At last night’s packed Academy premiere for The Theory of Everything it became clear that Eddie Redmayne has a good chance of unseating the two frontrunners in the Best Actor race, Michael Keaton for Birdman and Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game.
The way the Best Actor race usually works is that it’s inextricably linked to Best Picture. This is the case almost every year but especially lately. The winning Best Actor is almost always in a Best Picture contender and when he isn’t he’s usually an overdue veteran whose number has at last come up.
The three vying for the Best Actor prize right now are all most likely going to be the stars of three strong Best Picture contenders. Although actor-driven pictures have been slowly declining overall since the 1940s, for both men and women, which would indicate lessening star power over the Oscars, but it’s not such great news for women.
The numbers aren’t as staggering as I thought they’d be when I built the info gram. I was surprised to find that movies up for Best Picture were less likely to have leads nominated and more likely to have supporting actors. The directors more or less took over dominance of the Best Picture race over time, with the lead actors coming in second.
Nonetheless, it seems a safe bet that your three strongest contenders for the Best Actor win are:
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Directly behind those four is the magnificently creepy Steve Carell in Foxcatcher. The tricky part with Carell is this: actors can get kind of snooty when it comes to nominating their own. They prefer actors who came up from theater or film rather than those that came up from comedy. Keaton will get spared because he’s PLAYING an actor, not unlike many of those languishing on the sidelines as superhero movies choke what little is left of serious acting in the film business. They will identify with Keaton’s character and many will vote for him.
On the other hand, Redmayne and Cumberbatch are doing what actors love best – transforming themselves inside of a disability. In Redmayne’s case it’s ALS and in Cumberbatch’s case it’s Asperger’s or mild Autism. That he’s a persecuted gay man living in a time when it was illegal to be gay helps Cumberbatch as well; think of all of the straight actors who have won Oscars playing gay characters.
I figured it was Keaton’s to lose until I actually saw The Theory of Everything. Sure, it isn’t a perfect film. It sanitizes what had to have been far more gruesome of an experience. And there’s a lot of focus on the marriage between Jane and Stephen Hawking. But you know what? That’s the lost art of character building, something often shortcutted out of movies now.
I found myself utterly and completely captivated by Redmayne as Hawking and I’m going to bet a lot of voters will feel that way. It was not just about his transformation into Hawking – it was the warmth, humor and depth he brought to a character who could only move his eyebrows and smile on occasion. I barely recognized Redmayne by the end and really thought I was watching Stephen Hawking. It is a triumph of a performance, among the best of the year and it’s a serious threat to win.
So we have our four – the same four we’ve had for months now – Keaton, Cumberbatch, Redmayne, Carrel. So who’s the fifth? This is the ongoing debate among pundits.
I’m going to bet that Timothy Spall gets in for Mr. Turner because I think, and some others like Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley, that Mr. Turner is going to be very big with the Academy – so much so that 2014 is going to look scarily like a British invasion, with only David Fincher and Bennett Miller holding down the American front right now – but perhaps Angelina Jolie, Ava DuVernay and Clint Eastwood will be around to represent.
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Mr. Turner
Interstellar
Are all films by British directors – three of which are about famous British people!
That is going to make the BAFTAS very crowded this year for favorite film. Are they going to celebrate Turner? Or Hawking? Or Turing? Where are they going to put their nationalistic pride? I really don’t know.
In America’s corner we have Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma, Louis Zamperini in Unbroken and Chris Kyle in American Sniper. These are two opposing heroes all getting ready to enter Oscars 2014.
But we don’t yet know how these later films are going to play. All we have right now are the four, with the fifth possibly being Timothy Spall.
On the fringe are Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, Chadwick Boseman who really made a significant impression playing James Brown. Jake Gyllenhaal currently freaking people out in Nightcrawler. Tom Hardy in Locke, championed by Hollywood-Elsewhere’s Jeff Wells. Any of them could crash the party of what pundits think they know now.
Which actor do you think has the best shot to win?
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Wow, thanks Ryan for historical confirmation on actors winning the Oscar under 35, needless to say, it’s quite alarming and pitiful.
Well, maybe this year would change. I’ve also read comments on Nate R’s website from people saying that Eddie Redmayne ‘visibly reads under 30’. While I agree that he looks younger than his 32, soon to turn 33 just prior to the Oscars telecast, I still find it alarmingly discriminatory that a young actor’s birth date and youthful face is something that is weighed against him in winning the top honor.
How many actors under the age of 35 have won Oscars?”
Simone, You made me wonder, so I checked the facts. I could only find stats on the 10 youngest — and they range in age from 29-34 so I think this is close to all of them.
So the sloppy answer is: only about 10 actors under the age of 35 have ever won Best Actor.
29 – Adrian Brody, The Pianist
30 – Marlon Brando, On the Waterfront
30 – Richard Dreyfud, The Goodbye Girl
31 – Maximillian Schell, Judgement at Nuremberg
31 – Nicholas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
32 – James Stewart, The Philadephia Story
32 – Daniel Day -Lewis, My Left Foot
34 – Clark Gable, It Happened One Night
34 – Charles Laughton, Private Life of Henry VIII
34 – Robert Donat, Goodbye Mr Chips
No actor younger than 35 has won Best Actor in 12 years, and only four men younger than 35 have won Best Actor since 1977. Only 4 times in the past 37 years.
But… that does mean: it’s about time for another one.
David Oyelowo in Selma has one of the best chances of a nomination. He’s playing an American hero in a film by an interesting director that is sure to do well at the box office.
Oyelowo is a terrific actor, an award winning stage actor with years of experience. This performance will be arresting, eye-catching, special.
“I think Redmayne is too young by Academy standards to win Best Actor. How many actors under the age of 35 have won Oscars?”
@Alfredo, I understand your inquiry, but in my opinion, the academy needs to stop with the damn age discrimination when it comes to ‘under 35’ actors. It’s such hypocritical bullshit! I’m in no way a Redmayne hard core fan, but I was really and truly moved by his performance and if nominated and if he has a chance to win, it should be based on the acting merits alone, as if he were a 55 years old man.
Is Redmayne really that good to be tough to beat or he’s just the best shot of the film for a nomination because it’s HIS film all along? Because most of the review I read are all praise for Redmayne and Jones but there’s not much in it.
Actors 35 and Younger Who Have Won Lead Actor Oscars:
1) Fredric March, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. (35)
2) Charles Laughton, The Private Life of Henry VIII (34)
3) Clark Gable, It Happened One Night (34)
4) Robert Donat, Goodbye Mr. Chips (34)
5) Jimmy Stewart, The Philadelphia Story (32)
6) William Holden, Stalag 17 (35)
7) Marlon Brando, On the Waterfront (30)
8) Maximilian Schell, Judgement at Nuremberg (31)
9) Richard Dreyfuss, The Goodbye Girl (30)
10) Daniel Day Lewis, My Left Foot (32)
11) Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas (32)
12) Adrien Brody, The Pianist (29)
True that more 35-and-under actors won in the older days than they do now. But a younger actor winning isn’t as unheard of as some people make it out to be. Interestingly, Redmayne’s performance in The Theory of Everything is often compared to Daniel Day Lewis’ performance in My Left Foot. DDL was 32 when he won. Redmayne is…32.
They also have the look and feel and vibe of the type of movies that AMPAS voters gravitate towards — amazing reviews or not. Having said that, Im not an AMPAS member and I cant wait to see both movies.
I think both TIM and TToE reviews will improve once more Metacritic reviews trickle in, especially on rottentomatoes. And many films have made it in to BP line-ups with only good-ish Metacritic scores (or less).
“Am I alone in thinking that Cumberbatch’s Oscar chances are hurt by the fact that he has played a very similar — supremely intelligent, arrogant, socially inept and ambiguously or secretly homosexual — character for three BBC seasons on Sherlock?”
I actually think this is a plus for Cumberbatch. He is so astonishingly good in “Sherlock” that this would add to the sentiment that he deserves to be rewarded. The first time I saw Cumberbatch in “Sherlock,” I thought to myself–wow, this guy is on an entirely other level, and will be one of our great actors.
Also, even though I’m usually lukewarm about Wes Anderson, I’ll say, I’d love it if Ralph Fiennes was a serious contender. I absolutely love that performance. It is also, to my mind, the best character Wes Anderson has created.
I’ll keep singing the praises and lighting a candle of hope for Ralph Fiennes to make it in. Thakfullly I see in the comments that I am not entirely alone in this.
(And I would rank his chances equal to Affleck and Gyllenhaal and Spall and higher than Hardy and Boseman, which is not a value judgment on their performances but a reflection of how I see the season shaping out.)
Hobjam, I hope my perspective changes once I see the films. I consider myself a “smart and opinionated general public viewer with a critical eye who happens to love awards season” so I’m part of the crowd that I expect to be underwhelmed by TToE and TIG. But, again, I hope that perspective changes once I see.
Benutty, I agree…it does seem very odd to me that almost all the Oscar ‘experts’ are predicting both Theory of Everything and Imitation Game to make the Best Pic lineup, when they are both below 70 on Metacritic. However, they hold scores of 90 and 91 on the BFCA website so perhaps this is why? After all the BFCA has been much more consistent measure of Oscar potential…
Am I alone in thinking that Cumberbatch’s Oscar chances are hurt by the fact that he has played a very similar — supremely intelligent, arrogant, socially inept and ambiguously or secretly homosexual — character for three BBC seasons on Sherlock? Viewing the Imitation Game, I couldn’t help but think that this wasn’t much of a stretch for him (save for the emotionally wrought final scene). Michael Keaton’s performance in Birdman felt much more original and daring to me.
BENUTTY, you are being nutty for having Redmayne and Cumberbatch so low. They are both absolute locks. Having seen The Imitation Game, Cumberbatch’s performance is nuances, layered, and seemless. Gorgeously understated. The kind of role the Academy goes gaga for, in the kind of movie the Academy goes gaga for. You’ll see. Redmayne is in a role getting ABSOLUTE RAVES. He is humbly, charming and can work the campaigning trail remarkably well. His performance is a layered, undeniable physical transformation that brought the man he was playing to tears.
Sorry about it.
I know he’s not even in the conversation for Best Actor, and I hate to sound like a broken record, but Colin Firth gave the performance of his life in “The Railway Man” earlier in the year. It’s one of my favorite movies of the year and has all the ingredients of a “Best Actor” performance (disabled man pitted against personal demons who must face his fears and overcome them . . . and receives ultimate redemption and forgiveness). I LOVE this performance by Firth.
It happens whenever there is a majority of foreign (or, more to the point, British) actors nominated in a category, AMPAS usually opts for the lone American actor to win. I can cite two cases:
1983
Robert Duval – WON BEST ACTOR
Albert Finney, Tom Courtney, Michael Caine, and Tom Conti (all British actors lost)
1991
Marisa Tomei – WON BEST ACTRESS
Vanessa Redgrave, Joan Plowright, Miranda Richardson (all British actors lost), Judy Davis (Australian)
(Incidentally, my own favorites for the above awards were Albert Finney for “The Dresser” and Judy Davis for “Husbands and Wives”. I still think each got robbed of an Oscar.)
So, if Spall, Cumberbatch, Redmayne, and another British actor gets nominated (or Steve Carrell – who may get the nomination but not the win), my prediction will be Michael Keaton to win Best Actor (AMPAS loves a comeback story, and he’s generally well liked well by the actors branch).
Julian, what then is leading any pundit to believe they’re going to do well? Sasha argues time and time again that CRITICS are a decisive factor in the race so how then do we reconcile that critics DON’T rate these films very well, but pundits DO think they have a chance? It all feels FORCED.
Honestly, the TToE Oscar narrative is mind-boggling to me. At least TIG has weight behind it and some masters working in its below-the-lines.
“(…)pundits can try as hard as they can to knock Interstellar down and talk about films like TIG and TToE that have STILL only screened to critics and festival audiences and are films that are targeted TO critics and festival audiences having big chances with the Academy (…)”
But, Benutty, you are clearly missing the point here: TIG and TToE are obviously NOT movies aimed at the critics, far from it. They are middlebrow, Oscar-baity prestige pics. Both of them have low scores at metacritic, btw, which proves you wrong. The critics are going to HURT these two film by avoiding them when it comes to the major critics’ prizes in December (where they will go for the REAL critics’ movies instead: Foxcatcher, Birdman and Boyhood)
The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne are all getting nominated. The films are middlebrow crowdpleaser consensus picks. The actors are playing emotional heroes with disabilities and are brilliant doing it.
I agree with SallyinChicago in that: most of the BP contenders are not goingto be making a ton of $$. THAT, to me, is one of the more interesting aspects of the race, for me.
Also, I think the actor race for noms will come down to PASSION.
Keaton, BP contender and passion.
Cumberbatch, BP contender and passion.
Redmayne, BP contender and passion.
That leaves 2 spots …
Carrell, I see SOME passion, but he could miss with a cold movie.
Spall, I see passion from British voters in the Academy.
Cooper, I dont see passion, I see late-breaking movie.
Isaac, I dont see passion, I see late-breaking movie.
OConnell, if the movie is big and he is great, watch out.
Thats how I see it now. And by the way, I thought Redmayne was wonderful in Les Miserables and so a nom this year with another acclaimed performance would be so warranted.
About Wes Anderson, this is true, Benutty. But it’s an Oscar Crime.
Let me know when people start dressing as Morten Tyldum characters for Halloween. 🙂
Josh, Wes Anderson films have NEVER been a factor at the Oscars. Like, never. There is nothing to suggest that Fiennes or the film have a shot. We go through this every time he has a film out: adored adored adored and then ignored ignored ignored.
OT: what do we think of a February 2016 release date for Coens’ Hail Caesar? Are they completely uninterested in contending with it or is that probably going to become a December 2015 limited release?
No one else has a chance? I would think Fiennes is still in there more than you think.
OT: Isaac fans, EX MACHINA looks like another winner from Alex Garland, writer of 28 DAYS LATER, SUNSHINE, NEVER LET ME GO. Even if you can already glimpse at some of his monster excesses, literally…monsters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMUHXgw_fpI
2015 is looking exceptionally strong for sci-fi with this, The Wachowski’s JUPITER ASCENDING, Jeff Nichol’s MIDNIGHT SPECIAL, Dake Doremus’ EQUALS, Brad Bird’s TOMORROWLAND, Tarsem Singh’s SELFLESS, and Ridley Scott’s THE MARTIAN. Who knows, even Neill Blomkamp’s CHAPPIE might turn out passable.
And Drood, let’s remind people that Tom Hanks and Robert Redford are names that register much more noticeably than either Eddie Redmayne or Benedict Cumberbatch on the AMPAS richter scale.
K. Bowen: 100% the conversations around Interstellar not having chances at BP or other big noms is dialogue happening among a select few pundits who had already showed their hands in favor of other films and (THIS IS MY OPINION) it would seem they’re dogging Interstellar’s chances because they’re scared of its potential to spoil the entire race for their favorite films of the year. On Metacritic the 2 mid-range and 1 low-range scores came out as soon as embargo was lifted. 6 top-range scores came out at the same time. And since then the only 4 additions have all been top-range, one of which was another score of 100. User reviews will skew even more in favor of the film–that’s a certainty.
Look, pundits can try as hard as they can to knock Interstellar down and talk about films like TIG and TToE that have STILL only screened to critics and festival audiences and are films that are targeted TO critics and festival audiences having big chances with the Academy, but the truth of the matter is that Interstellar ISN’T a film targeting critics or festival audiences! The general public is going to respond overwhelmingly in support of it because they aren’t going to get hung up on things like Nolan’s filmography and which other film is better or is it too cheesy or is the script bad or is the science too hard to understand or should it have ended more abstractly…………….. and the fact is the Academy LOVES FILMS THAT GENERAL AUDIENCES LIKE. General audiences will SINK The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything.
Glad to see someone is paying attention to “Mr. Turner.” I’ll wager that it dominates BAFTA (with Spall winning) and receives more AMPAS nominations than either TIG or TToE. Redmayne may not even be nominated at the end of the day (and for those who would dismiss this observation, let me remind you of what was being said of both Robert Redford and Tom Hanks at this time last year)…
Given this headline I really didn’t think it’d be another post about BPs written by women starring women.
On the Redmayne topic, can we discuss how he was passed over two years ago for Les Mis, after receiving a LOT of buzz for his performance in a much less crowded Supporting race? Given the mild reviews for the film as a whole, I really don’t see him breaking into this race at all. We all KNOW that “a really great performance” is like 5th on the totem of ways an actor gets his/her name on the ballot. I feel the same way about Cumberbatch’s odds, though he has the might of TWC on his side and a much more established personal brand. But the question really is still: can either of them get the respect and British vote that Mr. Turner and Timothy Spall and Mike Leigh have at their fingertips?
For me, the only Lead Actor nomination lock is Michael Keaton. In order of likelihood the other four nominees will be:
2. Steve Carell (a narrative that began last year and hasn’t let up since, that’s impressive)
3. Timothy Spall (he’ll win the BAFTA, he’ll get the British vote over ER and BC, and Mr. Turner is going to score big noms while the ER and BC films won’t)
4. Matthew McConaughey (lead in a heavyweight film, solid reviews, reigning champ, beloved actor, respected, lots of promo, etc.)
5. Bradley Cooper (indisputably an Academy darling now, depends on the film succeeding)
then:
6. Benedict Cumberbatch
7. Eddie Redmayne
8. Joaquin Phoenix (they nominate him even when he fights the system!)
and:
literally no one else has a chance
He should choose more wisely what filmmakers he works with after his first Academy Award nomination materializes. Really excited about his turn in JUPITER ASCENDING. My favorite performances of his happened early on in the engrossing high trash SAVAGE GRACE, holding his own against an overwhelming Julianne Moore, and in the underseen little gem that is LIKE MINDS. Needless to say that I think he’s immensely talented, but hasn’t been in anything remotely memorable since that one-two punch. Check those out if you haven’t.
Sally may well have a point.
Don’t look now … Interstellar may be rallying.
74 RT
78 MC
9.6 IMDB
Prediction: This will be the lowest rated Academy Awards show in a long time. Prediction: None of these movies will move the movie audience to go see them and make boxo impact.
Sorry to be a downer, but all the movies listed, their subjects and subject matter are just boringgggg.
What Bob Burns said… I find Redmayne magnetic, always able to stand out above his costars, always better than the films in which he appears. That he has this peach of a lead role makes him the one to beat at the moment.
Also glad to see somebody (J Wells) finally bring poor Tom Hardy back into the conversation and, as Julian said, we haven’t seen Isaac, O’Connell or Cooper yet. They will have an advantage of being fresh and front-of-mind.
With this many contenders for 5 spots, the volley of critics awards that starts in about a month could play a key role in swaying voters’ minds.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Manuel could be right with his theory about Carell as the new Carrey of the Oscars. Maybe the majority of the academy members will see his performance as a gimmick rather than a lived-in character portrayal? I think he is extremely vulnerable at the moment, especially if some of the unseen performances really take off (O’Connell, Cooper, Isaac) and maybe there’s even the possibility of a comeback for one of the springtime contenders, Fiennes (if he scoops up some of the critics’ prizes in December)?
I would list the contenders like this as of now:
Redmayne
Keaton
Cumberbatch
Spall
Carell
But I think, ultimately, Carell will be upended by either Isaac, Cooper (or, crossed fingers, Fiennes)
Having viewed Foxcatcher tonight, I have to say I feel like Carell in Lead is category fraud. Tatum is the lead, really. Carell should go supporting (and could win in that category).
Fingers cross for Ralph Fiennes phenomenal turn in The Grand Budapest Hotel. They need a true comedic turn in all that drama lineup
Eddie Redmayne
Michael Keaton
Benedict Cumberbatch
Ralph Fiennes
Miles Teller
I think Steve Carrell will be the new Jim Carrey. Great review never nominated for his dramatic work
“Nominees will be
Keaton / Redmayne / Cumberbatch / Carell / “Ellar Coltrane””
Boyhood is my favorite movie of the year. Ellar is not getting a nomination.
“The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Mr. Turner
Interstellar
Are all films by British directors – three of which are about famous British people!”
Not true – Morten Tyldum is Norwegian :-)… (And Marsh though being British lives in Denmark).
I would whole-heartedly nominate Boseman if I had a vote, he was incredibly in a near-impossible task of matching James Brown’s charisma without making it a caricature. While I haven’t seen a lot of the other contenders (Cumberbatch, O’Connell, Spall, Redmayne, Carell, Gyllenhaal, Cooper), I’d vote Boseman for the win at this point, and I’d have a hard time believing that FIVE of those performances are somehow better.
Nominees will be
Keaton / Redmayne / Cumberbatch / Carell / “Ellar Coltrane”
I can’t wait to see Redmayne’s performance.
One comment on this statement: “…with only David Fincher and Bennett Miller holding down the American front right now…”
What about Linklater? I still think he’s a VERY serious contender.
Personally, I doubt that both The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything will get nominated in the Best Picture and Best Actor categories. I think the British biopic faction will hustle around one or the other. I don’t see there being enough voters in that voting bloc to list each of them as their No. 1 pick a sufficient number of times for both of them to make it.
I still think Fiennes is a player for Best Actor. Maybe it’s just hope.
My Left Lobe.
“Forgive the indiscretion, but I feel compelled put this debate to rest once and for all. I have it on good authority that all four winners of the acting categories have been effectively locked for a couple of weeks now.
Best Actor – Michael Keaton
Best Actress – Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor – J.K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress – Patricia Arquette”
Bryce, I like how you said that even though your avatar picture is Jack O’Connell in the yet-to-be-seen Unbroken. 🙂
“Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, Chadwick Boseman who really made a significant impression playing James Brown. Jake Gyllenhaal currently freaking people out in Nightcrawler. Tom Hardy in Locke…”
No no no. If not Timothy Spall, I think much more likely we’ll see frighteningly good performances in some movies that haven’t been seen yet: notably, Bradley Cooper in American Sniper and Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year.
Redmayne’s Marius was transformational for Les Miserables. I have seen several productions and the character was always weak. I thought it was the writing, but no. It was/is the acting.
Having a strong actor in the role shifts the story to a place that Hugo would have loved, IMO. Marius is said to be another version of Hugo himself, (Marius, the character is a near contemporary of Hugo) one who fought for the Republic as a young man in 1832. Hugo did not take a stand for the Republic until the 1840’s. Redmayne’s portrayal is of a young man who was willing to fight and die for the distinction of being a citizen rather than a subject.
I agree that Spall is the one who could get left off. I’ve also read a few things about Spall’s accent in the movie, but don’t know how accurate that is. Wasn’t that something Jeffrey Wells said? Might have to take it with a grain of salt.
I don’t think three Brits getting into Best Actor is a particularly big deal, especially if the viable American offerings in the field are somewhat weak. It might just be that kind of year.
True, if Cooper’s performance fails to live up to expectation then Spall could take the fifth spot. But from some of the things I’ve heard about Mr. Turner is that it’s apparently hard to understand. The British accents are so thick and Spall spends most of the film grunting. So yeah, I’m not entirely sold. Also let’s not forget about Oscar Isaac! I’d add him to the list along with Cooper, Spall, and O’Connell of actors vying for the fifth slot.
I would love to see Keaton winning, but my biggest fear is that Carell is left out of the race. That performance in Foxcatcher is a career’s best and it would be a shame if he doesn’t get a well deserved recognition. In a year without Keaton, I would be rooting to hell and back for Carell. He’s an extreeeemely close second in my heart tho.
You know whose films are centered on women and I don’t see you talk about? Dardenne’s and Olivier Assayas. Unless, of course, is about Kirsten Stewart.
“Do you really think the academy is going to nominate 3 british actors for 3 britsh biopics?”
It could happen, but between those three, I think Spall may be left off to make room for an American.
I don’t think three Brits getting into Best Actor is a particularly big deal, especially if the viable American offerings in the field are somewhat weak. It might just be that kind of year.
So many British actors! I still dont think Cumberbatch, Redmayne and Spall are all getting in. Do you really think the academy is going to nominate 3 british actors for 3 britsh biopics? This isnt the Baftas people! My picks for best actor ranked in order of likliehood are:
1. Keaton
2. Cumberbatch
3. Redmayne
4. Carell
5. Cooper
If 3 or 4 brits DO happen to get nominated then Keaton is almost certainly winning.
Well, people considered Tom Hanks and Robert Redford pretty much locked in Best Actor last year at this time, and we saw how that turned out.
With that said, though, it is hard for me to see Keaton/Cumbie/Redmayne/Carell not all making it in. I had some concerns about Carell at one point, actually, but a few of the actors I thought my challenge him for a slot have kind of faded or not really panned out, so…
I agree with Jeff. #5 is probably between Cooper or Spall. American Sniper is such a wild card.
Bryce’s likely winners in the acting categories are also my projections at the moment. Actor is the toughest call for me.
I haven’t seen The Theory of Everything and so have no stake in the matter, but since it looks like it will get nominations in Actor, Actress, and adapted screenplay, at the very least, I could see it getting a BP nomination in an expanded field.