Five Ways the Telluride Film Festival Changed the Oscar Race

I don’t really believe that headline but since Indiewire keeps doing it, I thought we should give it a try.

1. La La Land is a force to be reckoned with like The Artist. I knew La La Land was going to be a player, but I will admit some skepticism when I read the early Oscar columns by Kris Tapley and Pete Hammond on the film’s frontrunner status. And then I saw the movie. And then I talked to people at the festival. Like Spotlight last year and The Artist back in 2011, this is the film almost everyone can agree upon. And it’s the film no one hates. Tom Hanks even sang its praises during a Q&A for Sully, saying that if La La Land can’t succeed and make money, we’re all doomed. Thus, a frontrunner is born — and probably not one that can be easily taken down with too much hype.
2. The Best Actor race is wide open. While Emma Stone seems to be the early favorite for Best Actress at the moment (with plenty more to come, like Viola Davis in Fences and Annette Bening in 20th Century Women, not to mention Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane, and many many more), Best Actor has no current frontrunner, if you consider Nate Parker now out of the race. The strongest contenders at the moment seem to be Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea and Miles Teller for Bleed for This. Tom Hanks is also strong with Sully, his best work in years (even if I think he’s always does great work).
3. Arrival could be a tough sell with the Academy but will go down as one of the best films from this year. Many of the men I spoke with didn’t connect with it. That’s not that much of a surprise, given that Arrival’s main thrust is the primal love a mother feels for her offspring (adopted or otherwise — it’s probably more a female thing). If there were ten nominee slots on the ballot for Best Picture, its chances would go up. The emotional content of the film says that those who love it, really love it, which is a good argument for the film getting in on a preferential ballot. If enough people choose it as their number one of the year, which they might, it has a shot. So I don’t agree with Scott Feinberg in this regard. With the preferential ballot for the nominations for Best Picture, you’re looking for passionate love. True, it should hit its mark with straight, white males above all but that doesn’t necessarily mean it doesn’t have a shot.
4. Up to now, you could expect at most two of the titles seen at Telluride to make it in for Best Picture. If you have  Loving from Cannes, Manchester by the Sea from Sundance possibly making it in, next you have La La Land from Telluride (or Venice/Telluride), you can likely pick one other film with enough push, enough good reviews and enough “buzz” to make it in. Most of those who attended this festival will probably say Moonlight is the other one. I will see it today as I’m not so sure on that yet, despite the buzz. My own personal choice would be Arrival but you have to go with the general consensus (and not what the critics think, but what people walking around think). I could also see Sully and Bleed for This making it in. Bleed for This has a hell of an Oscar story, and with Scorsese’s name attached, that might be enough to propel it. Remember, when it comes to Best Picture at the Oscars — as opposed to any other major awards group — you have to think top five, not top ten. Academy voters get five slots. They start with number one and they work their way down. The counted ballots are more about the top three, but especially the top one. You’re looking for sentences like “that was my favorite film of the year.” Kind of liked, respected … that won’t cut it. They have to love it in some way. The Producers Guild, by contrast, gets ten slots on the nominations ballot and thus, they have more freedom to chose various types of films. At the PGA, respected and liked do come into play. SAG, DGA and every other group do not use the preferential ballot.
5. Rooney Mara made an impact with her work in Una, a film that disturbed many who saw it. The one thing they all agree on, though, is that Mara is brilliant in the role. That definitely puts her in the conversation, along with Amy Adams and of course, the new frontrunner, Emma Stone, for a nomination. Although Una was a difficult sit, you did not get the same kind of fretting on whether it will play or not that Arrival did, but this is a film that will sharply divide audiences. Some will use it, as the LA Times has, as a way to drive yet more grief Nate Parker’s way (pile on!), others will use it to think-piece their own traumatic experiences at the hands of sexual predators. By the way, in 2016, the term “sexual predator” is overused. It has become a catch-all to point the finger and call anyone and everyone a monster. In fact, the truest form is what is at play in Una. A predator is someone who stalks and grooms with the sole intent of taking from a child. It is an insult to the those victims of sexual abuse to water down the term. What makes Una great is what makes it awful. Sexual predators (the real kind) rarely appear to be monsters to the outside world. In fact, they often come across as sweet and kind and sometimes even sexy. That can often lead to confusing feelings from the victims who grapple with having been naturally aroused by an unhealthy and illegal interaction. At the same time, in showing us this circumstance, the film also fetishizes that relationship, particularly with lingering shots of a 12 year-old girl’s face and body. Either way, Una will open a can of worms and that only propels Rooney Mara’s chances higher as the film is talked about at length online.