The State of the Race: The “Oscar Movie”

“As long as she thinks of a man, nobody objects to a woman thinking.”
― Virginia Woolf, Orlando

The tweets are coming in fast and furiously from the New York Film Festival. Word is out that Birdman, which skyrocketed to high praise out of Venice, reaffirmed that praise in Telluride days later and now, has taken New York by storm, closing the New York Film Festival, which my all accounts is going down this year as the one of the finest in its history. But it occurred to me while I was reading the tweets of people talking about a movie that will be opening later this month: who are we talking to? The answer is: to each other.

That’s the Oscar race in 2014. People who get to see and write about movies talking to each other. This has already been pointed out by the great Mark Harris, a voice not heard often enough.

The Oscar race, as such, isn’t really a race to one final finish line — it’s a roiling parade of opinions, a political election full of lobbyists, advocates, critics and bloggers. It starts with Telluride and it ends at the Dolby in Hollywood. The names shift in minor ways but we’re all still talking about the best, which usually boils down to a very small pile, maybe two or three titles in all.

There have always been two approaches to writing about the Oscars. The first, to predict and the second, to advocate. For me, there are two ways that I advocate for the Oscars. The first, to bring attention to great films, great performances, great writing — be they completely out of left field (In the Loop) or right in plain sight, but just ignored (Middle of Nowhere). Since I get paid for writing about the Oscars through studio advertising it’s important for me to be honest about my advocacy. It’s important to stay true to what I genuinely believe, otherwise one is too easily bought off either through friendships or access or money.

Predictions are different from advocacy. They are the stone cold reality of what “they” will ultimately do. Sometimes the two different approaches get muddled. Sometimes we predict what we WANT to happen versus what we know will happen.

As we barrel towards November we have the two camps furiously competing to win by year’s end. The advocates who shout loudly (I am one of those) and the calm objective Oscar predictors. The funny thing is, they are as influential as the loud mouths, only A) they would never admit it, and B) no one else would ever admit it either. Before they pick the winners they pick the nominees, and that is where the power of suggestion is at its height.

The internet changed everything — and only some things for the better. We’re long past the exodus of most ticket-buying adults retreating to their mancaves, or wolves dens to watch their giant flat screen TVs. This was once an alarming discovery, now it is normal. We are past the rise of the international one-size-fits-all plug-and-play blockbuster – where once it was an alarming discovery, now it, too, is normal. We’re long since past the independents leveling the playing field with major studio films and we’re past the preference for American-born film directors leading the Best Picture race.

In many ways the Oscars remain frozen in time, a relic of a bygone era. As we head towards a moment in history where a woman might become President of the United States, the Oscar race -= including all of the critics and industry awards leading up to it — continues to honor films that are almost exclusively about men.

Though women have been counted as the majority of ticket-buyers at movie theaters (for their kids, for their dates, for themselves), though women continue to drive the marketplace in book publishing, television ratings, and political elections, the one place they are mostly shut out of is the Oscar race.

The reason for this? The five nominee slots for Best Picture designated by the Academy.
We’re misled slightly by the notion that there can be a maximum of 9. Indeed, the “new” experiment was all for there to be more or fewer contenders depending on how many movies there were. For two years, in 2009 and 2010, they asked Oscar voters to choose ten. But the voters could not handle that big of a commitment — so they went back to five.

Since then, where there was supposed to be a variety of films represented in a given year — five to nine nominees, there has been consistently nine, which is about the limit under the complicated math rules. Nine for four straight years now. Perhaps it’s time for the Academy to admit that this experiment still favors ten nominees and to perhaps shift their ballots to ten, and not five.

With “5 to 9” but more like always “9” you see Oscar voters doing what they do with only five. Picking films that they most identify with as their favorites. Those movies are mostly “Oscar movies.” Sure, every so often you get something totally original like Gravity or Life of Pi pushing through, but for the most part their tastes are uniform:

—Taking place in the past

—Uplifting message

—male protagonist overcoming disability and doing something good for the world

When the Oscar race had five nominees for Best Picture (from about 1945 to 2009) there was the “Oscar movie.” The Oscar movie used to include women in its stories, like Mrs. Miniver and All About Eve. The Oscar movie today does not.

When voters had ten slots for Best Picture miraculous things began to happen. Animated movies were nominated for Best Picture. Genre movies like District 9 got in. And best of all, movies by women, about women got in. The ten nominees still fell under the preferential balloting as the system now also does. But we had variety. We had diversity. They, the voters, had the freedom to pick their five “Oscar movies” and still have room for the remainders, the movies they knew could benefit from being awarded but would never make their top five.

When the voters complained that ten were too many they went back to voters only being required to name five choices — 2011, 2012, 2013. And once that happened? No animated films for Best Picture, hardly any starring women, hardly any about women. It is just more of their worst instincts disguised to look like they’re awarding more films every year.

The great thing about some of the films this year is that they have not ignored women completely. There are great supporting female characters in the top films, like Boyhood, The Imitation Game and Birdman. Not all of them are there as boner fodder either. Patricia Arquette in Boyhood, Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game and Emma Stone’s character are among of the best female characters of the year.

But so far, the most of the stories about women are being shot down this year, just as they were last year. The first to go and the first to be ridiculed, almost every year, with the notable exception of Gravity. Gravity got in so that meant no other films featuring women had to. Saving Mr. Banks and August: Osage County were written off as “bad.” This year, you can set your watch by it. Mark my words, by the end of this year, all of the films about women, where women are the main characters, will be selected out of the Oscar race.

To understand why this is not just a possibility but a reality, take a look at Scott Feinberg’s projected forecast for Best Picture in his last column. Here are his ten films he thinks are the frontrunners right now:


Frontrunners

Interstellar (Paramount)

Boyhood (IFC Films)

The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.)

Unbroken (Universal)

Into the Woods (Disney)

Birdman (Fox Searchlight)

The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)

American Sniper (Warner Bros.)

Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)

Citizenfour (RADiUS-TWC, Participant Media, HBO)

He’s betting on Into the Woods getting in. American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, Boyhood, Interstellar, and Birdman will all come into the race with very strong supporting female characters. Some of them coming to close to actually mattering in the big picture, specifically Patricia Arquette, whose presence is so strong in Boyhood the film could have been called Motherhood (try getting any fanboy/critic/blogger cred with THAT title).

Heading over to Kris Tapley’s top ten, he has:

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Into the Woods”
“Mr. Turner”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Unbroken”

The only films that they are both betting that star women is the sight unseen Into the Woods.

It is a sad lament that when all is said and done the unfortunate truth emerges: the stories that matter, the stories that get attention, the stories that achieve critical acclaim by the large consensus voters are only about men. A film like Whiplash could have starred all women and been every bit as good. It could have starred one woman somewhere doing something other than representing that which needs to be fucked. Whiplash is a great movie. You can feel the excitement by people, men and women, thrilled and enthralled by it. It will easily make voters’ top five of the year. As great as it is, walking away from it, I thought, this is really what the majority of bloggers, critics and industry voters think about women. That they are only worthy as love interests and that it’s best if they’re not around at all so that men can get down to serious matters. Compare this paltry collection to what we see on TV.

But it’s tough to even touch the subject anymore. There is so much resentment out there, annoyance at people like me who bitch about the state of things. I feel it everywhere — here on my own site, in comment sections, on Twitter — the continual eye-rolling and embittered interactions that all say the same thing: shut the fuck up already.

In fact, bring up two words on Twitter “Bechdel” and “test” and watch the defensiveness flap around you like seagulls caught in a tunnel. The Bechdel test has already become “controversial” because film fans are irritated that anyone would complain about the movies they love or about their tastes. They don’t see themselves as sexist or racist — they are even united culturally and ethnically over their irritation against uppity women (except for the small group of them that believe in women’s equality). But the proof is in the pudding. The proof is in what people choose and what they reject. This video makes the Bechdel test pretty clear. I’m posting it, even though it’s old, both for solidarity re: hashtag Gamergate but also because it’s so fun to watch critics and bloggers caterwaul at the mere thought of such things:

This year, were a video to be made so far of the films in the race many would pass with flying colors:

Frontrunners:
Boyhood
The Imitation Game (I think?)
Birdman
Gone Girl
Mr. Turner

Dark horses:
Wild
The Homesman
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
The Clouds of Sils Maria
Still Alice

The rest of them, we’ll just have to find out and see. And no, caterwaulers, I don’t think the Bechdel test makes a movie better or not. And no, don’t worry, I’m not going to enforce the Bechdel test on art in the least bit. It is a mirror, that’s all, a mirror that reveals how we are now. A mirror that serves as a reminder that the Oscars, and film overall, used to value women much more than they do now. Think about it.

I remain excited at the possibilities of the female directors crowding into the race this year — Angelina Jolie, Ava DuVernay, and Laura Poitras. And then there’s Rose McGowan who not only has directed a short film called Dawn but started her own film festival back in September. Said McGowan, “I’m curating a festival of directors that have given their lead women a strong voice. These stories could have been told with men in the title characters, but these directors showed us what happens when you break stereotypes. They have inspired me as a woman, as a director and as a person.”

The films she chose? “Thelma & Louise,” “Sixteen Candles,” “Rosemary’s Baby,” “The Silence of the Lambs,” “Harold and Maude,” “Carrie” and “The Parent Trap.”

Fuck yeah, Rose McGowan. Note how one of these was The Silence of the Lambs, a Best Picture winner from a bygone era.

As an Oscar predictor, with a smidge of wishful thinking thrown in, I give you my current predictions:

Best Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Birdman
Gone Girl
Whiplash
Sight Unseen: Unbroken, American Sniper, Interstellar

Fingers crossed: Selma

Wishful thinking: The Homesman

But watch out for: A Most Violent Year, The Gambler

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Sight unseen: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
But watch out for: David Oyelowo, Selma, Mark Wahlberg, The Gambler

Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
But watch out for: Jessica Chastain, Eleanor Rigby/A Most Violent year

Supporting Actor
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Tyler Perry, Gone Girl

Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Laura Dern Wild
Carrie Coon, Gone Girl
But watch out for: Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Ava DuVernay, Selma OR Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Sight unseen: Christopher Nolan, Interstellar
But watch out for: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper, Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game,

Original Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro Inarritu et al, Birdman
E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Sight unseen: Christopher and Jonathan Nolan, Interstellar
Watch out for: Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel, JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year

Adapted Screenplay
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Nick Hornby, Wild
Anthony McCarten, The Thoery of Everything
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Sight unseen: Coens et al., Unbroken

Editing
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Boyhood
Sight unseen: Interstellar

Cinematography
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Sight unseen: Interstellar, Unbroken

Production Design
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Sight unseen: Interstellar, Into the Woods, Unbroken

Sound Mixing
Whiplash
Get on Up
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Sight unseen: Interstellar, American Sniper, Unbroken

Sound Editing
Whiplash
Birdman
Big Hero Six
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Sight unseen: Interstellar

Costume Design
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Get on Up
Sight unseen: Selma, Unbroken, Into the Woods

Original Score
Gone Girl
Birdman
Noah
The Imitation Game
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Sight unseen: Interstellar

Foreign Language Feature
Mommy (Canada)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Documentary Feature
CitizenFour
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Look of Silence
Seymour

Animated Feature
Princess Kaguya
he Lego Movie
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Book of Life

Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Godzilla
Sight unseen and the winner: Interstellar

Makeup
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Song
Mercy is (Patti Smith, Noah)

Live Action Short
Dawn, Rose Mcgowan

Animated Short
Feast, Disney

Documentary Short