10. Birdman
9. Wild Tales
8. Citizenfour
7. Nightcrawler
6. Jodorowsky’s Dune
5. Goodbye to Language
4. Lucy
3. The LEGO Movie
2. Boyhood
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
10. Birdman
9. Wild Tales
8. Citizenfour
7. Nightcrawler
6. Jodorowsky’s Dune
5. Goodbye to Language
4. Lucy
3. The LEGO Movie
2. Boyhood
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Sorry, friend. Birdman looks to be in deep with the Oscars and will probably pull off a TWBB at the very least, Oscars for Keaton and Lubezski.
Nah, I think there are too many better candidates for missing out than Birdman for that to happen. In a more competitive year, with more movies with real shots at BP noms, maybe, but not this year. Besides, I still think Birdman has a decent chance of actually winning the big prize – although Boyhood (in contrast to its tone) looks like a juggernaut in the race at this point, for sure.
Nymphomaniac is the kind of film that is predestined to turn up on both best of- and worst of-lists. Personally? I would rank it (the directors’ cut version) between number 10-15 on my best of 2014 list. It’s an immersive experience (with great cameos from Thurman and Jamie Bell), and actually very funny!
LC, I think Children of Men would’ve made it in for best picture. Zodiac…tough to say because it received no other nominations and because it wasn’t marketed correctly, or as well as it could’ve been. BUT if that year would’ve allowed for 10 best picture nominees I think the marketing would’ve been heavier. Voters would consider Zodiac more leading to a possible best picture nomination and the 2 it should’ve received at the very least…adapted screenplay and editing.
Chris, I haven’t seen Nymphomaniac so I can’t say if it’s truly bad or very good. But I did see Transformers and Transcendence. Transformers was complete shit. Not even the visuals and the sound elevated the movie. It was Michael Bay jacking off for 3 hours and the movie was an obvious cash-grab. He knows it too and I’m glad nobody is making it out to be “a misfire in art.” Transcendence was shit as well. Depp might as well have been asleep for most of the movie and there were too many characters that amounted to zilch. I wouldn’t say these are probably the worst of the year but the biggest misfires of the year when they could’ve been either very good or entertaining.
Someone posted Entertainment Weekly’s top 10 of the year, but Chris Nashawaty also included his worst 5 of 2014 as well. It’s hard to argue with any of his choices.
5. The Monuments Men
“George Clooney has directed a couple of great films. This airless WWII caper isn’t one of them. It’s the movie equivalent of listening to seven guys hum the national anthem for two hours.”
4. Transcendence
“We haven’t given up on you, Johnny Depp. But you can do a lot better than this preposterous techno-thriller that felt more like Max Headroom than The Matrix. Owning your own private island in the Caribbean is God’s way of telling you that you can occasionally say no.”
3. Let’s Be Cops
“Let’s not.”
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
“Hands down, the most idiotic blockbuster of the year. Michael Bay’s rock-’em-sock-’em sequel raked in more than $1 billion worldwide despite being a shamelessly cynical orgy of Fortune 500 product placement and about as narratively coherent as your average funny-pages word jumble. With the fate of the world at stake, you should at least care who wins in the end. Me, I was just relieved the damn thing was over.”
1. Nymphomaniac: Volumes I & II
“I don’t know what’s more depressing: the tepidly transgressive, petulant-child posturing of enfant terrible Lars von Trier in his two-part slog, or the critics who bent themselves into knots looking for a non-existent feminist subtext in the Danish auteur’s art-house provocation. Then again, maybe it’s just Shia LaBeouf’s dodgy British accent. What I’m certain of is this: Nymphomaniac is, was, and shall always be pretentious hooey and hackwork.”
BTW, here’s the list of Best Pic winners I compiled a while ago
2000-#13. Gladiator (38 lists, 2 top spots)
2001-#18. A Beautiful Mind (45 lists, 3 top spots)
2002-#8 Chicago (100 lists, 16 top spots)
2003-#2. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (278 lists, 92 top spots)
2004-#6. Million Dollar Baby (205 lists; 33 top spots)
2005-#6. Crash (197 lists, 32 top spots)
2006- #1.The Departed (241 lists, 42 top spots)
2007- #1. No Country for Old Men (358 lists, 90 top spots)
2008- #3. Slumdog Millionaire (262 lists, 54 top spots)
2009- #1. The Hurt Locker (351 lists, 72 top spots)
2010- #7.The King’s Speech (182 lists; 17 top spots)
2011 – #3. The Artist (295 lists; 52 top spots)
2012- #4. Argo (305 lists; 44 top spots)
2013- #1.12 Years a Slave (464 lists; 117 top spots)
So four times in the 21st century (and all in the last decade) the Academy has sided with the critics top choice, only once have they gone with #2, a few times number 3, and a few times they’ve decided they wanted to go even more against the grain and shed light on lower ranked films that weren’t as much critical darlings. I wish the CriticsTop10 site went back further, but naturally there were far fewer critics as we go back in time…
These lists really shed light on the years where there was a disconnect being critics and Oscar voters; for instance in 2008 the Top 2 films, Wall-E and The Dark Knight, both missed…though of course it’s speculated in a field of 10 that both would have been included. It’s interesting to see other what might have beens in fields of 10, such as #3 Zodiac in 2007 and #8 Children of Men in 2006. Also would Linklater have made it in for 2004’s #5 Before Sunset with a field of 10? Maybe maybe not, seeing how the final film of the trilogy also ranked #5 and did not make it into an expanded field…
LC, I hate to say it but as much as I want Grand Budapest Hotel and Inherent Vice in the best picture lineup I’m sure they will be left out. I can see them making so many year end lists though. Foxcatcher is also on the fringe in my eyes. I think the movie that has little shot of being nominated but will show up on many lists is Nightcrawler.
Some interesting stats from past years…
2013- only 5 of the Top 10 made the BP lineup
2012- 7 out of 10
2011- 6 out of 10
2010- 9 out of 10 (the 10th was at #11, that year was so predictable lol)
2009- 9 out of 10 (The 10th, The Blind Side, is missed the list entirely)
It’s worth noting that in the last few years the really high ranking films that missed the cut…
2013- #3. Inside Llewlyn Davis
2012- #2. Moonrise Kingdom, #3. The Master
2011- #2. Drive
What might we expect is the #2 or #3 critic’s darling that misses out this year?
Why yes it is RUFUS and sweet I didn’t realize they’d already started with 2014 results, but last I looked was a few days ago. Mighty curious where Nolan’s Interstellar will fall. His past results…
3. Memento (126 lists, 20 top spots)
35. Insomnia (26 lists)
13. Batman Begins (104 lists, 6 top spots)
40. The Prestige (28 lists, 2 top spots)
2. The Dark Knight (287 lists, 77 top spots)
2. Inception (273 lists; 55 top spots)
14. The Dark Knight Rises (147 lists; 11 top spots)
http://criticstop10.com
This is a great place to browse and get movie recommendations that you might have missed. It’s also a surprisingly good indicator of what might win as well as long you know how to use it.
Further to my comment above, I think it’s interesting that The Grand Budapest Hotel factors into Gurus rankings at #10, but when you add more expert lists to the mix, it falls to (by my formula) 14th. I’m even more surprised that Mr. Turner continues to hover to low on any/every list. I hope this changes once people see it.
Having not seen most of the supposed Oscar fare, just watching the race so far, I think that only Boyhood and Birdman can be considered so-called locks for a Best Picture nomination. Only two movies. In the first week of December no less. Everything else seems iffy at this point. So when nominations for other films like Unbroken, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game don’t come, I really don’t want to hear the word “snub”. Because it’s starting to sound like those movies were just bad guesses. Don’t get me wrong. They can still get nominated, flying in on fumes. But they’ve been on shaky ground since they’ve been seen. And they were in the conversation because they looked like the right sort of thing. But in reality it seems a lot of people judged these books by their covers and got it wrong.
I hope people in position to nominate, this year, will draw from what they’ve actually seen and enjoyed or thought was worthy because I can’t remember an Oscar season where the pundits were backtracking on the chosen films the way they seem to be. As film fans we have a year’s worth of films to choose from when we choose our ‘best of’ lists. Not just Oscar season. I hope the awarding bodies will remember that they can do the same.
Yep yep yep, looks like the critics are keeping The LEGO Movie and The Grand Budapest Hotel alive and well in the race, at least for the time being. Foreseeing some Golden Globe nominations for both films at this rate.
Philipp: To me, GBH is very profound, or whatever you choose to call it. At its core it’s about nostalgia, right? What’s more profound than that? And it’s about the urge to create a fantasy in order to get to terms with that nostalgia. There’s something both inherently tragic and beautiful about that.
I liked Grand Budapest Hotel, especially the colors. But I miss something in Andersons latest films. Royal Tennenbaums was quirky, too, but it was so much more. On the other hand: Not every movie has to be profound. Guess that speaks for GBH.
I saw that the Gurus posted another update to their lists on MCN, so I thought I’d take their lead and expand on their process to include more predictions from other sites. To their list I added the GoldDerby Experts (not included on Gurus) as well as Brad Brevet from Rope of Silicon, Peter Knegt from Indiewire, Clayton Davis from Awards Circuit, Pete Hammond from Deadline (list from his pre-Thanksgiving Gurus), and Kris Tapley from Hitfix. I also threw in mine because lol.
Using these 38 lists, I narrowed the selections down to 10 first by including the films that appear on the most lists. Here’s what I found:
Appear on all lists–
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Missing from 1 list–
Selma (minus Karger)
Unbroken (minus me)
Missing from 2 lists–
The Theory of Everything (minus Musto and me)
Missing from 7 lists–
Whiplash (minus Atchity, Geier, Khan, Pond, Riley, Wloszczyna and Karger)
Missing from 10 lists–
Gone Girl (minus Adams, Feinberg, Geier, Hogan, Khan, Riley, Davis, Hammond, Karger, Tapley)
Missing from 12 lists–
Foxcatcher (minus Feinberg, Musto, Polowy, Rosen, Sheehan, Simanton, Stone, Brevet, Davis, Rogers, Tapley and me)
Missing from 20 lists–
Interstellar (minus Adams, Cidoni, Douglas, Hogan, Riley, Simanton, Sperling, Stone, Travers, Wells, Knegt, Davis, Ellwood, Gray, Howell, Olsen, Poland, Rogers, Tapley and Whipp)
Using those 10 as our assumed BP nominees, I ranked them by evaluating their places on all of their lists (with a non-placement worth 11 points), with the following statistics:
1. Boyhood (68) – highest rank 1, lowest rank 6 (Tariq Khan, Fox News)
2. Birdman (129) – highest rank 1, lowest rank 9 (Scott Mantz, Access Hollywood)
3. The Imitation Game (140) – highest rank 1, lowest rank 10 (Thom Geier, Entertainment Weekly & Keith Simanton, IMDB)
4. Selma (154) – highest rank 1, lowest rank 10+ (Kevin Polowy, Yahoo!)
5. The Theory of Everything (205) – highest rank 2, lowest rank 10+ (Christophe Rosen, HuffPost)
6. Unbroken (214) – highest rank 1, lowest rank 10+ (Sasha Stone, Awards Daily & Gregory Ellwood, Criticwire)
7. Gone Girl (303) – highest rank 4, lowest rank 9+
8. Whiplash (316) – highest rank 2, lowest rank 10+
9. Foxcatcher (325) – highest rank 2, lowest rank 10+
10. Interstellar (374) – highest rank 5, lowest rank 10+
After that, the films appearing on lists are:
– Into the Woods (15), highest rank a 5
– A Most Violent Year (9), highest rank a 7
– American Sniper (8), highest rank a 6
– The Grand Budapest Hotel (7), highest rank a 7
– Wild (6), highest rank a 5
– Mr. Turner (5), highest rank a 9
– Inherent Vice (1), highest rank a 10
Takeaways:
– Everyone has the most confidence, by a large margin, in Boyhood being nominated
– Birdman, The Imitation Game and Selma are probably the next 3 most likely nominees
– The Theory of Everything and Unbroken, missing from few lists, seems likely, too, but with much less confidence than the others
– After that there is much less confidence in the 7-10 in anything else with none of them being ranked as 1 by anyone
Jesus, well put about Lego Movie.
Bryce, Lubezski need no introduction but Fisk had me at There Will Be Blood. He deserved the win for art direction that year as good as Dante Ferretti is. he’s one of the best in the business and is continuously overlooked by the academy. Between all his work with Malick and TWBB and The Master, the guy’s great with period detail.
I’m loving the Budapest love. Anymore like this and we might see it sneak into the best picture lineup. I’m convinced Unbroken will be left out, maybe Theory of Everything too.
The Grand Budapest Hotel getting some nice mentions here and there. People have not forgotten about it. This is only excellent news.
Oh, one more thing, on “The LEGO Movie”… anyone thinking is overrated hasn’t stopped for a second and actually analyzed and deconstruct the film and its themes. It’s worth a “Cahiers du Cinema” top 10, daring, ambitious and successful on all levels, as a piece of art, without ever giving up to be a fun, wild ride accessible and enjoyable for kids.
I’ve got Lucy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler and Boyhood in the waiting list, to be checked out in the next days… so far, my top 3 is 1. Stranger by the Lake, 2. Snowpiercer, 3. The LEGO Movie. Apart from those three, I’m unsure which ones of the films I’ve seen, could have a guaranteed spot on a top 10 when dust settles… so far, number 4, would be Captain America: The Winter Soldier… latest I’ve seen, is Kevin Smith’s “Tusk”, flawed but with HUGE balls.