The Best Bad Idea They Had: Argo Wins the Producers Guild

Best Picture: Argo
Drama Series: Homeland
Doc Feature: Searching for Sugarman
Reality Series: American Masters
Animated Film: Wreck-it Ralph
Comedy Series: Modern Family
PGA competition TV award: Amazing Race
Best Live Talk Show: Stephen Colbert

Earlier predictions and background after the cut.

What: The Producers Guild Awards [nominees]
When: Tonight, starting at around 8pm
Where: Beverly Hilton Hotel

Our predictions:

Lincoln: Sasha Stone, Ryan Adams, Marshall Flores, Scott Feinberg
Argo: Craig Kennedy, Nathaniel Rogers

Which begs the unfortunate question, “Why for instance is this thus, and what is the reason for this thusness?”

Our contest so far has Argo way out front (admittedly, not that many people have entered):

Only one film has ever won the PGA without having a corresponding Oscar nomination for Director and that was Apollo 13, which won the PGA, the SAG ensemble and the DGA before losing Picture and Director to Braveheart and Mel Gibson.

Therefore, many are thinking Argo is popular enough to overcome that, and probably the same people think Affleck will win the DGA. That year the PGA, and Oscar, were dealing with only five nominees, not ten (weighted ballot, not preferential). Like Argo, Apollo 13 had won the Globe for Drama.

But I think to predict the Producers Guild you should think backwards from Best Picture. This is the only reason I am not following the general consensus pick of Argo. I could very well be wrong tonight – and probably will be. But that’s the fun part of Oscar watching – humiliation to your core. You think getting your period in gymnastics class is bad, try getting one of these big predictions wrong.

Over at Gold Derby, you will see it split up as well. Only four of us are thinking Lincoln, the rest are going for Argo.

History after the cut.

First, let’s look at how things look right now, on the eve of the first guild that will likely shift the entire race in one direction, or it will splay it out like a house of cards.

PGA-Producers Guild
WGA-Writers Guild
SAG – SAG ensemble, or nod of any kind
ACE – Editors Guild
DGA-Directors Guild
CAS-Cinema Audio Society
ASC-American Cinematographers Society
ADG-Art Directors Guild

PGA	CAS	ASC	ADG	WGA	SAG	ACE	DGA	Oscar director	Best Picture
Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln	Lincoln
Life of Pi		Life of Pi	Life of Pi	Life of Pi		Life of Pi	Life of Pi	Life of Pi	Life of Pi
Les Mis	Les Mis	Les Mis	Les Mis	Not eligible	Les Mis	Les Mis	Les Mis		Les Mis
Argo			Argo	Argo	Argo	Argo	Argo		Argo
ZDT	ZDT		ZDT	ZDT	Actress	ZDT	ZDT		Zero Dark Thirty
SLP				SLP	SLP	SLP		SLP	Silver Linings
Django	Django	Not eligible	Django	Not eligible		Django			Django
Beasts of the Southern Wild		Not eligible		Not eligible	Not eligible			Beasts of the Southern Wild	Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour		Not eligible		Not eligible				Amour	Amour

But it doesn’t necessarily follow that a film has to have all nominations across all guilds to win – there are some more important than others — SAG ensemble, DGA and Oscar Director among them. It is, needless to say, unheard of in recent years since they expanded Best Picture for a film to win without both the DGA and the Oscar Director nomination.

I will be curious to see how it all plays out this year. But please don’t judge me too harshly if it’s Argo. I use the stats because the stats show how “broad support over all branches” plays out. It doesn’t speak to the heart – and the heart wants what it wants. I am at a loss as to how this will go. There are many out there waiting with pitchforks to shame those of us who have had faith in Lincoln receiving the accolades it richly deserves. And perhaps they will have their chance to party naked, smear themselves with the blood of the lamb and dance around the fire knowing that this great movie took a tumble.

We wait, we wait.

2011