Top Five Ways the Golden Globes Might Shift the Oscar Race

The Golden Globes will be held this Sunday, and it will either confirm what we know or shift the race in a different direction. The Globes are hit and miss in terms of predicting the Oscars, but there is no denying their power, especially right now since they’re going to be held right in the middle of Oscar voting:

Ballots go out: January 5
Golden Globes: January 8
Ballots turned in: January 13

Since the Academy switched to the preferential ballot, only three Globe winners have gone onto to win Best Picture – 3/7. So more films have not won than have won. The winners were: Argo, The Artist, 12 Years a Slave. There is no doubt that what happens at the Globes could greatly impact the Oscar race. The publicity factor alone – if there is some outstanding speech or moment that gets talked about, it could impact Oscar voting, believe it or not.

Best Actress since 2009 has been 100% – who wins at Globes wins at the Oscars. Best Actor, same thing – 100%. Of course, some years it’s difficult – like Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence or George Clooney and Jean DuJardin. In both cases, the comedy/musical winner won. So that’s something to think about. In recent history, these are the most reliable categories.

The Globes might make the difference in terms of how the race shifts. Here are some ideas and predictions to follow:

1) If Mel Gibson wins Best Director or Hacksaw Ridge wins Best Picture – Drama, it will bring down the house. Gibson won Best Director for Braveheart and won almost nothing else. The energy of his winning, his speech, the surprise of it – it would be a very big deal and likely help launch Hacksaw Ridge into the Best Picture race. At any rate, no matter how you slice it it would be great television.
2) La La Land wins Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress – that’s a massive sweep and with the win at the Critics Choice behind it, the box office and critical acclaim, there will likely be no stopping La La Land in terms of buzz.
3) Conversely, if Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea win big in the major categories, that also shifts the momentum in their direction. As it is right now people see this as a mixed bag of wins, spreading the wealth across the board. But if one movie dominates that will be the story coming out of Sunday.
4) If Lin-Manuel Miranda wins for Moana and gets a chance to stand at the mic that’s going to be a big deal — if you’ve ever seen him give an acceptance speech you know what I mean by that. In this post-election season I figure people are going to want to hear what he has to say. He competes against “City of Stars” from La La Land, though, so perhaps this won’t happen.
5) Barry Jenkins, if he wins for Moonlight, becomes the first African American director to win a Golden Globe (possibly writer, too).

Other things to watch for is how people are reacting to and applauding for certain films. You can usually read the room and gauge popularity. We’ll know early on which movie is loved by the crowd there. The speeches are going to be a big deal because now we’re in Trump’s America and out of Obama’s America. I suspect it will be the topic of the night.

Predictions coming soon.