Birdman Takes the Producers Guild in a Surprise

Well, it’s not really a surprise because we knew all along this awards season belonged to Boyman. But many of us thought it would be Boyhood’s to lose. The preferential ballot is tricky and unpredictable and has resulted in a horse-midstream-switch a few times since they changed up. This could mean Birdman is the new frontrunner to take the Oscar — and if Inarritu wins Best Director that will make the fifth straight year Best Director went to a foreign born director. We’re not doing a very good job fortifying our homegrown talent, industry, not at all.

Either way, lots of people love Birdman – it’s a movie you feel. Remember the old saying? Some movies you feel? Boyhood is more subtle, its message deeper and more profound. But Birdman grabs people in their vital organs – like their heart and their balls.

Tomorrow night is the SAG awards. Those votes have been cast. It’s a good possibility Birdman will win both. The DGA is still up in the air, with those ballots being cast later. The way buzz works is that people are driven by testosterone boosts standing next to a perceived winner. Thus, a winner keeps winning. How will the DGA go? DGA ballots aren’t even due until February 6th. That’s a lot of time for things to swing in a different direction or keep swinging in this direction.

What this PGA win does for Birdman is put it right up against Boyhood — I wish they could just give the prizes to Boyman and be done with it? Now voters know Birdman is a formidable contender and now they will start to ruminate on which film – Birdman or Boyhood – deserves to win the whole thing.

I have never thought film awards should be driven by emotion. In all of the years I’ve worked the Oscar beat I know that emotion is a passing fancy. It comes, it swells, it climaxes, it fades away. Emotional winners aren’t good winners for the long haul. They just aren’t. They seem like moments captured in time of who people were back then. What I know about Boyhood is that it’s extraordinary. Films like that don’t come around very often.

What I know about film awards? People don’t really care about extraordinary. They vote with their hearts. Birdman is a worthy winner, but no more worthy than The Imitation Game. Boyhood tops them both.