The SAG awards are also happening this Sunday. With Jennifer Aniston out of the Oscar race and Marion Cotillard in, that makes predicting Best Actress kind of tough, although it’s mostly still Julianne Moore’s to lose. The SAG will be the big test. I had a feeling Aniston might take that prize, which would have boosted her chances at an Oscar – one speech was all she needed to push it over the top. I don’t think that awards make much of a difference to a lot of people. I’ve come around to Jim Rocchi’s view of them, which is, why do we care about what this group of people thinks is best? It is really an absurd way of finding best – anonymous voting, cronyism, consensus. But every so often something or someone comes along where awards seem important as a way of validation. That Jennifer Aniston went for it this year was criticized, I thought, unfairly. Roles like Aniston’s aren’t being offered to women anymore in mainstream Hollywood. They have to seek them out. If they win awards for them that helps changes things for all older actresses. But alas.
Either way, Julianne Moore is overdue – and deserving. It’s not the most exciting win, to be sure, but her entire career in film has thus far gone unrewarded, which is a shame considering the contributions to film she’s made for decades. At this rate, I don’t think anyone can upset her with Aniston out of the race.
But if we were just to look at the performances, the best of the five is, without a doubt, Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl, the performance of the year in the film of the year (shared with Boyhood and Selma, in my opinion). Pike’s Amazing Amy is one of those performances that will be talked about years from now, not unlike Jack Nicholson in The Shining or Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs. I have not had a more gloriously pleasurable moment watching any film this year as I did the scene in Gone Girl that happens at the hour mark.
The majority men I read talked about Gone Girl as though it was an inside joke they didn’t get. Maybe it was. Maybe they have been so cut off from the internal world of women that they can’t really picture it in this satirical form. Every line of dialogue in Flynn’s script is quotable and memorable. Like “The girl with the giant come-on-me-tits…now she looks like a mennonite.” Women in film in 2015 do not talk like that. They’ve been erased and replaced with Stepford wives.
I can’t argue with Moore finally winning but I’d be lying if I didn’t say I thought Pike’s was the best of the nominated five. I actually preferred Moore in Maps to the Stars. But as I say, I don’t think the Oscars mean much of anything except when they mean something and rewarding Moore means something. Shutting out Gone Girl was foolish and shortsighted of the Academy – but, like not nominating David Oyelowo and Ava DuVernay from Selma – it really only makes the Academy itself look even worse than it did before. They need to catch up to the modern world. They’re holding themselves, and their dying industry, back.
The supporting categories are locked. I don’t expect to see any surprises there – neither Patricia Arquette nor JK Simmons has a challenger. I don’t think Emma Stone can compete, nor do I think Edward Norton, though both are excellent can touch either of these beloved industry vets who delivered their best work in Boyhood and Whiplash.
Best Actor is wide open and as unpredictable as SAG ensemble. It’s down to the big three – Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game and Michael Keaton in Birdman. I myself have gone back and forth on them. It’s nearly impossible to decide. History tells that who wins here goes on to win the Oscar. This is the one category that draws a blank for me. All three have more than one SAG nod including ensemble. Two out of three are likable. Two out of three are British. I guess that means, to me, that Keaton has the slight edge, being that he’s the one not unlike the other two.
It’s hard to say who is most deserving as all three performances are as good as it gets. I suppose I’ll have to go with Keaton, though my brethren are mostly predicting Redmayne.
Let’s get her done, shall we?
Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Supporting
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood, JK Simmons, Whiplash
Ensemble
Birdman
If Birdman wins Ensemble and Boyhood wins PGA — that should make for an interesting final act. If Imitation Game wins either? Look out. If Boyhood wins both? Stick a fork in it.
Grand Budapest Hotel also has a huge ensemble and is perfect for this award. It will likely have no impact on the Best Picture race but it’s still worth noting.
Predict away!
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Sasha: is the scene you refer to– one hour into Gone Girl– the scene where Amy is dying her hair and driving down the highway with the long voiceover featuring the “cool girl” speech? I don’t have a copy of the film, so I’m guessing here, but if that is the scene you’re referring to, I totally agree. That scene is fucking boss (F-bomb explained below).
My favorite scenes of Gone Girl are Amy’s voiceovers, which says a lot because I usually hate voiceovers and narration in a film. However, Rosamund is so vicious, precise, and angry that she strikes the viewer as scary, funny, and clever all at the same time. It’s such a shame knowing that Rosamund will get no awards for her dynamo performance in which she plays one of the best (female) villains of all-time. She might nab the BAFTA, but it will be tough with the giant momentum Julianne Moore will have.
If you read the script that Gillian Flynn submitted (I’ve read parts), Fincher (and perhaps Flynn) made very subtle but very nice changes to the voiceovers. For example, in the cool girl speech, they changed it from “I drank bourbon and bantered…. I was game” to “I drank canned beer and remained a size 2. I was fucking game.” What a great line: I was fucking game. In four words, she summarizes her entire marriage and her struggle to cope with how Nick has changed.
I feel like Gone Girl is last year’s Her. It’s not getting the props that it deserves, and that’s not confined to Rosamund. Ditto on the movie, Fincher for direction, and Reznor for the score.
In ”Foxcatcher,” I found Steve Carell’s performance was too much on the nose, so to speak. I thought the prosthetic looked phony and reminiscent of Nicole Kidman’s unconvincing schnozz in ”The Hours.” Even though Carell plays him creepy, I’ve read that the real-life John du Pont was more paranoid and crazier than he’s depicted in ”Foxcatcher.” … Channing Tatum was actually a welcome surprise; he gets to go berserk in his hotel room, but I think the movie chickens out on showing us what set him off. … However, I don’t ”get” why Mark Ruffalo deserves a Supporting nomination. He’s OK, but not special.
I loved Grand Budapest, but it is filled with cameos; rather than an ensemble cast. Maybe I’m old fashioned (who i am kidding; i am!) but an ensemble is the Gosford Park, August Osage County – lots of thesps running around like chooks with their heads chopped and acting their tits off (ok, mixed metaphors run amok). GPH had an awesome cast, and there certainly clusters of actors strutting their stuff together; but Birdman personifies it more faithfully for me. Naomi Watts, Amy Ryan,Zach Galif and Andrea Riseborough provide a swirl of characters for the lead to bounce off. But yes, these awards are never what they are meant to be.
I liked Steve Carell’s performance. I don’t think he got in because he’s a comic actor turned serious. That’s wrong. The transformation probably helped him a bit, but I felt the performance stood out even more than Ruffalo’s. Tatum impressed as well.
“But I think that ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ is much more of an ensemble piece than ‘Birdman’ is. Why? Because Michael Keaton is the frontrunner for Best Actor at the Oscars. Being singled out in an ensemble film speaks volumes for that individual and not so much for the rest of the cast.”
Oh, come on… 🙂 Emma Stone and Edward Norton are both nominated as well – they just happen to be up against two unstoppable forces, Simmons and Arquette. On the other hand, the only actor from The Grand Budapest Hotel to have been nominated for any major awards so far is Fiennes (Globes, BAFTA). And in this context you’re saying Budapest is more of an ensemble piece?!…
Well, I’m glad that you found them rude AND silly!!
I will, but only out of admiration and respect for you, Mr. Adams.
It does seem that ‘Birdman’ will take Ensemble. But I think that ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ is much more of an ensemble piece than ‘Birdman’ is. Why? Because Michael Keaton is the frontrunner for Best Actor at the Oscars. Being singled out in an ensemble film speaks volumes for that individual and not so much for the rest of the cast. As for the PGA, ‘Boyhood’ all the way. DGA: Richard Linklater – ‘Boyhood.’ Definitely an afterthought. Now the WGA…they can be more unpredictable than their respective counterparts. I’m interested to see how the technical guilds do, also.
None of these races are tight for OSCAR.
Have you seen the Vegas odds for Actress?
Moore 1:9
Witherspoon. 8:1
Pike. 25:1
Jones. 40:1
Cotillard. 60:1
They’re trying to make it look close for Actor, but anyone with half a brain cell can see it’s going to Keaton.
[deleted — julianne the empress, stop with the rude silly insults. – Ryan]
Whoever wins best actress, am just glad Amy Adams is not in the running
I don’t see any shockers happening in the film awards.
I kinda am thinking Boyhood takes ensemble, though I’m gonna stick with Birdman even if just out of wishful thinking because I do think it’s the ensemble of the year.
Hmm… I wanna say Maggie Gyllenhaal will win, but I could also see them going with Cicely Tyson. I guess Maggie since Cicely’s film isn’t so fresh anymore, kinda old news at this point. A lot of times their TV choices are awful and confusing anyway, so I’m really just shooting in the dark here. Can’t really predict what they’ll go with. But I am thinking Viola, Uzo, and OITNB win. Again, even if wishful thinking.
^ I agree the B.A. race is tight, but I’d put Oyelowo (or Timothy Spall) above one-note Steve Carrell. Carrell only got the nom b/c of who he is, a beloved comic actor turned serious. Another unknown with the exact same performance will not be considered remarkable. Trust! But that’s Hollywood!
Watched nearly all the Oscar films and I agree with Sasha on the constant Gone Girl snub mentions, but I don’t see the love for Selma. IMHO neither David Oyelowo or Ava DuVernay were snubs, simply there were better nominees, especially in best actor where I could put minimum 7 guys ahead of Mr. Oyelowo, not that he was bad, he was great, but that cat is just too strong this year. Also Selma is far from a BP film for me and it’s isn’t winning anything anywhere anyway so call its lack of noms at the Oscar as a snub isn’t justified. Gone Girl is a different story, but we all know that Fincher doesn’t play the game.
I picked Boyhood for best ensemble but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Birdman.
Did you mean to put “Big BANK Theory?” That’s pretty funny considering the most recent contract negotiations.
It is disheartening entering this contest knowing I’m going to lose like every other one. My picks are Boyhood, Keaton, Moore, Simmons, Arquette, House of Cards, Modern Family (yawn), Jim Parsons (could be Burrell or Stonestreet), Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Viola Davis. Modern Family is so tired but the Sags pick the same over and over again, unlike the Globes, right? I bet we’ll be seeing the kids give the speech again. Bore.
I dont think Boyhood is polarizing but with its low-key style, typical indie look, viewers will either find it amazing or simply ok. There’s nothing controversial about it though, that certainly helps.
Yup, you’ve said it all along, Sasha… 🙂 And you were right. Although, to be fair, given how things have been going with the precursors, it probably would have won under any system. And with the preferential system, it’s got to be even more of a lock. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves – still a big hurdle to overcome, the biggest of them all: the guilds. Nothing’s decided yet… Although I think we would all be very, very surprised if anything else won the PGA/DGA at this point. But The King’s Speech happened, so who knows?!
I just can’t think of anything to really dislike about it,
And that’s how you find your winner with the preferential ballot.
“I finally saw Birdman yesterday; prompted by Claudiu’s impassioned promulgation of it! I really really liked it’ but I don’t see it threatening Boyhood for BP at the Oscars. I do however remove my previous statement that I was getting a Nick Nolte type of vibe from the performance. Although Mickey Rourke was feted and lost; Keaton’s turn is impressive in so many ways; a comeback of spectacular proportions. It is a shame that Ed Norton has come up against J.K Simmons; as he is pretty darn amazing in it. I loved Lindsay Duncan’s cameo – i first saw her on screen 30 years ago with Stephen Rea in ‘Loose Connections’. I wonder if Norton might prevail here at SAG? He really needs to be offered lead roles again – what a national treasure. As an actor’s film in every sense of the word; it wouldn’t surprise me to see ‘Birdman’ take the ensemble; but still lose BP.”
Awesome! 🙂 Norton is amazing in Birdman, he makes the movie for me, possibly even more than Keaton – although his character being the most interesting of them all helps, I would say. He’s the catalyst. But he’s great, no doubt. He’s always been great, in everything I’ve seen him in. And I simply loved Lindsay Duncan as the critic (so did my mom). The scenes she’s involved in are just awesome. Of course, my personal favorite remains Emma Stone’s performance, but, again, I’m not sure how objective I can be about that one, since I really, really like her in pretty much anything, almost by default. Then there’s Watts, Riseborough, Galifianakis, Ryan… just all great, each character adding something unique to the proceedings.
But Simmons and Arquette deserve to win over Norton and Stone, they were both simply outstanding. You’re right, Birdman’s supporting players are very unlucky to not have been nominated in a weaker year. And, clearly, Birdman has little to no chance of winning BP (it probably wouldn’t in any year, given how dark it is) after the rather telling defeats in the precursors and the editing snub. But I’d be happy if it got SAG Ensemble, as that’s an important prize in and of itself, and one I think it thoroughly deserves. The Grand Budapest Hotel would be a good winner too, but to me Birdman is clearly the more deserving. I think Boyhood wouldn’t necessarily be a great winner here, as there are at least a few supporting performances in it that aren’t that impressive. The Theory of Everything is great, but I don’t really think it’s an ensemble piece so much, I don’t think anybody really stands out, apart from the leads. Even the nomination is slightly weird… And The Imitation Game had some pretty good performances, but, overall, it’s nowhere near deserving of this award, in my opinion.
“Birdman will probably get a decent number of #1 but not many #2 or #3, it’s probably the most polarizing movie in the lineup.”
Clearly, you can tell even just by looking at the discussion on Awards Daily. But I disagree Boyhood is polarizing. I doubt it’ll be lower than 4th or 5th on more than a few ballots; it should easily be top 3 on almost all of them. I just can’t think of anything to really dislike about it, and all of the key nominations it got (the kind of universal love which Linklater’s movies have never been close to with AMPAS before) confirm that the Academy shares this view. And American Sniper should be even MORE polarizing than Birdman. I don’t think they would like what voting for it for BP would say about them as a group, it’s not a safe choice by any means, not in this day and age. 12 Years a Slave WAS a safe choice, in the current political context. American Sniper just screams controversy.
But, again, this is just speculation. 🙂 We’ll know FOR SURE what our front-runner is on Saturday. Unless there’s another tie… :))
Julianne Moore is one of my favorite actresses, she can do no wrong to me, but her performance of Still Alice reminded me a lot of Julie Christie in Away from Her. To this point, is obvious she’s going to win the Oscar, mainly because she’s way overdue and I agree with that. However, IMHO the Best Female Performance of 2014 were Marion Cotillard and Rosamund Pike, but I see zero possibility that one of them win. Besides I’m still upset that Patricia Arquette was put in the supporting category, when clearly, she was a lead in Boyhood.
I don’t know if it’s just me but, the Best Actor race is between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Michael is the favorite because is the performance of his career, but I woudn’t rule out a win for Eddie because The Theory of Everything was loved by the Actor branch and I ever remember that many actors like Scarlet Johannson and Hugh Jackman gave private screening to support the film and have praised Eddie’s performance. On the other hands, I definitely don’t see a surprise win of Benedict Cumberbatch because he hasn’t won any important award (Please correct me if I’m wrong) and Eddie has the advantage.
I’m not going to say anything about the Supporting race because Patricia Arquette and J.K Simmons are locked and so well deserved.
The only doubt that I have is, who is going to win Best Emsemble and I think is between Birdman and Boyhood. With Birdman, it can happen the same way American Hustle won last year, but Boyhood also can be the winner because of how original the film is and the dedication of the cast during 12 years of filming.
Birdman will probably get a decent number of #1 but not many #2 or #3, it’s probably the most polarizing movie in the lineup.
To a lesser extent, Boyhood will share the same fate only with many more #1.
The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel will get less #1 than both Boyhood and Birdman but probably more #2 and #3.
American Sniper? I doubt it will be a real challlenger.
I finally saw Birdman yesterday; prompted by Cladiu’s impassioned promulgation of it! I really really liked it’ but I don’t see it threatening Boyhood for BP at the Oscars. I do however remove my previous statement that I was getting a Nick Nolte type of vibe from the performance. Although Mickey Rourke was feted and lost; Keaton’s turn is impressive in so many ways; a comeback of spectacular proportions. It is a shame that Ed Norton has come up against J.K Simmons; as he is pretty darn amazing in it. I loved Lindsay Duncan’s cameo – i first saw her on screen 30 years ago with Stephen Rea in ‘Loose Connections’. I wonder if Norton might prevail here at SAG? He really needs to be offered lead roles again – what a national treasure. As an actor’s film in every sense of the word; it wouldn’t surprise me to see ‘Birdman’ take the ensemble; but still lose BP.
I appreciate your comments, Miss Stone, but OMG Gone Girl was a joke. I will concede and allow Rosamund Pike to be nominated without complaint. (Mind you, that is a concession) I will also compalin that Gillian Flynn was unfairly snubbed as it was a solid adaptation that stepped things up from her novel, from what I understand. I love David Fincher but…. OMG, what a horribly cyncial film where no one is likable and it just isn’t fun to watch them be unlikable. Rosamund Pike’s should be the ultimate neo-feminist, but she is a weak female, through and through, by my assessment. The acting borders on cartoonish.
“Thoughts???”
Well, it’s speculation, really. No way to know until the PGA announces (same system). They were saying 12 Years a Slave wouldn’t get enough 2nd and 3rd place votes last year, and it turned out Gravity didn’t… Let the PGA give us the only clue, then we can talk! 🙂
P.S.: I’ve been trying to submit my predictions above for a while now, but I just don’t get a receipt in my email Inbox. Is that normal? Have my predictions been recorded?
Yes, if Boyhood wins SAG it’s over, although I think that might be the case if it wins PGA. If Sniper wins PGA then it might be all over but the DGA shouting.
If one of the other three contenders wins PGA then I’ll place stock in their SAG win.
Boyhood and to a lesser extent sniper have more viable paths to best picture.
Although, how important did the editing guild award just become?
Crazy, I know, but fun to contemplate. This Phase 2 🙂
I already predicted SAG above. Now for my most recent thoughts about Oscar.
What if this happens:
I really wonder if Grand Budapest might win BP. It will get lots of 1s, 2s, and all-important 3s on ballots. Boyhood will get tons of 1s, but will it get enough? Will people turn on the frontrunner and place it lower on ballots? Budapest has noms for Director, Writing, Editing, et al. Its not as polarizing as, say, a Birdman may be. Its got Nazis/WWII. Its got a SAG Ensemble nod (support from actors). Its got the highest nom count from BAFTA. Anddddd, winning BP would awards Wes Anderson a statue, while also likely giving one to Linklater for Director and Inarritu for Original Screenplay.
That would mean Budapest gets Picture, Production Design, Maybe Costumes, Make-Up, perhaps Score. 3-5 wins.
Boyhood gets Director and Supp. Actress.
Birdman gets Actor, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.
Sniper for Editing and one or both of the Sounds.
Imitation Game gets Adapted Screenplay, if not more.
Moore gets Actress. Simmons gets Supp. Actor.
Selma gets Song. Last time a movie actually contended to Win with as little as 1 or 2 total noms was the year a movie with the word Hotel was in the title. Haha.
So nearly every major movie nommed is covered somewhere.
Thoughts???
“History shows that any win at SAG will make you competitive for Oscars BP.”
True. The only movies since 1996 (the SAG era) to win BP without winning any SAG awards are Braveheart, Gladiator and The Hurt Locker. (If I have this written down correctly, that is…). So, if the 4 frontrunners win the acting races, then Boyhood, Birdman and whatever wins Best Ensemble will be the only ones who qualify (by this particular rule). Of course, those three exceptions mean there could always be a fourth… but still a reasonably strong rule.
This oscar race is sooooo boring. They should give awards to Emma Stone, Ed Norton or anybody else. This year has amazing performances that should be appreciated. What they want to prove giving awards still to the same people?
Julianne, I know it’s not too likely but don’t count out Cotillard. Stranger things have happened.
If Boyhood wins ensemble, it’s completely over. But even if it doesn’t win, it doesn’t mean anything for the ensemble winner. Boyhood will win best supporting actress and that would make it still a frontrunner. Best ensemble doesn’t equate best picture at the Oscars. History shows that any win at SAG will make you competitive for Oscars BP. If Emma Stone wins best supporting actress and Birdman wins best ensemble, only then should we pause and re-examine the race.
I agree with Paddy. Aniston never had a shot. What makes you think the race is so close, Sasha. There’s zero evidence to support this. More Gone Girl-style bias, I suspect. Julianne has had this since September, and it’s by a considerable, double digit lead at that.
Sometimes I wonder from whence you pull this crap. One speech, my ass.
I’m going to repeat what I wrote on another forum.
I was listening to a radio host and he’s a SAG and Oscar member. He said Oscars sent him so many screeners he didn’t have time to watch the movies, so he just voted on the ones he saw (which wasn’t many). As for the TV noms, he said he voted for the names he knew, because he didn’t watch much TV.
How’s that for voting? Not any better than what the average american does — they vote for who they know.
I’ve lost faith in these awards and will only consider them “entertainment” and not to be taken serious.
Ensemble – thinking Birdman, maybe Budapest. Imitation 3rd.
Actor – Keaton. Redmayne/Cumberbatch behind.
Actress – Moore.
S.Actor – Simmons.
S.Actress – Arquette.
J.K. Simmons is obviously getting Best Supporting Actor
Patricia Arquette is obviously getting Best Supporting Actress
Julianne Moore is obviously getting Best Actress (Haven’t seen Still Alice yet, but I have been keeping up with awards season.)
I’m still not sure about Best Actor. I don’t think it’s WIDE open, but definitely between Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton. I think I’ll give the edge to Keaton.
Best Ensemble will probably go to Grand Budapest, Birdman, or Boyhood. Best Ensemble doesn’t equal Best Picture, however, so I don’t know. I do however feel that Boyhood winning this would only more solidfy it’s win at the Oscars, basically because it would be sweeping the top prize at each award show, with only Budapest having the rival win at the Globes for Comedy/Musical.
I do think there is a good chance they’ll give it to something more flashy, like Birdman or Budapest. (Like giving it to American Hustle over Best Picture front-runner 12 Years a Slave.) They did award it to Slumdog Millionaire though, so maybe Boyhood could take it.
Finally…someone that also thinks that Pike was the best performance of the year. Without any doubts! The Oscars should recognize the performances that are goin to be talked for many years and Pike simply became Amy Dunne, with all that paranoic schemes and her facial expresions, she was remarkable! Moore’s perfromance is so normal, it’s not even her best but i understand that they want to recognize her and this year is probably the best for it, simply because i agree that only Aniston (BTW, i didn’t see Cake but i don’t have plans to do it because i don’t want to see a awful movie and the story seems horrible…) could really give her a race but she’s out so this is Moore’s to lose because Gone Girl unfortunately only had this nomination, Witherspoon has already one Oscar and another would be a disaster, Jones is simply being overshadowed by Redmayne and Cotillard is already a victory to be nominated in a foreign language movie…For Best Actor, since Gyllenhaal was snubbed, at least give Keaton the Oscar! I simply loved Birdman and he was phenomenal, it was his show and for those who didn’t watched and think that this is Keaton doing himself you are completly wrong becuase is more than that, A LOT MORE! I honestly think that Redmayne’s performance was nothing special, it was the type of role that is made just for the Oscars, and for me Cumberbatch was great but the movie is sooooo normal…I already saw American Sniper and i have to say this: why all the love for this movie? It really touched me, but a couple days ago i said that this was a patriotic movie and i was right, it’s more like a publicity to the american army…i love Cooper’s performance and it’s easily his best in his career but i have to say this again: he and Carell should have been replaced by Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo…Simmons and Arquette are locks, no one can stop them!
daveinprogress
Touche. Best Actor, I have no idea. My right-now guess is Keaton, simply thinking the Brit geniuses will cancel each other out and Cooper is way too late to the party (no precursors whatsoever)…BUT the fact that American Sniper will pretty much dominate the Box Office all through the voting period, may just be enough to deliver one big, unprecedented surprise (=Cooper)…then again, Harvey Weinstein is a genius in his own right when it comes to the ‘last phase’ of the season so if The Imitation Game gains traction somewhere (SAG Ensemble, PGA, spectacular Bafta-love), Cumberbatch could quietly sneak in and take it from the two who are considered stronger therefore may battle for votes with each other (Keaton, Redmayne). So in the end Keaton could be mickeyrourked out, Cumberbatch could adrienbrody himself in, Redmayne could just deliver the expected (GG drama winners tend to win the Oscar)…or Cooper could surprise big time.
Wrong, George.
Frankly, you must have seen a different film than me and everyone else, because Moore’s performance in Still Alice is one of the most heart-wrenching pieces of screen acting ever put on film. The scene where she delivers the speech to the Alzheimer’s crowd is positively sublime. To say that Pike’s ghostly cipher, very well played, is one of the all-time best performances is a bit of a stretch. Moore in no way is “begging for an Oscar” in Still Alice. It’s an intelligent, dignified and tragic portrait and she doesn’t for one minute sentimentalize — at all. There are layers and levels and nuances to her work that are quite apparent throughout, particularly when you see the massive change late in the movie as she watched a video of her former self. It’s very unfair and biased to dismiss her outright in such a cliche fashion.
I think if Grand Budapest does win this it COULD mean something to the Best Picture race.
If actors go for Grand Budapest over the more actorly Birdman and frontrunner Boyhood – it could mean even greater support than we realize.
Budapest is the nomination co-leader after all.
@Lou.There was nothing special about Julliane Moores performance in still Alice.That doesnt mean she wont win,she will.I am just saying that Rosamund Pike deserves it more.
It would be great to see research on the general public’s opinion about the Oscars. For me it’s super fun to follow the race, but almost everyone I know only become aware of the Oscars after news about the nominations start appearing and some of them watch the show if they’re home and don’t have other plans. Ratings have been consistent and even up in recent years, and I don’t think most people’s opinion about the “value” of an Oscar win has changed. Any claim about the Oscar or the industry’s diminished relevance are greatly exaggerated.
Coming back to the SAG, I think Boyhood will take ensemble, and it’s game over for everyone else. I also think Keaton has it in the bag. And, while I agree that Moore was better (or certainly more interesting and complex) in Maps to the Stars, she still deserves to win compared to the other nominees. Pike was ok, but her performance was nothing special, I can’t imagine any other mildly competent actress that wouldn’t have been great in such a good role.
Its a terrible thing that Julliane Moore has to win because she is overdue.I know i will be attacked for this,but sorry guys she was not the best actress this year.Have you guys actually watched still Alice?The performance was just screaming” give me an oscar”.Rosamund Pike should win because her performance was anything but safe.One of the best female performances of all time is been swept under the rug because of politics.Its a real shame. Julliane Moore has been proclaimed the” winner” before her movie even came out so who am i to talk.The Academy used to be lot better way back when great performance were awarded as opposed to awarding popularity.In a world were Jennifer Lawrence can win an Oscar for Silver linnings Playbook, who i am to talk.