Mank is better than awards season thus far has declared it to be, which should tell you everything you need to know about awards season. Great films are like human relationships. It takes a long time to get to know someone before you really know them well. The more people who get to know movies well, the more those movies resonate over time. A movie like David Fincher’s Mank is like the mysterious party guest who wanders in as someone that some people might write off as distant, opaque, even snooty. It just takes a conversation, the right questions and a little patience and suddenly she’s the only person you remember from the party. Of course, this year’s Oscar race has many interesting guests you’ll remember.
Mank won the ASC prize for Cinematography yesterday at the last of the virtual award ceremonies before final voting closes tomorrow. I imagine most voters have long since made up their minds about what films they will vote for and in which categories. Decades ago, the Oscar race used to roll out slowly like it has this year, and that gave people time to really think about their choices. Of course, how a movie “played” mattered then. How the public thought of the movie, whether there was enough time for a whisper campaign to take hold. When the Academy pushed their date back by one month (roughly 2003 or thereabouts) from March to February, it became a more frantic race to the finish line, with no time to think, no time to care what the public thought – just a speedy process that was practically over before it began. Most people I know who cover the Oscars only know this way to race. They only know a sprint, not the long slow walk.
Still, no one was prepared for the slow race. The machine is still attuned to the fast one. Thus, it isn’t likely for things to really shift as they might have otherwise. There are still categories that feel “open” – and now we know Cinematography is one of those. If only the cinematographers branch alone were voting in that category, Mank might win it. But they don’t. Everyone voters in that category, even actors. Especially actors. Actors love the magic hour and sunset shots, which is why those kinds of films often – but not always – win. It still seems likely, maybe, that Nomadland will win that prize. In 1941 Citizen Kane did not win for Cinematography , How Green Was My Valley did.
It seems fitting that in 2000 I started my website to answer the question as to why How Green Was My Valley (a good film in its own right) beat Citizen Kane (maybe the greatest film ever made). We’re living through a year that answers that question, at least partly. Hearst tried to destroy good will towards Mank and Welles, and the film community continually punishes Netflix for its embarrassment of riches. In other words, does it even have to do with the movies themselves? But also, Kane is a movie that takes years to get to know and appreciate. I can promise you Mank is the same way. That Mank was not nominated for Screenplay and Screenplay was the only Oscar that Kane won is perhaps the biggest irony of all.
Does Mank “deserve” to win Cinematography? Well put it this way. Every frame of the movie is good enough to hang in a gallery. Every. Single. Frame. Does that mean it will win? Well, if you’ve been reading this site for 20 years you already know the answer to that.
Is the race set or wide open?
Best Actress remains a question mark. Viola Davis? Andra Day? Carey Mulligan? Frances McDormand? Given that they might split the vote, maybe Vanessa Kirby will shock everyone with a surprise win.
Editing appears to be open but the ACE gave their prize to The Trial of the Chicago 7, which might be winning Best Picture too in a different kind of year. There are some who believe Trial will pick up a last minute surprise win in the top category based on the amount of guild wins so far. It has won the ACE and the SAG – if it also had the WGA it would be in Parasite/Crash/Shakespeare in Love territory and could win indeed. But it didn’t win the WGA. Promising Young Woman did. So might that movie surprise in the Best Picture category? It might. Without a SAG nom it would have to be Green Book without the PGA.
All points, to my mind anyway, lead back to Nomadland. The reason being that it’s a preferential ballot type of film. Even if it doesn’t win on the first round, it picks up steam on number 2 and 3 votes. No other film in the race will do that. Films are pushed to the top when people want to reward them even if they aren’t their personal favorite. Knowing it’s the frontrunner, they might say — Judas and the Black Messiah was my favorite but Nomadland is great too. That is how the preferential ballot works. Ranked voting means that your second favorite or even third favorite is often your vote that will count. That generally means the more divisive films don’t survive the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
It’s also hard or impossible to assess buzz right now. There is simply no way to really gauge it. Should Nomadland have won the ASC yesterday? Should Promising Young Woman have won the ACE? Are we seeing a shift in mood? Will that impact voting? These are questions we just don’t know yet.
A few people at Gold Derby are predicting The Trial of the Chicago 7 to upset – including Tariq Kahn, Thelma Adams, Tom O’Neil, and Jazz Tangcay. Some even have Minari. It is by no means a massive consensus for Nomadland. I guess that’s because it does not have a SAG nomination. If it does win, it will be the first film since Chicago that really is just about the narrative arc of a female character. The Shape of Water is closer to that but really it is a love story about a captured creature whom we can assume is male. Nomadland, though, is straight up about a woman – a woman who doesn’t need nor want a man. I was talking to my friend about my “kick in the balls” theory about Oscar voters. They don’t like movies that are a “kick in the balls.” I guess we have to ask whether Nomadland is a “kick in the balls.”
You must remember that forgotten Pink Floyd song, “all in all it’s just another kick in the balls”?
There are no more signs to help us out with this. No more awards shows. No clues anywhere. We’ll be building our Big Bad Predictions chart soon and then we can all try to figure it out.
Let’s run a poll, shall we? Who is going to win Best Actress?
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”3″]
“When the Academy pushed their date back by one month (roughly 2003 or thereabouts) from March to February, it became a more frantic race to the finish line, with no time to think, no time to care what the public thought – just a speedy process that was practically over before it began. Most people I know who cover the Oscars only know this way to race. They only know a sprint, not the long slow walk.”
This was the moment the Academy fell foul of the traditional film industry base that kept the OScars afloat since their inception and fuked up their reputation and beginning of seemingly terminal decline of public respectability for once proud all round global – and local event based annual celebration of the best of the best movies of the year…merit was the order..not mathetmatical calculations of preferntial dealings to suddenly make a film on the fatally flawed publicly despised preferential ballot which really is the device that has single handedly undermined the merit principles that once had AMPAS and the public in sync with each other not so desperately terribly out of sync and tune like a piano who’;s wires are crossed and overdue for tuning by about 15 bloody years! suddenly ‘middle c’ become ‘f sharp’ in fact this analogy sums up the sorry state of AMPAS and their completely increasingly unconvincing self validation of what film get the favouritism, what type of film gets the vibe..once in ampas terms ‘middle c’ uses to more often than not be ‘middle c’ and at times in past clearly (sadly) they were far less frequently than they are today offside with communal sentiment, ‘middle c’ was a say ‘b sharp’- namely a slight deviation but not too far from the intended key right?
But now, wires are soo badly crossed..the prefential ballot has all but jeopardized the guiding principles that AMPAS were founded on…out of touch at alarmingly increasingly rate..they AMPAS and the Guilds bear considerable blame for just ‘jumping into bed’ with AMPAS pre awards sentiment let alone the sociological pathological band of critics who time and again ever increasingly distance themselves from communcal public sentiment.
‘Middle c’ on a 15 year out of date overdue to be tuned and repaired near defunct Piano hence has become ‘a big fat F’ there is no structure no order..no logic to how AMPAS drive their decisions..they base it on the opinions of a minority of noisemakers and hellraisers online..and the political ideals of certain troublingly misdirected major press organisations..they no longer base their views objectively and honestly to put themselves in the communities shoes the insightful educated film goer..who does not give a fuk about political driven machinations films are escapism…but i fear soon..inevitably way OSCAR is headed to the cliff to which there be potentially no return if they do not change for better to us…there wont be even any slightest shred of consistency so ‘middle c’ will become ‘e’ some years , ‘f’ on others…’d sharp’ following year and bounce up and all around…this is the cliff ledge precipice AMPAS are edging ever closer to falling off.
A win for Mank would be repairing the questionmarks over oscars judgement for one most profound thought provoking significant soci- cultural films in AMPAS history in Citizen Kane..i only seen it once..but i surely see it again…I still have some misgivings about AMPAS mentality of retracing the past through a new film to correct mistake of a past opportunity..indeed,, Sasha many of us would not mind what seemingly is a ‘head from the clouds’ victory for best pic for Mank,..if anything you could argue AMPAS would stanmd up and resist the political pressures from social media militia gangs and the socialist far lefties… to embrace a film on merit..once agan…i cant see MANK but i sure hell will wqhen i can afford netflix. (but atm my priorities are Disney plus and Amazon prime..
It a bit of a shame Sasha you yet to seize rightfully on the true focus and hence reason that if any film earnt and read the times better than any other film this year..marginally ahead of Promising Young Woman following the landmark historic verdict of murder trial against George Floyd, it is of course Trial of the Chicago 7 and you know what? this is a scenario that is ironic..AMPAS would have to ignore there own precedent and break rules- guiding ethical principles which they tear up when it suits them to our deteriment to give Trial of Chicago 7 best picture win…
That what you call ironic..and thing bout them maybe MAYBE 1/100 chance sadly though not.. impossible! 😉 of AMPAS just reinventing each awards season and precedents in awards seasoin as they see fit is funnily enough..Trial of Chicago 7 winning, at least show us some common sense…and though it not my preferred overall film to win best picture easilyt..i think we all be thankful OScar saved their hide if they go this path…cos it will at least ensure with some logic, based on real events transpiring in aftermath of yesterdays verdict, that, indeed if their choice makes sense to most of us then they get slightly closer to the keys nearer toi ‘middle c’..and that far better than a ‘F flat’ which in more ways than one is where AMPAS is heading …
had it not been for the pref ballot and the 2 nd finish 3rd finish preference election style bullshit policy of AMPAS than perhaps we have more sense of reason and we show respect to AMPAS choices inevitably possibly? to be..
This may also get re-posted a bit…
Results – 10th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation
I must say the results here were quite surprising!… The stat about the second-placed movie in my simulation not winning Best Picture is about to go down, or else this is the final clue that Nomadland somehow isn’t winning Best Picture. Because of the way this went (detailed below), though – and many other things, of course -, I’m still thinking it’s the former. Anyway…
There were 70 eligible ballots this year (some just had contenders missing that were too key, and I’ve never counted those, so I figured I should stick to the same routine, for the sake of historical relevance):
– 30 from the Movie Awards Redux forums;
– 26 from Awards Daily;
– 14 from Twitter (thanks to Ryan Adams’ gracious help).
For the record, the favorites of each of these groups (in terms of first place votes alone) were:
Movie Awards Redux – 1. The Father (11 votes) 2. Promising Young Woman (7) 3. Minari (4) 4. Nomadland (3), etc. (These were also the top 4 in the overall vote.)
Awards Daily – 1. Promising Young Woman & Nomadland (5) 3. Mank (4) 4. The Father, Minari & Sound of Metal (3 each), etc.
Twitter – 1. Promising Young Woman (5) 2. Nomadland (4) 3. Minari (3) 4. The Father & Judas and the Black Messiah (1 vote each)
Without further ado, here is how the preferential count went:
Round 1
Promising Young Woman 17
The Father 15
Nomadland 12
Minari 10
Sound of Metal 5
Judas and the Black Messiah 5
Mank 5
The Trial of the Chicago 7 1 OUT!
Round 2
Promising Young Woman 17
The Father 15
Nomadland 13 (+1)
Minari 10
Sound of Metal 5 OUT!
Judas and the Black Messiah 5 OUT!
Mank 5 OUT!
Round 3 (5)
The Father 21 (+6)
Promising Young Woman 18 (+1)
Nomadland 17 (+4)
Minari 14 (+4) – OUT!
Round 4 (6)
The Father 28 (+7)
Nomadland 22 (+5)
Promising Young Woman 20 (+2) – OUT!
Round 5 (7)
THE FATHER 36 (+8)
Nomadland 34 (+12)
Amazing how well The Father did (clearly no thanks to Twitter, although I guess since this was ultimately decided by one vote, maybe) – it picked up tons of votes on redistribution and was surprisingly in the top 2 from the beginning. Also weird (though not terribly surprising) how Promising Young Woman was so clearly ahead in the first round but consistently picked up the least votes in each round and thus finally bowed out in third, its votes going mostly to Nomadland, but not quite to the extent required to overtake The Father, which had quickly taken over from Promising Young Woman, earlier in the count. Still, The Father is pretty much completely ruled out by the stats for the Oscar win and Nomadland did do extremely well in redistribution, second only to The Father in that respect… I don’t know what to make of this. I have to admit I did not expect Nomadland to come in second, of all places… What do you guys think?
The (updated) history:
2011 The Social Network —— details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ———- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road —– 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ——————– 46-14 over The Irishman *
2021 The Father —————– 36-34 over Nomadland
* Three Billboards was tied with Call Me By Your Name at the moment when one had to be eliminated in third place (on tiebreaks). 1917 was three votes behind The Irishman when Parasite reached 50%+1 of the votes, but was ranked ahead of The Irishman on just as many ballots as not (30-30), so it, too, was extremely close to coming in second place. (Only Parasite’s utter domination – the most crushing win ever seen in one of these -, which took away most of the ballots, probably prevented it from at least tying for second.)
Thank you Claudiu! Looks like PYW was too controversial to win on this Preferential Ballot while Nomadland is certainly a consensus pick (I don´t know if we can deduce a similar situation for the Academy Ballot, but Nomadland already looked like the Best Picture winner before and this outcome won´t make me reconsider it). Very happy (and surprised) about the huge support for The Father (I had it in 2nd position) but also quite surprised that “Sound of Metal” didn´t do better – the discussions here at AD gave me the impression that it´s one of the most popular candidates this year but it goes to show that the AD comment sector is not representative.
Yeah, this seems to settle the matter of Promising Young Woman once and for all… Movies that have followed such a divisive trajectory in my simulation have never won, as far as I can remember. (I should perform a more thorough stats investigation into these at some point – for this stat and potentially others.) And yes, apart from coming in the dreaded second position, Nomadland’s performance looks perfect as an argument for it winning the big Oscar.
Same here on Sound of Metal. 🙂 Wasn’t even top 3 in the AD-only rankings – first place votes! (Although this is, it’s true, only based on a one or two vote-difference.)
Weird how the Oscars are a week away and I haven’t seen one advertisement. I guess whatever channel its on they don’t want anybody to watch.
Mulligan won best actress by a wide margin on Gold Derby. Don’t know if it means much but I’ll take any win at this point!
PYW came second to Nomadland. Also of interest
I finally watched Time. I really didn’t like it at all. I couldn’t sympathize with this couple.
Spoilers ……
They robbed a bank, with a gun. Shots were fired. And he didn’t accept the plea bargain. Plus apparently they threatened some jury members as well. I think 20 years is what he deserved. Plus she called someone who worked at the court house as retarded and mocked her. I don’t know. Of the thousands of people who are in jail for small crimes and who are stuck in the system they sure picked the wrong couple to make a film about.
I agree with this.
Well, I guess my comment got lost in the moderation pile because I linked the trailer…
I just wanted to share, in an Off-topic post, my excitement concerning Leos Carax’ Annette, with Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard, as the opening film at Cannes next july.
Apologies to the admins.
No worries, I’m sure they will give us a Cannes Thread soon. It’s good to show there’s interest.
If I had to chose between Cannes and the Oscars… I’d probably get kicked out of here. Just saying.
nobody will chose Oscars this year so don’t worry.
or you might win a medal !
You think so ? I was not even nominated to SAG !
Odd, I didn’t notice this before I posted the trailer in another thread and that seemed to go through without problems
Yeah, don’t know what happened. Anyway, I can’t describe the joy I felt when I saw that “6 juillet”. Cinemas have been closed since late october in here… I’m counting the days.
Cannes’ line-up will be announced 27th may.
I guess Verhoeven, Weerasethakul, Dumont, Moretti and Hansen-Love will also be there.
Supposedly Dumont will go to Venice but otherwise those seem pretty solid
sorry, I forgot to check the pending approval folder in Disqus today!
thank you for the heads up.
& yes, let’s all be thankful that we will soon escape from this hellish awards season and be ready to dive right into the next one.
Anonymous Oscar voters
Picture: Minari 2, Nomadland 1
Director: Zhao 2, Zhao/Fennell “toss up: 1
Actor: Hopkins 2, Ahmed 1
Actress: Mulligan 1, McDormand 1, Day 1
I’ve always ignored the secret ballots because I think they choose ones with out of the box choices.
Last year they did point to Parasite though
TBH, Parasite was pointed out by much more than just Oscar Anons. And they didn’t predict Bong but only the Picture.
I have always ignored them but last year they did show a trend.
They are always certainly chosen for a bit of shock value, no ones going to believe Minari is ahead of Nomadland
Agreed, they are chosen for shock value and a broken clock is right twice a day. So Parasite call was one of those 2 times that broken clock is right. 🙂
A sample of THREE. I’m trembling with excitement. 🙂
They choose to publish the ones that the voters speak honestly and provocatively and thus make good headlines.
What pointed to a Parasite win last year was how 1917 only had one support (less than Hollywood) and Parasite had like 15.
I was thinking about documentary short: from what I’ve observed the two frontrunners seem to be Do Not Split and A Love Song for Latasha. However, I feel like at least based on what I’ve read about the previous winners, every one is either eventually hopeful and upbeat or is about surviving through something (the only one in the previous decade that I have doubts about in terms of this is The White Helmets, I don’t remember where that movie closes that well) and aren’t both of these frontrunners more downbeat. A Love Song for Latasha felt like an act of mourning whereas Do Not Split doesn’t really feel that upbeat either. On some level I feel like something like A Concerto Is a Conversation or Colette (which while of course being about something incredibly sad and heavy is still a story about survival and intergenerational connection) would fit that much better. And then there’s Hunger Ward, the only movie that works for the 40 minute rule, but that sounds like the bleakest one (it’s the only nominee in this category I haven’t seen)
They save the baby from the wreckage in The White Helmets, no? (Not sure if that’s how it ends, but that’s the main thing that happens.) But, yeah, it’s pretty bleak, overall…
“There are no more signs to help us out with this. No more awards shows. No clues anywhere.”
Weeell… The Indie Spirits… Could be more telling this year… (A lot of key Oscar nominees are up for those, more than usual.)
I think so. Many expect Carey to win there. And she makes sense there, but Ma Rainey’s is the one with the Best Picture nomination. I expect Emerald will win for her screenplay either way though. But it will be interesting to see the first rematch of 3 of the frontrunners since the SAG. The Oscar winner never loses Best Actress in this category if nominated. If the Oscar winner isn’t in contention, they still go for the next in line (i.e., the next most likely to win the Oscar). So I’m inclined to predict the winner there for the Oscar.
I noticed the same thing. 🙂 Whoever loses there could be in trouble…
For what it is worth Tom O’Neil and Nathaniel Rogers each have 15 for 17 years correct in Best Actress. As of yesterday O’Neil has Mulligan and as of 3/18 (no updates yet) Rogers had McDormand. Gregory Ellwood at 12 for 14 and also last posted 3/18 has Mulligan. He was the only pundit I track who correctly predicted Olivia Coleman for The Favorite. For comparison Pete Hammond and Anne Thompson both have 12 for 17.
This is extremely encouraging! (I’m rooting for Mulligan above anything else at this year’s Oscars.)
About the article that just went up – I had actually done the research for this days ago, long before I first read your great comment here. I just didn’t have time (incredibly busy Oscar week for me this year, unlike any other year) to actually turn it into a coherent article until a few days ago, when I gave it to Ryan. (Who can attest to the whole timeline.)
You probably still discovered this stat long before I did, of course. 🙂 I just wasn’t aware of it. Don’t want you to think I lifted your idea and passed it off as my own – that’s why I’m writing this. I would never do that. I detest such moves…
Not at all! Great minds! I’ve been waiting since BAFTA for the Indie Spirits, particularly for their Best Actress. They have some Academy overlap and arguably less bias in the acting races than SAG or certainly BAFTA! You look at most of their winners of late, and it’s not like they default to a more “independent” choice than the Academy. They’re the last stop on the road to the Oscars. So I look forward to reading your article right now!
I, for one, had forgotten that so many big Oscar players had been nominated here. 🙂 I only rediscovered it a week or two ago, which is when (and why) I decided to look into it more closely.
“They have some Academy overlap”
Really? I had no idea. Very good thing to know…
“and arguably less bias in the acting races than SAG or certainly BAFTA!”
Exactly, another reason they may well be more telling than they appear. Also, they’re voted on right at the end, like the Gold Derby Awards, so they’re indicative of the situation at just the right time, during actual Oscar voting… (Not the case for any of the big precursors.) These are the reasons I like to pay close attention.
Re: overlap, I wrote that colloquially, so I don’t know the stats. But I’ve always assumed the Film Independent members are (predominantly) independent filmmakers. Am I right? If so, that provides us with our only other major American or British industry-wide awards precursor other than BAFTA. And yes, this year there must be more ISA nominees as actual Oscar nominees than ever.
And the Gold Derby Awards. 🙂
Oh yeah, exactly! Forgot about them, for some reason – they’re not usually quite this late, I think…
Just curious – is anybody actually not going with Nomadland as their official Best Picture prediction? Always interesting to see if and how many people are predicting an upset. I know at least one person, I think, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a second one here.
Judas might surprise people on Sunday
Judas is not even top 3 IMO
I don’t think people realize how many people like Judas. It i actually has the highest rated audience score out of the 8 films that are nominated for best picture
My simulation (which I’m about to finish tabulating and post about) doesn’t have it doing so well, it seems. Middle of the pack, at best. (Not yet reached its elimination point, so maybe it has a late surge, I don’t know – have had to do this in bits and pieces this year, due to work and other commitments.)
Of course, this is 70-odd people. 🙂 Just a very rough poll. But I’m just saying, you’d normally expect it to do a bit better if it really was that popular…
I’m with Nomadland as predix for BP
I’m going with trial of the Chicago 7 because it won sag ensemble
Actually, I would say that’s not even the main reason to go with it, if one decides to – it was the pretty clear stats favorite for that, plus SAG is terrible on its own at predicting BP. I would say it’s more about its having the screenplay credentials to some extent (due to the Globe win) and overperforming the most out of all BP contenders in the less important guilds (ACE is somewhere in-between the big 4, PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, and the tech guilds).
I’d like to see the Billie Holiday movie, but I don’t want to see it on Hulu. Anyone have suggestions for watching it?
I do wish it was on Blu-ray or DVD to buy at the least! (So sick of these proprietary media)
If Chicago 7 wins, I’m sure it will be seen as a slap in the face in some quarters to minority talent. I’m more in the camp that it would be a slap in the face to quality filmmaking and the rapidly lost art of nuance in screenwriting.
I don’t know why everyone is missing the most blatant 92 year bit of historical fact. The Oscars have NEVER awarded in any of the four acting categories, back-to-back musical performances. This automatically eliminates Davis and Day. Also, there has never been an Oscar awarded to a performance in a film that was never shown theatrically, so Day is out again. And then of course is the stat about actor and actress winning from the same film without a BP nomination. Never happened. Davis is out again. McDormand will get her Oscar for producing because she ain’t no Olivier.
That leaves one obvious choice…
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6b46cd5255f6e2e5b0c7400f4f3c248efe324f9c924c00464f2cb34bc6be1b1.gif .
ok but those 1st 2 stats are laughable
Yet indisputable.
well find me a year when there could have been the 2nd consecutive best actress in a musical biopic and I will determine whether fatigue with the genre was a reasonable basis for the given outcome. P.S. I’m predicting Carey unless she loses IFCA. I find it hard to believe that (1) Chad will lose or (2) both lead acting awards will go to films not nominated for Best Picture, let alone the same such film.
Look, I would vote Mulligan because it’s the best of the five performances. Not sure why her campaign collapsed the way it did. BUT, I’m not sure why there is in some quarters such open disrespect for 7 time nominee twice winner McDormand. Pretty much when you get past three nominations, folks might suspect you can act.
I think you do know why.
For a lot of people it’s not enough to champion their favorites and talk about why they’re great. They also need to deride and insult the competition. The Mulligan stans have been particularly egregious this year, but it happens all the time. It’s the worst part of following the awards race (besides the non sequitur political bullshit, although that’s closely related to the same issue).
YES. THIS. Every. Damn. Year.
The only “arguments” against McDormand that I have seen are “they won’t give her the third so soon because it took Streep X number of years”. and “production Oscar will be her award”. Unconvincing to say the least. I’m rooting for Mulligan but McDormand taking Actress AND Picture (aka 3d and 4th) would be amazing for meltdowns.
Didn’t Hilary Swank win 2 or 3 awards?
2. Good point. Nobody went oh no no no she’s equal with Streep then.
Hey, those are excellent observations. But you know, I just did some research, and turns out in 92 years the Academy has never awarded actresses with a double LL letter in last name back-to-back so that eliminates Mulligan. Also there’s never been a case where actresses won three times in a row for a movie with a one-letter title, so there goes McDormand. I also found that there’s never been a black Best Actress winner after a musical win so Day and Davis are also out. That leaves one obvious choice: Vanessa Kirby.
3BBOEM has so many words though
Olivia De Havilland and Judy Holliday won back to back. As Ricky Roma once said, where’d you learn your trade?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d25cef0eca728349aa3cee351f1d65cc1ff5b4ff6b4aa6151dd23b2461235fc.gif
Out of how many instances in which there were such nominees back-to-back? Because, for musical performances, I bet there are a lot…
Hulu should follow Netflix and at the least show their movies for a week in theaters.
That’s a very interesting stat… Noted. I was starting to move back towards Mulligan as my intuitive prediction anyway – this solidifies that. (Not that I necessarily won’t change my mind again later, of course. Especially if she loses on the 22nd.)
The best thing Carey has going for her to win (outside of the obvious fact that she’s fantastic) is the possibility of Davis and Day splitting votes for arguably similar roles and the potential push for (finally) having another black Best Lead Actress winner. The latter point might end up meaning absolutely nothing or everything in Careys chances of winning.
But in truth Mulligan does have history against her with the GG-SAG-BAFTA troika.
“All points, to my mind anyway, lead back to Nomadland. The reason being that it’s a preferential ballot type of film” Yep, this sounds like the most salient argument.
It’s definitely losing its lead, but I don’t see any chatter of voters deliberately putting it at the bottom of their ballots which is what killed Three Billboards and Roma.
Sobering article from the NY Times and politics is involved: The Oscars Are a Week Away, but How Many Will Watch? https: // www. nytimes. com /2021 /04 /18 /business /media /academy-awards-tv-ratings-audience.html
People watch if they’re invested in a movie. And there haven’t been a lot of movies to be invested in because they’re released all over the place. This one on Hulu, that one on Disney, that one over there on Netflix. And people usually just have ONE service, they don’t have 4 and 5 services. What’s the point of having cable if you have to alacarte the viewing services? The producers and actors are getting rich off the streaming services, so they don’t care. The good thing about releasing to theater is the boxoffice receipts. It lets you know what the public likes and who’s winning.
Probably the last thread I post this to – so, last call, I guess!… 🙂
I apologize for posting this in as many different places as possible, which I do for obvious reasons! It’s easy to skip over, anyway, once voted.
Hey, guys! It’s that time again… 🙂 All who have seen each of the eight Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year (or, at the very least, all but Mank – which, unfortunately, clearly has no shot at winning either here or at the Oscars – and maybe Judas and the Black Messiah – which probably also hasn’t got much of a chance, although this is less clear) are warmly invited to post their ranked ballots (personal order of preference, of course, not winning chances) in reply to this comment (to facilitate tabulation at the end), for the 10th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation I will have run – with many thanks, of course!…
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I’m probably going to keep voting open until Monday, which coincidentally is roughly equivalent to the Oscar voting period. I usually do this right after BAFTA but, even so, this has never quite happened before. [UPDATE: I saw the two I was missing – this is my vote:]
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Nomadland
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. The Father
5. Mank
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Sound of Metal
8. Minari
The most interesting thing about this simulation, as past contributors will remember, is that there is now a running seven-year streak (arguably eight, as Silver Linings Playbook didn’t necessarily do worse than Argo’s other challengers in 2013 at the Oscars) of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either in second or virtually tied for second place in this as well. (Details below. As can be seen, the Oscar-winner has come in first before, three times. But never in second – 0/9…) The beginning of this streak coincides with the year I started holding these simulations at both Awards Daily and on the old IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only collected votes at IMDb.) Obviously, this year looks like the most locked-in one (in Best Picture) since at least the Argo year. Personally, I don’t quite consider either that or Nomadland locks – like The Artist or The King’s Speech, for example -, but both were mighty close, despite their two respective stats-relevant misses (Argo, being snubbed for directing, Nomadland, not getting either the ensemble mention or at least two acting nominations at SAG, a tally which only Braveheart could not match or trump, out of all of the SAG era Oscar Best Picture winners). So, I would say it’s still not 100% clear that Nomadland will win (and we’ve certainly been given plenty of reasons to almost always doubt the front-runner the last 6-7 years) and it might help to know which movie is not likely to upset it (as per this stat about coming in second place in this simulation), plus it’s always nice to get a clearer picture about what you guys all think are the best of the nominees. 🙂
The history:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ——————- 46-14 over The Irishman *
* Three Billboards was tied with Call Me By Your Name at the moment when one had to be eliminated in third place (on tiebreaks). 1917 was three votes behind The Irishman when Parasite reached 50%+1 of the votes, but was ranked ahead of The Irishman on just as many ballots as not (30-30), so it, too, was extremely close to coming in second place. (Only Parasite’s utter domination – the most crushing win ever seen in one of these -, which took away most of the ballots, probably prevented it from at least tying for second.)
1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. The Father
5. Nomadland
6. Promising Young Woman
7. Trial
8. Judas
Here’s to another “Fincher year” down the fucking drain. But in defence of the Academy, this time
he didn’t hand them an easy one to rally behind. Lets hope “The Killer” is something more of a crowdpleaser and a back-to-the-basics type of deal for Fincher. Michael Fassbender as an unnamed assassin, Andrew Kevin Walker writing, sounds about right. They might as well change the title to “David Fincher”. On the other hand – a nickname like “The Killer” would suit him just fine 🙂
I’ll choose to believe that that film will be a biopic about the Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney character!
I’m not really sure Fincher’s glum demeanor and boozing during the virtual awards shows helped his cause. Oscar voters like getting their asses kissed and told how capital “i” Important they are. I’m not saying he needs to ‘ho himself out next time around, but maybe not living up to his rep would be more helpful.
If they can’t take a joke and see the irony of him playing the Mank-loose-drinking-game, then fuck them. And aren’t the Golden Globes about drinking anyway? At the end of the ceremony half of them are usually sloshed.
I know the days of not giving a fuck and still winning are long gone, but I still believe he is one of the few, that can still pull off a Coens-type of win.
I know it’s a stupid metric, but being LIKED really does determine winners and losers with these awards
Ma Raineys and Mank, most boring films I have seen In ages, honestly. I did not even watch Mank to the end. Then again, I never liked Citizen Kane. If politics would matter zero, Carey Mulligan would win.
Best song is most interesting category to me this year, Diane Warren and Laura Pausini must win.
I also hope they would give Oscar’s living person only.
If you’re bored by those, rethink your passion.
Well I read the Indiewire “Confidential Oscar Voter” and he agrees with you.
I’ve been saying “Viola Davis will win an Oscar for this!” to anyone who’ll listen ever since I first saw the preview of Ma Rainey back in, I don’t know, November, I guess. it would be very foolish of me to change my bet less than a week from the Oscars, especially in such a wide open race like that. but am I 100% sure of this? no one is. not this year. and I like this feeling of anticipation.
Jack Fincher was the biggest snub of the year.
Something I came across looking at past stats: Every time a film without a SAG Ensemble nomination has won BP, the Ensemble winner didn’t have a Best Director nomination. That bodes well for Nomadland.
Mank is a movie of images that have seared into my brain, of characteristically impeccable Fincher craft, of some very fine performances. But it is also a movie that when it ends, seems to have not yet really begun. If it has been respectfully but not passionately received, this is why. Storytelling is still king, and sadly, the storytelling here is a wandering mess. The caliber of the talent involved might tempt you to doubt yourself if this was your reaction to the film. Don’t. It’s an achievement on many levels, but not in terms of its storytelling. This is probably why it failed to get a screenplay nomination against some lower-radar contenders, and why it isn’t going to win any above-the-line categories. It’s not because of Netflix, or any other political reason. It is indeed about the movie itself, and its failure in this regard.
Speak for yourself. The story is the shit behind the scenes, the political machinations of Hearst and Hollywood. It’s a fascinating story and one incredibly relevant to 2020, in more ways than one.
He didn’t say anything about the story, but the storytelling.
I think everyone here is speaking for themselves?
‘Story’ (the subject) is of course different than storytelling (the way it is told). As Roger Ebert said: a movie isn’t about what it’s about, it’s about how it is about it. Hearst, Hollywood, behind the scenes, political machinations–yes indeed, all fascinating things, but a hodgepodge of themes in search of a clear narrative does not coherent storytelling make.
Pretty tired of people calling a narrative “incoherent” because they personally couldn’t follow it. That script is airtight.
Pretty tired of people who are unable to engage in a productive disagreement without resorting to personal attacks.
Frances McDormand.
Her BAFTA win is significant. Oscar voters do not care who else was in the category who the jury snubbed. The news of the day was: Frances McDormand won the BAFTA for Best Actress.
She was comfortably the runner-up at SAG. 2 Lead Actress wins proves that. Resoect and love.
I believe her BAFTA win and the love fir Nomadland will push her over the edge.
“She was comfortably the runner-up at SAG. 2 Lead Actress wins proves that”
Do you have Sidney Powell on speed dial?
Oh, Best Actress. Sigh. 4 of the main contenders have a shot and each one has pluses and minuses as to who will get the most votes among them.
Mulligan has CC and AACTA. She likely just missed the Globe win, perhaps didn’t lose by much with SAG (and who knows how many of those SAG actors are in AMPAS), and she probably would have won BAFTA in a normal voting year.
Davis won SAG. That’s obviously big. But SAG loves Viola. And now that AFTRA makes up a percentage of voters there, is it as big as it used to be? She has only won SAG.
Andra Day. She won the Globe. Who knows by how much? I don’t know if that buzz has sustained over the last month or so for a win. Maybe? It is always difficult when the contender is the only nominee for their film; and the film has not done well anywhere. And the fact that she missed a SAG and BAFTA nod hurts (she is not a Regina King industry veteran type).
Frances McDormand. She’s a beloved AMPAS fave in the BP fave. And she won BAFTA. We cannot discredit that. And yet, I feel like them giving her the win a few years ago might be enough “for now”.
Also regarding Viola Davis. She has some AACTA support . And BAFTA loved her enough to nom her for Widows a few years back. I think she’ll have ‘some’ international support, but still think Mulligan has the edge there.
We just have no clue who has the edge and where. Who are the sound mixers going to vote for? Who are the Executives going to vote for? Who are the visual effects members going to vote for? x 9,000.
When only 1,000-ish (or less) people in AMPAS are actually the SAG voters who voted for the SAG awards and for Viola, and when 1,000-ish (or less) AMPAS members are BAFTA voters … how does one surmise how the other 7,000 or so are going to vote? It’s all fascinating.
When it comes down to a TIGHT race like this, often, the NARRATIVE is what wins the day. Who has a narrative? And does that narrative have a clear path with no road blocks?
“She’s only won SAG.”
Exactly. Problematic.
LOL Frances McDormand is not winning. Who are the crazies that picked her?
If Tariq Khan is predicting ‘Trial’ to upset then there may be something to it. It has been pointed out before that ‘Trial’ has to win the Oscars for editing and screenplay top be taken seriously. Also it would help if Nomadland lost screenplay to ‘The Father’. Editing and cinematography are not such a big deal. The last BP Oscar winner to win editing was ‘Argo’. I will add that before the SAG Awards ‘Trial’ was dead and buried especially after the WGA loss.
Are Academy members a few of whom maybe fell asleep watching ‘Nomadland’ looking for an excuse not to vote for it? They will certainly give Zhao best director.
I feel like IF Trial had won WGA … I might be tempted to predict it for BP/Screenplay/Editing. Or BP and one of those two. I’m right there, but needed that WGA.
Agreed – I wouldn’t have liked it, but I feel like I might have gone with The Trial of the Chicago 7 as the upset with a WGA win, but without it, I think it’s a distant second.
Yup, Tariq AND Tom O’Neill and Thelma Adams are actually rather good at predicting BP. (Although, of course, they, too, get it wrong often enough, like everybody else.) And Jazz probably isn’t bad either. 🙂 Bottom line: this is not to be taken lightly. I think they’ll be wrong, but I don’t think they would predict it if there weren’t some good reasons to do so. They’ve also been talking to some voters, I suspect…
Yeah but Tariq’s rationale is all over the place. I enjoy listening to him, but he and Tom drive me crazy sometimes with all their contradictions.
True, they have their moments of clarity and those of… not so much clarity. 🙂 Like everybody else…
Track record for BP for O’Neil 11 right out of 17 years 1 for last 4. Adams 11 for 17 (65%) BUT 0 for 4 the last 4 years. Khan has Parasite, Roma, (Nothing 2018), La La, Rev, Birdman, Slave or 3/6 and 1/4. Sasha picked both Moonlight and Green Book (2/4.) And Pete Hammond had Shape of Water and Green Book (2/4). Both say Nomadland (as of today). As was noted in the Best Predictors post sometimes people go against the grain and guess right in a given year but don’t have a good track record overall. Sasha has 53% for 17 years for example while Hammond has 59% over 17 years. Nathaniel Rogers has 11/17 as well but only 1/6 the last 6 years. Do you go with long term track record or those who have adapted well to the new ballot and change in Academy membership?
I think a lot of pundits like Khan, O’Neill and perhaps also Adams (not as familiar with her predictions) get a lot of their “hunches” from talking to Oscar voters, and I’d imagine their samples are considerably smaller in doing that this year. This could fill them with false confidence for something like The Trial of the Chicago 7
I’m sticking to my Mulli-guns on this one (apologies) but truth is I just don’t know. McDormand doesn’t seem likely since she’s probably winning BP but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if Kirby pulled a Marcia Gay Harden
Because voting may be split six ways from Sunday.
“McDormand doesn’t seem likely since she’s probably winning BP” – so what? I don’t understand this argument. Bong Joon-ho won four last year so why McDormand can’t win two during one ceremony?
True that her two Oscars might be the problem for her but if they are giving her the third than why not the fourth also? Her husband has four and no one is complaining.
I think my gut prediction might be Mulligan too, in the end. In spite of it all.