. It’s a complex question that requires a complex answer. Here goes.

Five key points to consider:

1. Nobody in this business has ever encountered a situation quite like this.  It can’t be compared to Roman Polanski because social media did not exist then. There was no fast-spreading viral outrage like there is now. Also, Polanski’s victim has gone on to lead a happy and healthy life and she keeps pleading with the public to drop it. Polanski was already established as a well-respected giant in the industry.
2. How we talk about campus sexual assault has changed. It was a hard fight to change minds, but most of us are now looking at events in 1999 through the lens of 2016. Films like the Hunting Ground, and advocacy work by Joe Biden and Lady Gaga, to name a few, have deepened our awareness of the topic.
3. There is a difference between a scandal emerging now and a scandal that breaks in December or January, after Oscar nominations are announced. Maybe that makes a difference. Maybe it doesn’t. In general, scandals that erupt — whether smears by rival studios or publicists, or actual scandals — usually come to light out at the worst possible time. This one is coming in Summer. Will any of this fade by the time Birth of a Nation heads to Toronto? Or will there be protesters holding signs outside the theater the way they did with Zero Dark Thirty.
4. Being a black filmmaker and an actor-turned-director and a relative unknown makes it that much harder to overcome a scandal in a mostly white awards community.  Critics, guild voters, and Academy members range from 70 to 90% white. Race is an undeniable factor, always. Black men have a long history of being treated as criminals just for walking down the street, and the long held fear that they are out to “rape the white women,” forever stoked by white supremacists, is deeply embedded in American culture. That makes Nate Parker’s own experience in coming to terms with his guilt and admitting it publicly all the more difficult.
5. The idea that the awards race is based on likability of star or director has always been one of the biggest problems in how the Oscars are awarded. In fact, it’s the reason why the Academy often ends up honoring innocuous films that do not deserve to win. The voters simply “like” the person whose name is on the ballot. Taking away that part of it makes it almost impossible to win an award. They have to like you. One of the most insidious ways Oscar smear campaigns work is that they’re able to make people not like you. Rumors and whisper campaigns can derail a perfectly deserving contender. It’s easier now than it ever has been because information — and outrage — travels so fast.

Those are the five key points.  The conclusion is that of course the film and every filmmaker in its cast and crew will suffer. This Buzzfeed piece is, I think, is another really well-written one that seems to pinpoint, as the Hollywood Reporter one has done, that the studio’s dodge or Parker’s dodge is the wrong course of action if the end result is redemption. Remember the old “hate the sin, love the sinner” thing? Probably it’s not afforded to black men, I would guess, who have a hard time walking into an elevator with a white woman — even still. It’s a good point to make, but it also must be said that Parker “maintains his innocence.” As anyone who has been acquitted in court would do. Given that, there is only so much the studio can say about what happened in 1999. Right?

But even if Parker had spent time in jail, or if he admitted guilt, does anyone really think there would be forgiveness? Parker could try to turn it all around if he began to speak out against campus sexual assault — talk to athletes about what is and isn’t consensual. He can only do any of that if he demonstrates some accountability for what he’s done. But no matter what he does now, the hive mind will likely not forgive and many would see his effort as pandering for awards or career reasons.

The Buzzfeed piece was right in calling out the original Deadline piece. It was designed for maximum outrage and begged readers to say “how can they think about awards at a time like this?” It was the first foot in the door and it was the wrong foot from a PR perspective. If I were Fox Searchlight, I would feel screwed over by Deadline, who ostensibly were given the story as a positive PR move but instead turned into a trigger for mob panic.

Movie City News’ David Poland has declared Birth of a Nation dead. To quote, “Birth of a Nation died today.”

The truth of it is that he’s probably right. On the other hand, though there are many who are secure in their own reactions, there are probably an equal number who don’t know how they feel yet, and perhaps others who feel some sort of conflict in watching the entire film take a dive because of something tragic that happened 17 years ago. On the other hand, human nature is what it is.

Heading into this season, this is likely not the last controversy that will hit the Oscar race or any film headed for Best Picture. There is something about these awards that draws out the same thing a political election does — questions about character issues, race issues, gender issues. It is no surprise that the majority of those knocked out by these investigations are women and minorities. White men tend to take care of their own, or to brush things aside, whereas people of color and women have to really be “perfect” if they are to rise to a place that a white male is traditionally granted, thanks to centuries of entitlement.

Thus, here are our revised predictions, taking The Birth of a Nation out of the top tier for the moment.  We are adding Hell or High Water, which you could call the sleeper hit of the year, or the surprise of the season. It’s a tight Western with depth and high on visuals, and is likely to be a strong favorite by critics at year’s end, I’m guessing. This doesn’t make it a strong contender, but at the moment, it’s up against films that haven’t yet been seen. It’s worth considering.

Best Picture
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
Loving
Arrival
Sully
The Founder
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water

Contenders
The Birth of a Nation
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Queen of Katwe
Miss Sloane
Passengers
LBJ
Allied
Passengers
Invisible Figures
Indignation
Gold
American Pastoral
Jackie
The Girl on the Train

As I was writing these predictions, instinctively it felt wrong to take out what was the strongest contender so far this year, so I think Birth of a Nation should still be listed as a “possible” contender. We have seen that, sometimes, very strong films can overcome whatever hurdles they face.

Best Director
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Jeff Nichols, Loving

Contenders:
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Clint Eastwood, Sully
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Tate Taylor, The Girl on the Train
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Rob Reiner, LBJ
Denzel Washington, Fences
Mira Nair, Queen of Katwe
John Madden, Miss Sloane
Bob Zemeckis, Allied
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Stephen Gaghan, Gold
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actor
Tom Hanks, Sully
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Denzel Washington, Fences

Contenders
Woody Harrelson, LBJ
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Logan Lerman, Indignation
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Nate Parker, Birth of a Nation
Brad Pitt, Allied
Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga, Loving

Contenders
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Emma Stone, La La Land
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Madina Nalwanga, Queen of Katwe
Rachel Weisz, Denial
Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson, Silence
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jeremy Renner, Arrival
Timothy Spall, Denial

Contenders:
J.K. Simmons, La La Land
Tracy Letts, Indignation
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Ralph Fiennes, Bigger Splash

Supporting Actress
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Jennifer Jason Leigh, LBJ
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe

Contenders
Sarah Gadon, Indignation
Laura Linney, Sully
Rooney Mara, Lion