What Not and Why Not

I need to post this because Jeff Wells just posted an absurd run-down of why the poll is wrong. He gives various reasons why – most do not hold water — A Single man has “gay-o-vision,” Amelia has been dissed by an “insider” and therefore has no shot. Food, Inc. is a “doc” and therefore has no chance to make the Best Pic cut. Um. Lebanon is a foreign language and therefore won’t make the cut. Um. Sherlock Holmes is a “joke suggestion” – I could go on. But do I really need to?

Here’s a tip, Oscar watchers — anyone who claims to have expert authority on the Oscars is usually one who will end up with egg on his or her face. The good predictors, btw, fly under the radar and do not brag about how good they are.¬† If anyone had the time or energy to go through Jeff Wells’ rundown of the Best Pic poll below — Wells seems to miss the basic idea of the poll, which is to gather up what READERS BELIEVE will be nominated – not a bunch of “Oscar experts” who supposedly have authority — but what the people who hit our site think. That is why he casts a wide net – as opposed to an “Oscar balloon” with all the film he hopes and wants will be nominated or to exhibit some kind of sixth sense about how the Academy will vote.

It is difficult not to get caught up in the trap of what should and what shouldn’t be nominated, I’ll admit to being guilty of this in some respects — I loved In the Loop but it has zero Oscar buzz whatsoever – even in the screenplay category, which it richly deserves (this is why Oscar watching hurts in the end).

Believe it or not there were people telling me Slumdog Millionaire had no chance at Best Picture early on. Those who went to Cannes seemed to write off Campion’s Bright Star but lo! Suddenly great reviews, a strong lead actress, a period piece and suddenly the film has a shot. So, as we always say around here, trust no one. See for yourself, decide for yourself, trust yourself. But if you have to put your faith in someone, there are a few who play the predicting game pretty well — Anne Thompson, David Karger, Damien Bona, Kris Tapley, David Poland and a few others whose names escape me — none of them brag about being good at predicting the Oscars. They are good at it because they keep their hearts entirely out of their decision-making. If your heart gets involved, you may get it wrong on occasion.

I do know, though, that reader polls are interesting to me – they aren’t prediction charts nor do they claim to be. Sheesh.