“I talked to my friends in the Academy and none of them are voting for Boyhood,” an Academy member told me. Actually, I don’t think of him as an Academy member but a smart, funny, engaged, curious filmmaker. His information greatly disappointed me. I tried not to be an asshole about it but you know, some things really can’t be kept in. The thing about the awards race that will always confound me is that people don’t vote on it like they’re choosing “the best” or the “highest achievement.” They pick what they like best. It’s as simple as that. Everything else they characterize as “noise.”
“I’m picking Whiplash for number one, Selma for number two and Birdman for number three,” he said.
“Why don’t you just put Birdman at number one and be done with it,” I said, knowing that neither Whiplash nor Selma will ever get near enough votes to put them over the top. With a preferential ballot it’s a two, sometimes three, picture race. Whichever comes in at number 1 or 2 or three tends to stay there. Isn’t it funny how Unpredictable people are?
No one voting for Boyhood? This again? It seems like every year there is the film voters SHOULD pick and the film voters just pick because they don’t want to pick the frontrunner. We’ll never know if everyone thought Birdman would win coming out of Telluride, or if the Globes and the Critics Choice had picked Birdman, thrusting it into the spotlight as “the frontrunner” whether it would still be a done deal.
Somehow, Birdman became the little movie that could that industry voters liked and Boyhood became the MEAN OLD FRONTRUNNER easily taken down as multitudes of men chanted quietly, to each other, “if you take out the 12 years thing it isn’t anything special.” To my mind, if you take out the camera trickery in Birdman you essentially have a very good stage play. Back in the 1980s that wouldn’t have been thought of as cinema but in 2015, it’s the closest thing show people have to seeing the selves they recognize and like. As good as Birdman is, and it is very very good, it simply can’t top Boyhood in terms of ambition or execution.
But it isn’t for me to say. This voter, this friend of mine, believed Birdman to be the better film in terms of cinema. The whole industry seems to agree from producers to actors to sound people and tonight, to cinematography. I don’t even know the results of the ASC but I know how it will go. I’m not sure how much longer the self-congratulation thing is going to go on but I console myself with the BAFTA having open out. Now I know for a certainty that British people, if they aren’t smarter than Americans, are certainly less self-absorbed than the American film industry which can’t seem to break free of its own image in the mirror.
You want to win an Oscar? Make a movie about show people. Make it funny. Make it sexy. Make them look really really good — or if not good, at least noble. They are fighting the good fight, standing up for true art and all of that. At least, that’s what they want the awards to be about: themselves. If they really admired standing up for true art they would reward the true art itself, and not the one about the artists trying to make true art.
“How many did you talk to,” I asked, wondering just how many precious minutes of my short life I was going to have to spend thinking about what these people are going to do with their votes. “About fifteen,” he answered back.
The same week, the Los Angeles Times had posted a cock tease article that said two voters WERE voting for Boyhood. One was voting for Grand Budapest Hotel. Not a Birdman supporter in sight. But faithful to the notion that they can’t really be doing this to Richard Linklater, and that they can’t really walk by one of the most beautifully made American masterpieces of naturalist cinema, here is Entertainment Weekly, putting their faith that Boyhood WILL win and Inarritu will keep up the tradition in the directing category. The Gurus of Gold put on a brave face and do that wonderful thing we pundits do when all hope is lost – grab onto the rope and hang on more tightly.
Boyhood is not winning this thing and Linklater isn’t winning director. They have put their full and unanimous support around Birdman and that, really, is that. I do love the moment when hope is kept alive. Hope is a beautiful thing. Emily D put it best:
“Hope” is the thing with feathers –
That perches in the soul –
And sings the tune without the words –
And never stops – at all –
And sweetest – in the Gale – is heard –
And sore must be the storm –
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm –
I’ve heard it in the chillest land –
And on the strangest Sea –
Yet – never – in Extremity,
It asked a crumb – of me.
So when I read that Dave Karger and Anne Thompson and Peter Travers are still predicting Boyhood to win it gives me hope – that tricky thing with feathers. Boyhood would be a great thing for the Academy to stop staring at themselves and look upward and outward at life and art and all beautiful things that can be made by someone who took such care to make them.
I won’t predict Birdman but you should. The question is, how many Oscars is it going to win? When Grand Budapest won the Writers Guild it seems to have enough momentum to carry on through to the big night. That would leave Birdman with:
Picture, Director, Cinematography, one of the sound awards maybe.
And then the Oscars might look like:
Birdman: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Editing or Mixing
Theory of Everything: Actor, maybe score, maybe adapted screenplay
Grand Budapest: Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup, maybe score
Sniper: Maybe editing, maybe sound
Imitation Game: Maybe adapted screenplay
Whiplash: Maybe adapted screenplay, maybe editing, supporting actor
Boyhood: Supporting Actress, maybe editing
Selma: Song
And with that, I’m ready to dub this year among the worst years of Oscar watching I have personally ever had. Never have the Oscar voters and the industry voters seemed to narrow-minded and closed off from everything else happening and evolving around them. Never have they seemed so small.
But hey, there’s always next year. A poll.
What film will win Best Picture?
(polls)
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Bryce, I agree with you re: Prisoners. I want something structurally clean and thematically dark for Sicario. I want it REALLY dirty.
Kiefer — don’t get me wrong — I wasn’t criticizing Boyhood when I said it was like an undirected home movie, but just making an observation about how “low key” it comes across.
Over and over the Academy has shown that it likes being hammered over the head, and rewarding films for their most obvious achievements, and punishing films whose achievements are subtle. The action film with the most cuts gets the editing award. the film with the lushest prettiest pictures gets cinematography. The scenery chewing actor wins over the actor who appeared to “do nothing”. And with direction, Birdman is showier in how it is directed, so it seems more likely to me that Inarritu will win that if there is a Pic/Director split.
“Plus, Boyhood doesn’t really need to win Best Picture. That film will live on for the ages.”
I know, right?! But, when I say it, people get offended and call me ignorant…
Haven’t seen boyhood yet but birdman is just a fine film with several great performances. If it should win an Oscar it must be the acting category
SCOTT: THE OTHER ONE – “Boyhood almost looks like an undirected home movie”
I will agree, the movie does meander a bit . . . but I think that is part of its charm and allure. I think it is intentionally directed that way. It seems so natural, and the characters so real . . . that’s a very hard feat to pull off for a director. I guess that’s why I think he’s a lock. Also, the dedication by Linklater to pull off this movie has to be admired . . . and I think it will be. DGA may have gone for Innaritu . . . but the directors branch is a very small branch of AMPAS, and I think Linklater’s film has more likeability (breadth of appeal) than Innaritu. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy both are nominated. My big wish, though is that “The Grand Budapest Hotel” wins Best Picture, “Boyhood” wins Best Director, and “Birdman” wins Best Screenplay. Totally spread the wealth around. I’d be ecstatic if there was a split with the 3 big awards.
And off topic a little bit from Best Picture. But my boss just saw “Selma” this weekend (admittedly, I have not seen the film), and he said it was CRIMINAL and UNJUSTIFABLE that David Oyelowo was not nominated for Best Actor this year. And he sees a movie every week. An observation like that I pay attention to . . . will try to catch “Selma” this weekend before awards time.
Didn’t we do this in 2013? The whole thing of folks going “everyone I know is voting for Riva” and it turned out to be nothing?
“Wes Anderson HAS to win something even if it’s just for the pleasure of hearing his acceptance speech.”
Yeah, I know. He’s awesome. But relax, he is going the screenplay award.
Wes Anderson HAS to win something even if it’s just for the pleasure of hearing his acceptance speech.
”Clearly people’s problem isn’t “Birdman winning”. It’s “Boyhood losing”. There would be hatred towards any movie who stole Boyhood’s thunder. Had TGBH won the guilds, people would attack it for beating Boyhood.”
Speaking for myself, I actually DO have a problem with ”Birdman” winning. But it’s not for the reason you might guess. There are those who find ”Birdman” pretentious, contrived and self-consciously artsy. But my bigger problem is its condescending depiction of New York theater, which I love. It’s a movie made by people who don’t know how Broadway works (i.e., the Times critic doesn’t attend the opening night to review a show; she’d go to a press preview). That said, I happen to think that ”Boyhood” is the superior movie. Its detractors whine that it wouldn’t be anything special if it weren’t filmed over 12 years with the same cast, but the reality is that it WAS. And no one, until Linklater, ever did this before in a 3-hour fictional feature. Oscar or no Oscar, ”Boyhood” has made cinema history. As for ”Grand Budapest Hotel,” I’d be happy, too, if Wes Anderson’s fun and fanciful farce won Best Picture.
Benutty
SICARIO sounds absolutely wonderful from top to bottom. Let’s just hope that the second edition of the Villeneuve/Deakins collaboration is more in line with the structural rigor of ENEMY and POLYTECHNIQUE than with the embroidery and overemphasis of PRISONERS.
Keifer — Why do you think Linklater is a lock?
If there is a split, I’ve been leaning to Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director. Birdman is the more “obviously directed” film. Boyhood almost looks like an undirected home movie, whereas the intrusion of the Director into the vision of Birdman is very apparent.
So just wodnering what your theory is about Linklater for Director.
It pains me, but I’m slowly, however, moving towards predicting Birdman for BP and Director, after resisting this for so long. The across the board guild wins, plus the type of movie that Birdman as (versus Boyhood) lead to this result. I’m not saying anything new here — just that it has taken me a while to bring myself round to this outcome. I’d far rather Boyhood wins, but I’m very influenced by some of the people here who have written about how un-Hollywood it is, and how the Academy never crowns as BP those small, indie, low budget, non-Hollywood critics’ darlings.
If the “unbroken” guy Dave Karger is predicting Boyhood to win is the confirmation it will lose. That pundit lost all credibility when he stayed on that train, even when the bad reviews came.
My predictons this year kind of reminds me of 1967 . . . the movie where “The Graduate” won its ONLY Oscar for the late, great Mike Nichols.
Linklater for Best Director / Arquette for BSA. I think these are locks.
It’s kind of fun to have a competitive year again, though, yes?
I think “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is going to win this year.
Just a hunch. It seems like the kind of movie that appeals to AMPAS voters. It got oodles of nominations, is loved by the guilds, and most importantly, just won WGA. It might be a trade-off . . . but I think there are enough AMPAS members to put it at No. 1 or No. 2 to push it over the top.
Linklater, however, I think is unstoppable for Best Director. He deserves it for “Boyhood”.
DANNY: “The knock against Innaritu was always that he made pretentious, ultimately hollow movies”
Then these people need to see Innaritu’s Spanish film “Biutiful” with Javier Bardem. This movie is anything but pretentious and hollow.
It’s a moving, complex and heartbreaking piece of astonishing filmmaking. One of my favorite movies of the last decade, and one which I thought Bardem should have won Best Actor. Heh, at least he was nominated, thank god.
re: Sorrentino^^^ I mean “return to English” not debut
Still predicting AMERICAN SNIPER for best pic. My wish, if this BIRDMAN win is indeed happening, is it at least secures Keaton best actor.
Directed at those transitioning this thread into a Most Anticipated of 2015 conversation, here’s what I’m looking forward to the most (there’s a lot I’m looking forward to):
The obvious: Knight of Cups, The Sea of Trees, Carol, Macbeth, The Revenant, The Martian
But also:
– SICARIO: Villeneuve directing Blunt, Del Toro and Brolin with Deakins back on the lens and Johannsson scoring.
– MILES AHEAD: Cheadle writing for and directing himself as Miles Davis with McGregor in support.
– MORE JAKE GYLLENHAAL: Everest, Southpaw, Demolition
– THE RETURN OF RACHEL WEISZ: The Light Between Two Oceans, The Lobster, The Early Years
– SPEAKING OF THE EARLY YEARS, THE EARLY YEARS: Sorrentio’s English-language debut.
– THE LAST FACE: Penn directing Theron, Bardem and Exarchopoulos.
– EVERY THING WILL BE FINE: Wenders directing in 3D about grief starring McAdams, Franco and Gainsbourg with Desplat scoring and great reviews out of Berlin.
– SPEAKING OF GREAT REVIEWS OUT OF BERLIN, 45 YEARS: Haigh directing Berlin-winning performances by Rampling and Courtenay.
Al, I might be more fonder of Emmerich’s films than your average AD reader, but I’m super curious to see what he does with the material.
Bryce, you’re mention of Stonewall is the first I’ve heard of it. It sounds interesting. But, I didn’t figure Roland Emmerich wanted to make a straight-up drama. I’ll put it on my list of 2015 movies to see. Right now I’m most looking forward to Black Mass, The Hateful Eight, and Southpaw.
What, am the only one looking forward to Emmerich’s STONEWALL?
Boring
Clearly people’s problem isn’t “Birdman winning”. It’s “Boyhood losing”. There would be hatred towards any movie who stole Boyhood’s thunder. Had TGBH won the guilds, people would attack it for beating Boyhood. And c’mon, it could be worse. Losing to Birdman is far less painful than losing to The Imitation Game or The Theory of Everything. Now THAT would be King-speechingly disappointing. Birdman can be a lot of things, but MEDIOCRE is not one of them. Nor is OSCAR BAIT.
“You want to win an Oscar? Make a movie about show people. Make it funny. Make it sexy. Make them look really really good — or if not good, at least noble. They are fighting the good fight, standing up for true art and all of that. At least, that’s what they want the awards to be about: themselves.”
Oh, you mean like “Me and Orson Welles”? 🙂 Didn’t even get a supporting nod for Christian MacKay.
Boyhood was my second favorite film of 2014 (behind Inherent Vice), and it will live as an extraordinary achievement. To be honest, I’m amazed we are even in a position to be upset if it doesn’t WIN best picture. It’s a little movie from a nothing studio, not much of a crowd pleaser (like all small movie Oscars usually are), and it’s almost 3 hours long. Not really checking many Oscar boxes.
Birdman would be a fine Best Picture winner. It would easily be the second best film of the 5 that have won this decade. It’s bold, entertaining, and memorable, if not the deep resonant work that Boyhood is. Plus, Boyhood doesn’t really need to win Best Picture. That film will live on for the ages.
Best Pictures of the Decade;
1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Birdman/Boyhood
3) The King’s Speech
4) Argo
5) The Artist
Gosh, I liked Whiplash but I don’t think that deserves a Best Picture award. The dynamic between Miles Teller and J. K. Simmons, though effective, was pretty obvious after the first half hour. And after the car crash the script lost credibility. Unlike others, I found the Carnegie Hall ending a letdown. So I personally would be disappointed if Whiplash won BP. I guess I’m rooting for Budapest, Selma, Boyhood, Birdman — any of these would be OK.
Hi there
It’s the first time for a long long time that i’m commenting here but i swear i read you every single day and i genuinely think that the Awards Daily Community is the most varied, diverse, insightful and prestigious awards community online!
This year i wanted to create for the first time a Simulated Oscar Ballot in the main Oscar categories for my italian peers…
Would You like to contribute to the final amount of European/Mediterranean vote? 🙂
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1q_tLHPfWk-r18AK-vu6KXqiYxKdQzZTdsaNrnYsbukU/viewform
The trick used to be not minding. Now it is to throw the toys out of the pram and have a bet each-way on who will win.
One academy member thinks is amazing of Whiplash wins? One member? Really? I wouldn’t put any stock in anecdotes- we’ve heard bad for Boyhood and bad for Birdman, who knows. Better to go on precursors than a handful of voter anecdotes.
In a preferential ballot in a tight race it’s the preference list that counts which might not be # 1’s so even you’re going to use a small number of voters, you’d need to know their #2, 3 etc for those that aren’t putting Birdman or Boyhood #1.
Whiplash is my #2 for the year. I wish it had of done better in the precursors. It has no chance of winning best picture tho.
Interesting is what Péter Hammond is saying :
“But does that mean — with all the guild results now in except for Costume Designers, who hold their awards show tomorrow — that Birdman is a sure thing for Oscar? No. This is still too tight a race and voting has been coming in extremely late this year. Oddly, when talking to members — some even casting their ballots as we speak — I don’t get a unanimous verdict on anything. Whiplash, in fact, remains the mentioned movie with those I talk to. One Academy member said, “It would be AMAZING if Whiplash wins. There will be many stroke victims in the audience”. This member voted for it across the board. And despite the guilds, that pair of triple BAFTA wins for both Boyhood and Whiplash carry significant weight.”
And Mark Harris :
“@MarkHarrisNYC: Most Oscar voters I’ve talked to aren’t voting for Birdman for Best Picture. The sense I get is that nothing has a majority, or close to it.”
Is a surprise coming ?
Apart from the guilds, another major factor for Birdman has been its emergence as THE boyhood alternative. I think boyhood benefitted earlier in the race by the lack of a single competitor, there was always several.
The editing nomination is explained by the particulars of the film. If there was nothing peculiar about the editing, the lack of editing nom would have been more a negative I think
Yup, the BP votes confirm it – in the US/Canada Boyhood got 50% more votes than Birdman (final counts, so this means number of higher placings), but in Europe it got only 10% more votes (same comment)…
I was looking at director, though. 🙂 But I think it’s relevant, nonetheless… I doubt that many people had splits on their ballots.
““The other thing I have noticed is that Boyhood performs a lot better that Birdman with international Academy members – that could be an important block.”
Interesting… the BAFTA win corroborates this. Does anybody have any (even just approximate) numbers on American vs. international Oscar voters?”
Update – the AD simulated ballot doesn’t confirm it, though, at least as far as Europe is concerned. Birdman actually got an extra 10% of votes in Europe, and Boyhood about 11-12% less, than in the US/Canada. So, unclear…
If I were an Academy member, I would vote for a film that moved me. Those films this year are Boyhood and American Sniper.
In Boyhood, seeing the little boy grow up before our eyes made the film that much more authentic. Seeing children whose parents are divorced and how they are shuttled between households, and all the confusion they go through as they grow up is all too common. As the Boyhood cast said at the BAFTA’s, it’s good to be recognized for a film that shows simple human interaction and how meaningful it can be.
Bradley Cooper in American Sniper was incredible, another moving performance.
It would be great for some upsets on Oscar night, but I’m not counting on it.
”I re-state my theory that Boyhood, if it loses, will NOT be forgotten.”
If it loses, ”Boyhood” won’t be forgotten because it’ll join the illustrious company of ”Brokeback Mountain,” ”The Social Network,” etc., contemporary classics that swept most of the critics’ prizes but didn’t win the Best Picture Oscar. And while one can dispute individual reviews, the fact is that it’s registered a 100% rating at Metacritic (”Birdman” has a 88%). Also: ”Boyhood” was No. 1 on 72 critics’ top 10 lists; ”Birdman” was No. 1 on just 12 of them.
”Opinions have no objective value, irrespective of who they come from.” That’s true of awards, too.
Whether you’re a voting critic or a voting Academy member, it’s a subjective call. It’s a consensus.
Of course, we root for our favorites. And different constituencies can yield different results.
Sometimes, we agree with the winners. Sometimes, we don’t. And that’s showbiz!
“This is really coming down to the wire! Even just earlier this evening an op-ed plant against “Boyhood” popped up on The Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/its-okay-if-you-didnt-like-boyhood_b_6694772.html”
Thanks for the link, man. The piece actually looks like a thesis. If someone is willing to write an article that long to trash a movie, he must fear something! 🙂
“Never have the Oscar voters and the industry voters seemed to narrow-minded and closed off from everything else happening and evolving around them. Never have they seemed so small.”
What in the world is Sasha Stone talking about? Please enlighten me. Is she still ticked that Selma didn’t get nominated for Best Director or Best Actor?
Say what you want about Birdman, but it didn’t have anything nearly as cringe-worthy as that scene in Boyhood in the unfinished house with Mason and his friends drinking with those older kids. I know Linklater likes using non-professionals, and in the case of Ellar Coltrane in worked, but good god were the kids playing those older kids awful. They were After School Special bad. It took me right out of the film. And it’s too bad too, because that is actually a very accurate and realistic scenario, the kids playing it were just terrible.
This is really coming down to the wire! Even just earlier this evening an op-ed plant against “Boyhood” popped up on The Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/its-okay-if-you-didnt-like-boyhood_b_6694772.html
why boyhood appears as frontrunner and has a red + as winner of the DGA?
Yet another year with the “Crash beats Brokeback Mountain” and “The King’s Speech beats The Social Network” case. But at the end of the day, who cares? Maybe it got the whole competition a bit more exciting, which is indeed odd – since when do we look forward for a upset so much that we suddenly decide to dismiss the film that might truly leave his page in the film history?
“My whole point has been what’s more likely. Calling Birdman a lock is not an accurate reading of the precursors”
I know. 🙂 That’s why I completely disagree with Missan calling you “not objective”…
“Birdman is a great ensemble but Keaton is the core of it. That is undeniable.”
Nothing is undeniable, ESPECIALLY when it comes to art.
Voting for Birdman without doing the same with Keaton is like voting The King’s Speech and not Colin Firth. Birdman is a great ensemble but Keaton is the core of it. That is undeniable.
Rob, that’s like saying that you can’t have a thoughtful discussion about multi-variate predictive analytics with regards to the oscars. Which we both know is a topic you would love, but regular folk may not. So my point is, it depends on whom you ask, and what their knowledge well contains.
Re Keaton, he’s great but doesn’t carry the film like Redmayne.
The ensemble in Birdman is outstanding and I think the supporting role of Galifanakas has been hugely underrated in the awards season
This is the best Oscars site around.
Sasha and Ryan’s passion is one of the good thing about this site, but it often turns into quite bitter posts, which I think aren’t necessary.
For once the race is between two films that a lot of posters here love, we should celebrate that
Claudiu, great summary above. SAG/PGA/DGA and the other guilds make Birdman more likely. GG/BAFTA/critics choice make Boyhood a formidable challenger that could still win.
My whole point has been what’s more likely. Calling Birdman a lock is not an accurate reading of the precursors
@Claudiu
I get that Sasha and Ryan are very passionate people when it comes to film. I don’t agree with them 100% of the time, but I also believe they are not arrogant people just because they love one film. The beauty about them is that they can be articulate in their passionate support for Boyhood without being ignorant to the facts or resorting to name calling (looking at Jeff Wells).
Outstanding post EDWARD AGUIAR DE ANDRADE!…
“For those of us who love Birdman this will be a great year for AMPAS if it wins.”
Hear, hear!
“When their favorite wins like Hurt Locker it’s all sweetness and light, when their favorite doesn’t, it’s evil AMPAS all the way, something is wrong, etc etc”
Yeah – more balance would be nice. It’s not a big deal, of course. I like passionate people. But I do hope the year comes when Sasha and Ryan (for example) don’t agree on the front-runner and how much they like it, because it’ll be an interesting change of pace. It’s sort of like that with Birdman this year, because Sasha really likes it, but Ryan hates it. Still, they both love Boyhood and think it should win, so the talk, naturally, revolves more around that one. Not many debates about Birdman… But I hope one day there are two front-runners, and Sasha loves one but hates the other, whereas Ryan has the exact opposite opinion. 🙂 It’d be an interesting season, I bet!
“Yeah because critics have never been wrong before. (The Night of the Hunter, Psycho, Fight Club, The Shining) […] Many people – critics, industry, members on here – clearly legitimately think that Birdman is the best movie of the year.”
Thank you, Patrick!…
“But there is objective truth, the truth is that Boyhoods critical acclaim is the highest its been in decades. That’s a fact.”
A fact that proves nothing, because opinions have no objective value, irrespective of who they come from. All people make mistakes, and even large groups of people (or smaller groups, but of very intelligent/qualified people) have made major mistakes in the past as well, this history shows beyond any reasonable doubt. Not saying Boyhood IS OR IS NOT the objectively best movie, just saying nobody will ever know, because the man has not yet been born that knows everything (or even 1% of everything, really) about the universe.
“These metacritic guys don’t have a clue. Gravity got a 96 for Christ’s sake!”
Good point. Gravity, with all its qualities, has flaws that are WAY too big for it to ever legitimately be considered a 9.6/10. They were clearly wrong there, if we’re going with the “objective truth exists” theory…
“Well, 12 Years a Slave got a 97”
The fact that they get it right a lot does not in any way prove that they’re infallible. The fact that they clearly HAVE overrated movies in the past – see Gravity example – DOES, however, prove that they AREN’T. They definitely do not hold a monopoly on objective truth, should such a thing even exist. Nobody does.
“Curious what your criteria is for a movie that “stands the test of time.” Because I would bet money both Boyhood and Birdman will be forgotten rather quickly.”
I re-state my theory that Boyhood, if it loses, will NOT be forgotten, no matter what, simply because too many people will forever be bitching about its undeservedly having lost BP. I doubt Birdman’s fans would be anywhere near as upset – it wasn’t the front-runner for 90% of the season, for one…
“But yeah, I don’t believe that the movie that STANDS THE TEST OF TIME has to be the “best” film of the year.”
Thank you, John! Neither do I. Nobody can say for sure what will stand the test of time or not… NOBODY.
“It’s ridiculous to vote on the basis of “which movie will best stand the test of time” since, unless you have a time machine, how the hell do you know the answer to this question? To use my previous example, many were shocked when Private Ryan lost in 1998 but looking back on it, Shakespeare In Love stands out as the better film. For all we know, Boyhood will (no pun intended) age terribly.”
I so agree with SiL being the better movie… it’s slowly becoming one of my all-time favorites…
“The list of films that haven’t won Best Picture Oscars is far superior to the list of those that have.”
Yeah, that’s actually because there’s hundreds of the former each year, but only ONE of the latter.
“I actually completely agree that this is what BOYHOOD is. But that’s why I don’t think it’s the Best Picture of this or any year. It would also make it that BOYHOOD is actually for people who want to see themselves, much like BIRDMAN is accused of being a film the Academy will like because it’s about themselves. I guess it all depends on who you are and if you want to see movies about yourself.”
Well said, Antoinette! Indeed, it’s quite clear that the (perhaps a touch exaggerated) love for Boyhood is as much subjective as the love for Birdman, and the fact that the former is more loved by critics in no way makes it superior (see above). Boyhood’s supporters can no more defend its (not many, but obvious) flaws than Birdman’s. Nor can they bring more (or more compelling) arguments for why it’s better. This much I’ve learned reading people’s heated debates this year…
““Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?)”
Ailidh, do you really believe there isn’t a woman alive who has ever said something like that? Try watching Joan Rivers or Sarah Silverman. The fact Watts said that and didn’t put up a stink probably shows she was cool saying it in the first place. I know I, along with many of my male friends, can be self-deprecating like that. Some of my female friends have said stuff like that as well. If we can’t laugh at ourselves…”
Yup… Another example of people accusing Birdman of certain things it does not being realistic, simply because they themselves have not yet come across those things in life… Like they do with the critic being too evil.
“and how can you not see Keaton’s performance and the film as utterly inseparable accomplishments?”
“Keaton IS Birdman.”
There are no fewer than six other characters just as interesting as Keaton’s in that movie. They all contribute. Keaton does not stand out THAT MUCH to me, and he’s not the best actor in it, either, I would say. Nor does he give the best performance of the movie. I can EASILY separate the movie and Keaton, and evaluate them on their own, while loving both (but the movie more than Keaton’s performance).
“Is there one poster out there who would vote for Birdman for Best Picture who would NOT vote for Keaton for Best Actor??? Just ONE??? If so, let me know why you are not voting for Keaton, yet you love the film. I’m just interested in what that thought process is.”
I just did.
“And how can someone who loved Birdman then mark their ballot for Redmayne in the boring, conventional, Oscar-bait Theory of Everything?”
Just because you don’t like it, it doesn’t mean it’s not good. Can you really not grasp that?
“Voting for Birdman as BP and not for Best Actor would be like voting for Sophie’s Choice for Best Picture but not for Meryl Streep — “Oh yeah, loved Sophie’s Choice, but Streep was just okay in it.” Huh?”
Actually, it’s not, because Streep was better than the movie, in that case. Keaton isn’t better than the movie Birdman. The fact that YOU THINK he’s better doesn’t make it so…
“Birdman 47.05% (343 votes)
Boyhood 43.35% (316 votes)
The Grand Budapest Hotel 4.53% (33 votes)”
AD’s votes on the poll in this thread, when I voted – these are finally looking a lot more like the right percentages. Probably still a few (at least 3-4) percent too much for Boyhood, and too little by the same amount for Birdman, but definitely in the ballpark.
“Well, Claudiu does give credits to Boyhood’s BAFTA, BFCA, ACE, and GG wins, but Birdman has support from the Hollywood business which has a bigger overlap (the critics awards don’t vote and BAFTA is only eight percent of AMPAS whereas DGA/SAG/PGA /WGA is roughly 25-30 percent).”
Absolutely. The overlap is the key here, but it doesn’t completely negate the importance of winning BFCA, GG and BAFTA. Not a lot of movies have lost with that combination either. Also, there’s the possibility that the editing snub actually DOES show lack of support. We can argue why it can’t be proved that it does show that (because of the special situation with Birdman’s editing techniques), but we can’t actually prove the opposite, either – that it DOESN’T show lack of support, because we can’t KNOW why they actually didn’t nominate it. Could be the weird editing thing, or could just be that they didn’t like it. The former seems more likely, but the latter is also very much possible as well. Only an actual nomination could have put this to rest completely. This stat should be taken very much with a grain of salt this year, BUT I don’t think you can ignore it altogether, for the reason I just stated.
Because it didn’t win any of the other 3 (GG, BAFTA, BFCA), Birdman is among the weaker triple-crown winners, right there with The King’s Speech and Apollo 13. We can’t know for sure whether it’s closer in strength to The King’s Speech (which also had BAFTA, and which won the Oscar) or Apollo 13 (which had no director nomination, similarly to Birdman, with its editing nomination, but without an equally good explanation to go along with it, and which lost the Oscar). Of course, Boyhood not winning the WGA brings it closer to The Social Network (it has BAFTA, but no WGA, whereas the latter had the opposite), but it’s still not completely clear whether it’s stronger or weaker.
Most of the evidence, and the stronger evidence, points to Birdman, but there is plenty of pretty strong evidence, albeit less convincing, that points to Boyhood. This is not a done deal. It doesn’t mean it’ll be close in the actual voting. It could be an easy win for either, as far as we know. It just means it likely IS close, as the stats are still rather reasonably split between the two favorites, with the edge for Birdman, stats-wise, being on the thin side, compared to the edge other favorites had in other years.
“Only one film has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Movie Award and the Bafta for both Director and Picture without repeating the win at the Oscar for both Best Picture and Director: Brokeback Mountain”
Exactly. That’s a pretty decent stat too. Not as strong as a 100% stat, which the 4-guild stat is, but far from neglectable. FAR from it.
“It’s one thing to root for the film you love, it’s another to ignore the precursors that matter most.”
Agreed. 🙂 But that doesn’t mean you should ignore the ones that matter less either. They matter LESS, not NOT AT ALL.
“PGA/DGA/SAG trio is a better predictor than BAFTA/GG/CC”
But not THAT MUCH BETTER. 🙂 It’s 100% to, like, 80-90%, or whatever that trio’s percentage is. It’s 30% overlap to 8% overlap in voters, not 100% overlap to 0% overlap. It’s NO EXCEPTIONS to ONE EXCEPTION. If Boyhood wins this year, the two stats instantly have pretty much the same record. Exactly as you put it, Andrew – definitely not a lock, just more likely. Possibly a lot more likely, but nowhere near a safe bet.
“You are not objective, like everyone else. You so want Birdman to win that you can’t accept that other people still believe in Boyhood’s victory. You call them some delusional that can’t accept the futur Birdman’s victory, and How they can dare to vote for Boyhood (like half of the experts on GoldDerby).”
I’m sorry, Missan, but you’ve misread Andrew. He’s anything but not objective.
“I’d say that’s a 100% lock, especially since the alternative is the biggest upset in over 25 years.”
Consider the above, Hawkeye… Birdman has to break some rather old trends to win too – not trends as strong as those Boyhood has to break, but still important ones. Let’s not get carried away! You can INTUITIVELY say Birdman is now a lock, but you can’t really back it up with the stats that it’s 100%, or even close to it. No movie has won without WGA, PGA/DGA/SAG before, but none has been as strong as Boyhood either, in terms of precursors, before. And Birdman is, again, among triple-crown winners, very much on the weakish side. Probably still pretty well above the line needed to be BP-material, but nowhere near as much as most of its triple-crown holding predecessors. Let’s not get completely hung up on ONE stat (NO stat is infallible, this must be clear to all), strong though it may be, and miss the overall picture! 🙂 There are pros and cons, and it’s far from certain that the pros outweigh the cons, as it would seem right now, given the information we have.
Besides, Budapest has the WGA. That one alone, Boyhood aside, makes this far from a lock…
“The fact is, most people tend to look at the stats which support a possible win for their favorites, and ignore those stats which do not support a win.”
Amen!…
“I mean, Birdman lost Best Comedy twice to The Grand Budapest Hotel.”
Yeah, and we all know how often the best comedy gets the Oscar…
“The other thing I have noticed is that Boyhood performs a lot better that Birdman with international Academy members – that could be an important block.”
Interesting… the BAFTA win corroborates this. Does anybody have any (even just approximate) numbers on American vs. international Oscar voters?
“And it’s the first time I’ve seen this split: ”Birdman” for Best Pic; Linklater for Director.”
Happened with at least one critics’ award as well, a lot earlier in the season, of course.
“When Grand Budapest won the Writers Guild it seems to have enough momentum to carry on through to the big night.”
No further comment on this tired subject, obviously…
“Now Sasha, won’t you feel silly writing this if Boyhood does defy the odds by winning Best Picture?”
She will be ECSTATIC…
@Scott
I’d vote for Birdman and Redmayne! 🙂 But then, I don’t equate Keaton with Birdman or vice versa. He was one element of the film, and actually one of the more mundane aspects, in my opinion. And Redmayne, whose movie was pretty much slickly produced garbage, was a revelation. Simple.
“But yea, the list really does go on and on… 😉
– the blend of literal and metaphorical
– afterlife themes
– zoarastrianism
– suicide themes
– social medias impact on entertainment
– narcisissim / ego
– impact of superhero movies on hollywood and its actors
– the role of critics in shaping the perceptions of others
– father daughter relationships
– the struggles people who have fallen from grace face
– impotency”
Apart from “narcissism/ego”, I would hardly think that BM delves into any of these topics with any degree of depth to offer a well rounded discussion or even thoughtful presentation. Like the PTSD aspect of American Sniper, it’s there and then pretty much ignored thematically. And the narcissism/ego aspect of this film is not very flattering to its creators.
WW
I saw the directors’ roundtable which was frustrating because the moderator kept sucking up to Angelina Jolie. He interrupted Linklater to ask a question to Tyldum who, instead of responding to the moderator asked Linklater a question! Nolan and Leigh made their admiration obvious too. Last year, my favorite film (12 Years was second) was Before Midnight. It’s a masterpiece too and has a 94 rating on Metacritic and neither Linklater nor the film were nominated (only the screenplay).
Let’s hope Inarritu’s reputation for being a total Ahole will deprive him of the votes of people who actually know him! Linklater’s an all-around, down-to-earth nice guy, something that – apparently – in Hollywood is less admired than a pretentious jerk playing the diva.
STEVEN KANE
FEBRUARY 16, 2015
“Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?)”
Ailidh, do you really believe there isn’t a woman alive who has ever said something like that? Try watching Joan Rivers or Sarah Silverman. The fact Watts said that and didn’t put up a stink probably shows she was cool saying it in the first place.
Watts has (recently) some good roles under her belt, but at the time she filmed Birdman she was coming off a monumental flop (Diana) and, at her age, can’t afford to alienate a director and his coterie of (Spanish mother tongue I presume) screenwriters. Gee, fellas, sharing a vagina? I think whoever wrote that line is a macho male who doesn’t know anything about women, sexually or otherwise – a problem when creating female characters.
1. I want Academy members to pick the films and performances they ‘like’ best. That’s what this is all about, isn’t it? When we all write up our own personal top-10s, top-20s, top-whatevers for the year, we just list our favourites in order and don’t (or shouldn’t) think about which is ‘more important.’ For instance, in my own personal 2014 list, I have Edge Of Tomorrow at #3. It sure wasn’t the third-most relevant or third-most important, or third-most “Academy-worthy” movie of the year, but damned if I didn’t have an absolute blast watching it. If Academy voters over the years had simply picked the film they enjoyed the most rather than falling into the usual Oscar-bait traps, I reckon the Best Picture list would be a lot stronger.
2. Birdman might be my favourite film of the year, so I’m happy to see it winning. Boyhood is #4 or #5 for me, so while I’d be perfectly happy and pleased to see it win Best Picture as well, Birdman is not a bad choice whatsoever. It’s apples-and-oranges this year….this isn’t a masterpiece losing to only a very good movie (i.e. Social Network losing to King’s Speech) or, even worse, a masterpiece losing to a mediocrity (i.e. Crouching Tiger losing to Gladiator).
3. It’s ridiculous to vote on the basis of “which movie will best stand the test of time” since, unless you have a time machine, how the hell do you know the answer to this question? To use my previous example, many were shocked when Private Ryan lost in 1998 but looking back on it, Shakespeare In Love stands out as the better film. For all we know, Boyhood will (no pun intended) age terribly.
But here is why this year may be the worst year in Oscar history, because a classic, clear as daylight, was released this year and the academy is too stupid or too full of themselves to pick it. To put in caps to make a point: BOYHOOD IS ONE OF THE MOST CRITICALLY ACCLAIMED MOVIES OF ALL TIME. There is no other rightful winner. Boyhood is objectively the best.
Picking Birdman, which has no where near the acclaim outside the industry, is just another black eye on the Academy if it wins, just like picking Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan (or even Thin Red Line, which was just as good).
I would love to see a list of how many “most critically-acclaimed movies of the year” have won Best Picture. I would guess the number is less than 15. Even when one of the all-time classics wins, it’s very possible that classic beat out another, arguably even better classic (i.e. All About Eve over Sunset Blvd is perhaps the best example of this). Also, you’re fighting an uphill battle still claiming that SIL was some kind of unworthy winner over Private Ryan….history has shown that was actually a pretty inspired choice.
@BIRDIENEST81
Yes, there are plenty of films that don’t win the Golden Globe but win Best Picture…just not in the COMEDY category. The last time that’s happened was Annie Hall. The King’s Speech was in the same category as The Social Network. Boyhood and Birdman were not in the same category.
“And every one of those winners since the expansion has ALSO won the Producers Guild award, as well (which BTW has correctly predicted the BP winner slightly longer).”
————————————–
Yep, that’s true. It’s pretty much going to be 100% the televised award shows vs. the guilds this year (even if Birdman won SAG ensemble, Boyhood did pick up an award at SAG, too).
“Also the critics don’t get to actually vote for the Oscars.”
—————————————-
Oh, believe you me, I certainly know that. 😉
Sasha! Thanks for the reply! Sign of respect, Alright alright alriiiight!
But yea, the list really does go on and on… 😉
– the blend of literal and metaphorical
– afterlife themes
– zoarastrianism
– suicide themes
– social medias impact on entertainment
– narcisissim / ego
– impact of superhero movies on hollywood and its actors
– the role of critics in shaping the perceptions of others
– father daughter relationships
– the struggles people who have fallen from grace face
– impotency
Boy, that was fun! Your turn!
So I finally watched ‘Boyhood’ and ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ Good films, both of them. But after further reflection and analysis of each film, I have to give the nod to ‘Birdman.’ I do think that there will be yet another split this year. ‘Birdman’ will take Best Picture, while ‘Boyhood’ takes Best Director. Also, I think if ‘Birdman’ continues its wave of momentum, Michael Keaton might just overtake Eddie Redmayne for Best Actor. I also just changed my pick for Best Sound Editing from ‘American Sniper’ to ‘Birdman’, but I kept Best Sound Mixing in favor of ‘American Sniper.’
The deciding factor for the split for me was the fact that Alejandro G. Iñarritu has swept the Guild Awards, but also the fact that Richard Linklater was able to create a masterful mosaic of the journey from adolescence into adulthood over a 12-year period! This has never been done in the history of film. That’s why I think the Academy will give the Golden Guy to Linklater in this case. Alejandro will take the statue for Best Original Screenplay and as a co-producer for Best Picture. I also think that the third major category (a Best Picture winner always has at least three) is Best Actor. Eddie Redmayne could still win, of course. But does the Academy have enough support for ‘The Theory of Everything’ that they do for ‘Birdman?’ Stranger things have happened. So far, here’s how I see the outcome unfolding:
BEST PICTURE: Birdman
BEST DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater – Boyhood
BEST ACTOR: Michael Keaton – Birdman (Eddie Redmayne is still ahead for now, though)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (no-brainer!)
BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore – Still Alice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (again, no-brainer)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Imitation Game
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Birdman
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: How To Train Your Dragon 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: CitizenFour
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Birdman
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST FILM EDITING: Boyhood
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Glory” – Selma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST SOUND EDITING: Birdman
BEST SOUND MIXING: American Sniper
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Interstellar
Pete proving once again that the Social Network dummy spits have nothing on the Boyhood ones!!
Scott, I get your confusion, which is why I think Keaton is still a chance. Redmayne is the favorite, and is clearly the more Oscar baity performance
At the end of the day, these things will be true
1. Linklater will be fine and will continue to make adventurous films. He’s already got a film in the can for release next year.
2. Inarritu will be fine and will be able to wear that moronic scarf to awards shows playing the auteur. Hopefully he’s not wasting Dicaprio’s time with that natural light shooting method he’s employing on the Revanant.
3. Keaton may or may not be fine, but if he doesn’t win, that was his one chance.
4. Del Toro will be the Depalma of the Three Amigos. Poor guy.
5. Apart from Soderbergh, none of the Indie revolutionaries from the 90’s will have a Best Director statue anytime soon.
6. Clint Eastwood will probably scramble to film, edit, and release a movie about Actors in order to jump on the three best pictures in four years trend.
7. The Oscar broadcast will have terrible ratings, par for the course, and the reactive Academy will come up with some new “fix” that will no doubt make things worse. All the while ignoring how the guild awards make the final telecast utterly irrelevant.
AILIDH, thanks for posting the quotes from Richard Linklater and Christopher Nolan from the Cinema Audio Society gala. It shows what mutual admiration and respect they have for each other’s work. Linklater and Nolan had shared a Directors Roundtable, hosted by the Hollywood Reporter, earlier this season, and Nolan praised Linklater not just for the concept but its execution. Another member of that Roundtable was Mike Leigh, who recently received a Fellowship at BAFTA, and in his speech, he singled out ”Boyhood” as a ”definitive” independent film that Linklater should be ”justly proud” of. And last March, Wes Anderson and ”The Grand Budapest Hotel” were the subject of a panel at SWSX, and the moderator was Linklater, whom Anderson called ”legendary.” It’s great to see that Linklater is held in such great esteem by such notable directors. Too bad that wasn’t reflected in the DGA vote!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aASEpXEIF6M
You do have to give Birdman credit for one thing. It will be a BP winner that manages to buck both the critical consensus as well as box office consensus by losing virtually all the critical precursors as well as performing anemically in terms of ticket sales (only a little more than Boyhood domestically despite being half the length). The last time a box office underachiever that had very best of year critical prizes won BP was Crash. Can anyone really argue with a straight face that Boyhood is as radioactive with blocs of Academy voters as Brokeback Mountain? We’re talking about the same voters that nearly awarded BP to a Martial Arts fantasy that decade.
To put this another way. If Boyhood wasn’t even in the final field, would Birdman really be this level of juggernaut?
TIme flies. I didn’t realize that Miles Teller ALREADY hosted the Academy’s Sci-Tech Awards on Feb. 7.
Oscar.go posted some of his funniest moments with Margot Robbie at the podium.
http://oscar.go.com/blogs/oscar-news/150212-margot-robbie-miles-teller-funniest-sci-tech-award-hosting-moments
“Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?)”
Ailidh, do you really believe there isn’t a woman alive who has ever said something like that? Try watching Joan Rivers or Sarah Silverman. The fact Watts said that and didn’t put up a stink probably shows she was cool saying it in the first place. I know I, along with many of my male friends, can be self-deprecating like that. Some of my female friends have said stuff like that as well. If we can’t laugh at ourselves…
Right now I’m more concerned that Eddie Redmayne may lose to Keaton as part of a Birdman sweep.
“On my list, though: Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Lobster”
The DOGTOOTH guy doing a movie in English with Farrell, Colman, Whishaw, Seydoux and Reilly? Was not aware at all, but thanks, consider it added to mine!
Oops! My mistake!!
Help: By any lucky chance, does anyone know of an English or Spanish translation of Francois Begaudeau’s “La Blessure, la vraie” — it’s being adapted by that WARMEST COLOR guy into a major motion picture and it sounds really really so good and I really really wanna read it, but I’m a dumb American and don’t know French — so if you know about anything I’d appreciate a pointer. Thanks, bye.
The fact that Linklater could go home empty-handed on Sunday night at an event intended to honor the year’s most accomplished cinema is frustrating, to say the least. I very much enjoyed Birdman, but Sasha is right when she remarks that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences can’t seem to pull itself away from a mirror. Boyhood is not an insider’s film in terms of its content, and certainly not in how it was made. Boyhood’s Hollywood connections are tenuous, at best, and that, I think, is the biggest thing it has going against it going into the Oscars. Nevertheless, I think just about everyone has come to realize that the Oscars don’t mean very much in the long run. The list of films that haven’t won Best Picture Oscars is far superior to the list of those that have. All one has to do is take a look at the most recent Sight and Sound Poll, widely regarded as the king of the Best-of-All-Time polls. Vertigo, Citizen Kane, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Searchers, Apocalypse Now, Singin’ in the Rain, Mulholland Drive, Taxi Driver, Psycho, Some Like it Hot, North by Northwest, Rear Window, Raging Bull, Touch of Evil, Sunset Boulevard, Blade Runner, Blue Velvet, Nashville, the list goes on and on and on. In fact, a measly four films among the top 102 won Best Picture Oscars. Needless to say, those that go home empty-handed on Sunday night are in good company. That’s part of the reason why I almost DON’T want Boyhood (or some of the other fine nominees) to win. Best Picture sometimes seems more like a mark of shame. Ideally, I think, Boyhood would win for Director, and then Best Picture would go to some forgettable piece of trash, like The Imitation Game or The Theory of Everything.
“How about an Our Most Anticipated Films of 2015 post, Ryan Adams?”
Was gonna ask the same thing, Bryce, but figured everyone wanted to get thru the 2015 Oscar funeral first 🙂
On my list, though: Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Lobster
@Scott (the other one)
“Ejiofer is a better comparison, but still not entirely apt to me. He was up against the truly towering magnetic performance of DDL as Lincoln.”
No, Ejiofor lost to Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club. Daniel Day-Lewis won the year before.
Scott,
Ejiofor lost to Matthew McConaughey last year. DDL and Lincoln was 2012.
@Birdienest81
You said: @Scott (the other one)
“What I still don’t get is how Birdman can win without also winning Best Actor.”
It’s the same reason why Liam Neeson and Ralph Fiennes lost their categories while Schindler’s List won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Jeremy Renner did not win Best Actor while Hurt Locker won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Chiewetel Ejiofor lost Best Actor while 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.”
I don’t really agree with you. Keaton IS Birdman. The movie is about actors, and an actor making a comeback, and Keaton inhabits this is in a way that seems to me to be utterly central to that film.
Liam Neeson as Schindler is just not in the same category. I don’t remember anyone being particularly dazzled by him in that film. He was good, but he wasn’t “the movie”. He didn’t win any precursor awards. This is very different from the role Keaton has in Birdman, and the accolades he has received. And Fiennes — well, he was supporting, so it’s different.
Same thing with Renner — really, although he was the lead, he was not that well known at the time, won no precursor awards, and is not synonymous with the movie.
Ejiofer is a better comparison, but still not entirely apt to me. He was up against the truly towering magnetic performance of DDL as Lincoln. And as magnetic as Ejiofer was in 12YAS, it doesn’t seem comparable to me to the story of Birdman and the story of Keaton. I guess some people think of Redmayne’s performance as simply undeniable, like DDL’s in Lincoln … but not me.
So I wouldn’t entirely dismiss your comparisons, but I am trying to understand the mindset of a voter who might vote for Birdman for picture and not actor, when the accomplishment of the movie (whatever you think that is, good or bad) is so intertwined with the performance and the cultural position of the central character, whom the movie is about. Maybe Keaton will win Best Actor too — and then my question will be irrelevant. But if he doesn’t, I still don’t get how the film could get the support to win BP and Keaton not get the support for Actor. Of course, weird things happen, so if it happens it happens — just trying to comprehend it.
Is there one poster out there who would vote for Birdman for Best Picture who would NOT vote for Keaton for Best Actor??? Just ONE??? If so, let me know why you are not voting for Keaton, yet you love the film. I’m just interested in what that thought process is.
@Liz
“Also, BAFTA has given Best Picture to all the eventual Best Pictures winners since expansion”
And every one of those winners since the expansion has ALSO won the Producers Guild award, as well (which BTW has correctly predicted the BP winner slightly longer).
“Birdman couldn’t even win the comedy category at either the Globes or Critics’ Choice”
King’s Speech did not won Best Drama either. Also the critics don’t get to actually vote for the Oscars.
In my heart of hearts, I just can’t believe that they would completely ignore Linklater for what he did, and also when he got 3 nominations. So I just can’t not predict him to win something, even if I’ll probably be wrong. I think there’s a good chance there will be a split, and based on the guilds’ love for Birdman, I think it will win Best Picture, but Linklater will win Best Director. I’m not sure if anyone else would agree, but Birdman feels so insular to the industry and will be one of those winners that the general public will be surprised if/when it wins. And it’s just so strange to me that it probably won’t get an acting award even if wins Best Picture. Especially when the acting was lauded. Also, BAFTA has given Best Picture to all the eventual Best Pictures winners since expansion, and Birdman couldn’t even win the comedy category at either the Globes or Critics’ Choice. Just a really bizarre year…
Well I loathe Birdman: its misogyny (“we share a vagina”… what woman in history has ever or would ever say that?), its bitterness, its navel-gazing. If it wins, it will be another example of an imminently forgettable film like Argo and The Artist that only proves the Academy has no points of reference outside of its own little world.
Boyhood is badly served because Linklater has never given a shit about Hollywood. He goes his own quiet way, creating his low-key masterpieces, sticking to Austin.
Christopher Nolan presented Linklater with the CAS filmmaker award and made some pertinent comments about Boyhood and Linklater:
Nolan praised Linklater’s work on “Boyhood,” noting that he admired the honoree’s ability to “trust the inherent drama of what we all live through in families.”
“That takes enormous nerve and it risks your film being overlooked, your work being ignored,” Nolan said. “But he had the courage to do that — to be subtle, to let the drama speak for itself in that simple way — and for that reason I think (‘Boyhood’) is his masterpiece.”
When he took the stage to accept his award, Linklater explained that he and Nolan were “the subject of the same experiment” in which two filmmakers are charged with making the same film.
“Our assignment was to make a film about time itself. Make a film about parents who love their children. Make a film about mortality, and a film about… the big question of what the hell we’re even doing here as humans. And you get ‘Interstellar’ and ‘Boyhood,’” Linklater said. “I think that speaks volumes for what this crazy medium we’re all so lucky to work in can do. We’re just here telling stories that mean a lot to us personally.”
Of course, maybe for the Academy, a film about the bond between children and parents, a film about time itself, isn’t really important – certainly not compared to a film about a washed-up hack actor finally getting a good review. Talk about narcissism.
@Scott (the other one)
“What I still don’t get is how Birdman can win without also winning Best Actor.”
It’s the same reason why Liam Neeson and Ralph Fiennes lost their categories while Schindler’s List won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Jeremy Renner did not win Best Actor while Hurt Locker won Best Picture.
It’s the same reason why Chiewetel Ejiofor lost Best Actor while 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.
Alfredo — I agree with you, but the current thinking is that Birdman will win BP and Director but not Actor. I don’t see how, if you love Birdman and vote for it for Pic and Director, you would not vote for it for Actor. Also, I can see someone wanting to share the love between Birdman and Boyhood, and voting for one for Pic and one for Director, but if you liked Birdman enough to vote for either Pic or Director, I would have thought you’d also vote for Keaton, since Boyhood doesn’t have anyone competing against Keaton.
I’m so done with this Oscar year and barring 3-4 major upsets this weekend, I’m expecting another very boring telecast. Bring on next week and the start of a new Oscar season!
““Birdman” winning, after the much superior blueprint “JCVD” went fully ignored by the Academy, is pretty sad. I mean, it is REALLY sad, that the coward and pretentious american remake of the belgian groundbreaking film, has been so loudly applauded, when the original went mostly unnoticed (except for Iñarritu, of course)”
THIS. Also I’d say Birdman bites big portions of Black Swan as well. And a bit of Noises Off.
Speaking of the Satellites, they seem to have been the only organization that nominated Miles Teller for Best Actor for ”Whiplash.” And that leads me to this question: J.K. Simmons has picked up every Best Supporting Actor nomination and win that I can think of, but why hasn’t the phenomenal Teller registered in ANY of the Best Actor races (aside from the Satellites). Yes, I know the Best Actor field is very competitive. But for my money, I thought Teller was the real revelation in ”Whiplash” (not Simmons), and that Teller even outshone some of the other Best Actor contenders, like Steve Carell in ”Foxcatcher.” … Interesting, but I see Teller is co-hosting the Academy’s Sci-Tech Awards. Glad to see that someone at the Academy didn’t overlook him.
But I’m rooting for Keaton also.
@Scott
I agree in most part of what you say except that I like a lot Birdman and I would be very happy if it wins but according to that logic about Picture and Actor then we can also say “and how does the film can win and not the director, he has the vision, or how the director can win and not the screenplay”. I think that the cool thing is that the awards can be given to different films in different categories.
”Satellite Award winners (the usual suspects)”
Wow, I didn’t think anyone followed the Satellites. Do any celebrities attend? … To me, some of these winners are NOT ”the usual suspects”: Dan Gilroy’s ”Nightcrawler” for Original Screeplay (yay!); ”Song of the Sea” for Animated Movie; ”Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” for Editing; ”Virunga’s” ”We Will Not Go” for Original Song. And it’s the first time I’ve seen this split: ”Birdman” for Best Pic; Linklater for Director.
If anyone’s curious, here’s a link to the complete list of Satellite nominees:
http://www.thewrap.com/birdman-leads-satellite-awards-nominations/
Sasha — I’m surprised you are so upset by the prospect of Boyhood losing to Birdman. I get that you think Boyhood is a masterpiece, but you say that Birdman is “very very good”. So this is not like when The Social Network, also a masterpiece (and I agree there), lost to a bland piece of entertainment, The King’s Speech, which was anchored by a fine performance by Colin Firth.
I hated Birdman, and I liked Boyhood a lot, but I won’t be devastated if Birdman wins BP, because I recognize that, although it was not my kind of thing, it was on some levels a challenging, original, and quirky film, and the manifestation of a unique (if irritating) vision by the director, writer and actors. It is not like The King’s Speech winning over TSN. Or Forrest Gump winning over … any other movie made in the history of film.
What I still don’t get is how Birdman can win without also winning Best Actor. The only explanation I have been offered is Claudiu saying “well, Redmayne just gave a better performance”. But if you LOVE Birdman, how can you not also love Keaton in it, and how can you not see Keaton’s performance and the film as utterly inseparable accomplishments? As I say I didn’t like Birdman or Keaton in it, but surely Keaton’s performance is completely of a piece with, and consistent with, and wholly informed by and realized within, the movie itself, so if you loved one, you loved the other. And how can someone who loved Birdman then mark their ballot for Redmayne in the boring, conventional, Oscar-bait Theory of Everything? It seems so schizoid to me. Voting for Birdman as BP and not for Best Actor would be like voting for Sophie’s Choice for Best Picture but not for Meryl Streep — “Oh yeah, loved Sophie’s Choice, but Streep was just okay in it.” Huh?
Unless I’m wrong and the script was very easy to write.
Daveylow, I don’t think it’s fair to compare how many writers Birdman had to how many GBH had. I thought there were a few flaws to Birdman’s writing but otherwise I thought it was one of the strongest aspects of the entire film. Plus this screenplay needed careful guidance more than any other. Writing a script with a one-take camera shot in mind must be hell to write. There can’t be traditional scene breaks or passages of time or “insert something here” to fill in for improvisation. To me the entire team must’ve scoped out the theater, studied every corner of the place, then come up with a rough outline and then wrote the script. Scripts are great blueprints for a movie, this blueprint had to be the most careful blueprint written.
Hasn’t it always been about what they like best? Isn’t this the reason the watchers rail against the Academy every year? Be happy that the consensus (I still am not truly convinced it’s consensus on a broad scale, especially not for BD) is for a film that, as you say, is “very, very good”.
Hey, at least 12 Years won last year, right? And Mad Max winning EVERYTHING next year incl. Best Foreign Film, so its all good. Every other year good results, ya know
Paul, have you seen how realistic the apes are in that film? Interstellar’s VFX are great but I’ve never completely understood Nolan’s rejection of CGI. It’s a sci-fi drama, goddamnit, using CGI isn’t a crime.
Pete, that would be terrible should the Picture’s quality be consistent with BLOOD AND HONEY and UNBROKEN. Let’s hope we’re spared early on of that circus. Now, Linklater’s THAT’S WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT doesn’t seem at all awards friendly, but have you seen that cast? Megan Ellison is producing. Stoked doesn’t begin to cover it.
I’m to the point of saying anything BUT Boyhood. Personally, I’m a Grand Budapest fan because the film brought me pure joy, but Birdman is right there for me. @philofilms
So I’m curious about something, and Sasha I’d love your input on this as well.
With the industry clearly in love with Birdman (it sweeping up seven guild wins), do you think it’s realistic that Keaton could still win?
Yes, and the reasoning behind their choices is often ridiculous and sad. But well, that’s how the Oscars are voted.
@Zooey
THR does its ballots after voting has closed so perhaps as early as tomorrow Scott will start rolling them out. Usually makes for grim reading when voters admit to not having seen all nominees.
Bryce,
Jolie/Pitt’s To the Sea is the leader out of the gate. It’s like Linklater’s Before Midnight (couple’s marriage busting up on a European vacation), but starring major A-List actors who certainly AREN’T Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy.
Boy oh boy.
How about an Our Most Anticipated Films of 2015 post, Ryan Adams?
I think we’re in need of a break here. You know, to make it through the week and be done with it.
I come to Awards Daily not just for Sasha Stone’s Oscar predictions, but for her passion and perspective, for her insights and intelligence. I find her writing thoughtful and thought-provoking. She has the courage of her convictions and will take a stand, whether or not it’s backed by statistics or conventional wisdom. Obviously, if you don’t like Sasha’s commentaries, skip them. No one’s obligated to read them. Just enjoy the ”nice discourse” in the comments section. But I, for one, appreciate how Sasha champions the cause of women and more diversity, and aims to see the bigger picture behind the Oscar race.
And In what universe is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes’ VFX better than Interstellar’s?
@ Antoinette,
maybe being a young person taking a M.F.A. in theatre directing (following a drama school acting class) is what made me dislike Birdman so much. Rarely have I seen a film that’s so ignorant about the world it portrays. LOL
I wanted to ask something.. What happened to the Hollywood Reporter Oscar voter ballots? They did 8 ballots last year and nothing this year.
Satellite Award winners (the usual suspects):
Best Film: Birdman
Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Supporting Actor: J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Original Screenplay: Nightcrawler
Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Animated Movie: Song of the Sea
Foreign Language Film: Tangerines (Estonia)
Documentary: Citizenfour
Original Song: We Will Not Go, Virunga
Original Score: Birdman
Cinematography: Mr. Turner
Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Art Direction/Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Editing: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Sound (Editing/Mixing): Whiplash
Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ensemble: Into the Woods
If Budapest doesn’t win Original Screenplay over Birdman I’ll eat my Lobby Boy hat. Birdman needed four people to write a screenplay whose flaws are hidden by the fine direction, acting and cinematography. The writing was the weakest part.
Danem…I forgot about that. Birdman’s “biting” satire of the industry is as potent as Ron Howard had made the Player
I wonder if anyone has noticed the similarities between Jolie/Pitt’s upcoming To the Sea and Linklater’s wildly snubbed Before Midnight (the Boyhood shutout doesn’t look so unfathomable if you see how little traction THAT film got with Oscar). Calling that as the favorite next year for the “speaks to me” crowd.
The familiarness of it is part of its charm, but what really appealed to me was the rhythm, the warmth of the film that dwells into sentimentality only once in more than two hours. I love how subtle yet visually specific it is and how it both creates the sense of time encapsulated, time stopping and giving you the opportunity to take a good look at yourself for two hours; but at the same time – and I love this about the film and this particular achievement makes the gimmick claims superficial – it is a film that gave me the sense of time passing and people changing….
I spent two hours and a half with somebody who isn’t extraordinary at all. And his life isn’t extraordinary, either. Critics could have considered that a big fuck you to Aristotle, but when I look back, all I see is that tribute to a generation on the brink of losing that connection to timelessness and getting stuck in time. And yes, it just happens.
I actually completely agree that this is what BOYHOOD is. But that’s why I don’t think it’s the Best Picture of this or any year. It would also make it that BOYHOOD is actually for people who want to see themselves, much like BIRDMAN is accused of being a film the Academy will like because it’s about themselves. I guess it all depends on who you are and if you want to see movies about yourself. I must be a god or a superhero or an astronaut deep down. lol
@Alfredo
I know. I just got a little carried away. 😉 Besides, there are a lot of people here who could use the education.
Pete – I think Fincher is getting ready to be that guy. Read up on his Strangers on Train [Plane] remake synopsis,
Just throwing this out there but clearly we aren’t seeing a preference for Birdman over Boyhood, but an outright hostility TOWARDS Boyhood (as Sasha fleshed out in her other post). Anyone get the feeling that Emma Stone pulls the upset on Sunday because apparently Boyhood’s mere existence is simply unacceptable to this bloc?
God, we need Robert Altman back, or someone like him to knock these people down a few pegs.
@STEVEN KANE
I have put money on Whiplash at 100-1. And Cooper at 50-1. And Wild Tales at 12-1.
Steven Kane – Here is the exact quote from Detour Films (Linklater’s production company):
“Paramount is handling the initial DVD/bluray release for Boyhood. The Criterion release will come later. It is not yet being produced and the release date is unknown.”
It’s coming. I didn’t say it would be soon. My best guess is it’s 1-2 years away but I will own it on day one.
Antoinette, Whiplash is probably my favorite in the race while the actual best is still to be determined by me. If I had to pick a long shot that could actually win it’d be Whiplash. It’s very rare for a movie to completely and utterly hold my attention in a ball of tension from first frame to last. It could win 1 Oscar or all 5, though in reality 3 is the most it’ll probably take (supporting actor is a lock, editing is very strong and sound mixing has a decent shot).
DaneM, is that Criterion Collection thing a rumor or is it actually happening?
“I’m picking Whiplash for number one, Selma for number two and Birdman for number three,” he said.
If I was betting actual money, meaning wanting to make more money, I’d put it on the long shot, WHIPLASH. A lot of people here have said it was their favorite and on the Bafta red carpet they were asking British types what they’re favorite film was and people kept saying WHIPLASH. It was really unexpected to me. But that’s what I’d do if I was betting money. You need number ones right? Well what if all the BIRDMAN and BOYHOOD voters have WHIPLASH at number two instead of the other co-lead and in the first round WHIPLASH has enough number ones to make it to the second round?
I agree that Boyhood and Linklater SHOULD win but that they WON’T win. However, I strongly disagree that this will be one of the worst years of Oscar watching on record (unless American Sniper wins BP). Birdman is, at minimum, twice the movie that Crash, Shakespeare in Love and The King’s Speech are. It is unique and memorable and very well-made. It just isn’t quite the revelation that Boyhood is. Birdman is not a traditional movie, but the way the plot unfolds and the way the scenes take place is definitely more traditional (and thus probably more palpable for AMPAS) than what occurs in Boyhood.
The real prize here is that Boyhood is going to eventually receive an elaborate release from the Criterion Collection. And that makes for much more cinematic immortality than a silly gold statue. PS – I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boyhood pop up in the next AFI Top 100 list (although it may be too new), and that’s another prize that’s better than Best Picture.
@Sasha
I’ve been reading Awards Daily for a few years now and it seems like it’s always the same story. You have a clear favorite. This year is Boyhood, last year it was 12 years, some years ago it was The Social Network and so on. And each year you have an “enemy”: the movie with the most chances to win the Oscar for Best Picture that is not your favorite. And then you fall into this pattern of bashing the “enemy”. You start creating arguments of how the “enemy” only wins awards because of how it appeals to a certain crowd and not because it has merits. You over simplify it: it’s the “anti-comic book movies” movie, it’s the “give a Mexican director the Oscar” movie, it’s the “feel good” movie. You actually start writing more about how the “enemy” does not deserve to win an Oscar than about how your favorite deserves to win. In some blog posts you can even feel your hate.
I mean how else can you write such things about Birdman. I’m not saying that you should consider the best movie of the year. But, honestly, you give it such few credit that one would start believing it’s not even worthy of being in the race. And that’s just wrong. Moreover, you’re not even consistent in your opinions. In late 2013 you had lots of good things to say about Gravity, but once it was clear that the race was gonna be about 12 years vs Gravity your blog posts and tweets at the beginning of 2014 became overly critical of Gravity to the point of contradicting your earlier posts.
The issue with this is that your arguments, being so biased and hate driven, become irrelevant. You actually start behaving exactly like the people you say you despise in the race: you start campaigning for a movie by bashing the main competitor. I’m sorry, but it’s just wrong.
Many of us here are trying to predict who will win the Oscars. Well I for once predict something else: I predict that you will write the same anti-Birdman posts till the ceremony night and after. I predict that next year you will pick a favorite and an enemy and you will do the exact same thing. And I predict that you will not be able too see the qualities of a movie because you hate the fact that it can beat your favorite.
When I first started reading your posts I thought that you were an oscarologist that writes about who she thinks will win the Best Picture but then I noticed how many blog posts discussed whether a movie is good or bad. So I thought the blog is about film reviews first and about who wins the Oscars second. However, when your posts started to fell into “the hate this one love the other” pattern I realized it’s not about film reviews or about predicting the Oscar. It’s actually about who Sasha Stone thinks should not win the Oscars. This is 90% of your posts during the race.
But then you have people here in the comments section that have a nice discourse. They’re the reason that I visit this site. Most blogs have a “troll” that only posts hate comments and lowers the quality of the discussion but it seems to me that this is a blog where the posts are written by the troll and it is the commentators that elevate the discourse.
I hope you are able to change this negative pattern and start giving people more of your thoughts and less of your feelings. And just o be clear, I’m not saying to have 0 feelings I’m just saying give us food for the thought and not just overly biased opinions.
“I’m ready to dub this year among the worst years of Oscar watching I have personally ever had. ”
Have to agree, Sasha. Although it’s rare that my personal favourite gets even a BP nom, it’s even more rare that so many categories seem to be missing what I thought was the best. Now it smells like the best film of the surviving nominees may bite the dust and that makes for a really uninteresting contest, personally.
Maybe it’s a phase or maybe the moon. Maybe it’s hormones – could I have finally outgrown the excitement of watching this industry circle jerk?
Still love my movies, but totally fatigued with this year’s awards.
I just want Keaton to win. That’s all I ask for.
Indeed a disconsolate piece. And this is a compliment. I think.
“You want to win an Oscar? Make a movie about show people. Make it funny. Make it sexy. Make them look really really good — or if not good, at least noble. They are fighting the good fight, standing up for true art and all of that. ”
Right on, Sasha!
Onthe other hand, it’s too bad this was’t the trend in 1953, or else “Singin’ in the rain” would have swept! I will never get over the fact that one of my all time favorites didn’t win a single Oscar.
As for now, I’m still hoping for an upset: go Grand Budapest Hotel!
If you take away the one-shot from Birdman, it’s nothing but a nutjob who has a flying alter-ego dressed as a bird man who speaks venom. If we want to belittle each of these films, we can go on for as long as you care.
Thankfully, I’m in the comfortable position as a fan of both films. I only happen to think Boyhood is a masterpiece AND a classic. It’s only the Academy’s loss to not reward it.
Also, I think that reduce the love for Boyhood to the 12 years project is not the right thing. I was moved like never before when I first saw the Movie in July and I didn’t know this behind the scene thing, neither the critically acclaim.
It’s strue that it’s not a Movie that is easy to love. A lot of people hate it for the fact that, for them, “nothing happens”. But for me, on the contrary, it is all that is happening in this Movie : it is Life, depicted in a simple but powerfull way.
That’s Why I like these little indies, they are always so simple but so powerfull for depicting Life. I don’t Go to the cinema to see a divertissement but to be moved.
“But, what Boyhood lacks in TECHNICAL beauty, it make up for in its power to move some people’s souls—I didn’t find this movie boring at all—. And that factor cannot be underestimated.”
Beautifully said.
Also, I th
@Sasha
I’ve just read your review of Birdman again and you seem to like it. Do you now hate it and call it a “one-shot gimmick” only because it could win over Boyhood?
I still think it’ll be a split between Best pic and Best Director. But I won’t cry or lose any sleep whatever the outcome is.
I didn’t like Boyhood. As I said before, why should we award a film for the “journey” as to how it was made, or the vision behind it? We judge the films based on the final product. And when you look at the final product without the background story behind it, Boyhood is nothing special.
Birdman isn’t my favorite film of the year, but my favorites weren’t even nominated so of the 8 nominees, it would be my pick for Best Picture too.
I still think boyhood will win and be rather anticlimactic to my non-oscar watch following family and friends that only saw the Globes and don’t want a repeat.
I am okay with either Birdman or Boyhood, but the best night ever would be if somehow the votes on those 2 cancelled each other out and it’s Whiplash that wins in a shock.
(Though I assume if anything not beginning with “B” was to win it’d probably be Grand Budapest.)
The fact is, most people tend to look at the stats which support a possible win for their favorites, and ignore those stats which do not support a win.
Last year, 12 Years a Slave was in a better position than Boyhood is now. 12 Years won the PGA award (in a tie with Gravity). This year, Boyhood didn’t win the PGA award. Last year, 12 Years was ineligible for the WGA award. This year, Boyhood was eligible and didn’t even win in a category where its arguably biggest competition (Birdman) was ineligible. I could go on and on.
The various guilds had plenty of chances to award Boyhood, and yet they didn’t. Surely that is a glaring sign.
@JS
I was being sarcastic 🙂
“The one-shot camera trick is not the only thing that makes Birdman unique. There’s also the diegetic drum score. The showcasing of theater and cinema performances. The list really goes on and on.” No, I think that about covers it.
I love your writing and passion Sasha – however, this is one of those unique years for me where I’m okay with either film winning Best Director or Picture. And truthfully, I’m just glad there is going to be a little unpredictability in the show. I hate the years when it’s all sewn up and the show is just about the show. This time, the anticipation for Actor, Director and Picture are going to have me sweating and fanning myself. Exciting stuff.
These 2 films couldn’t be more different but they have their own merits. To love one shouldn’t result in ignoring the accomplishments of the other.
I’m from Asian, never grew up in US and never been a boy or a parent. So I’m sorry to say that Boyhood didn’t connect with me. There were some heartfelt dialogue but I didn’t feel anything special for Mason or his sister. There was no climax and the movie was far too long. It felt like a documentary of mostly mundane events strung together, except for the bit where Mason’s mom was hurt by the stepdad and she went back to save them and she couldn’t answer her kids’ questions. But I appreciated the portrayal of the parents more, especially how the struggles of the mom contrasted with how nonchalant but also helpless the dad was. Perhaps it ought to be called Parenthood instead.
Birdman, though not my fave movie last year intrigued me more. It made me question what was entertainment vs art, and how we consume them. The one shot was a gimmick but it was wonderfully shot. It did feel heavy handed at times.
*than those who think
I’m not an Oscarologyst at all, but I see this race a little different than those that think that the industry’s embracing of Birdman is a narcissist choice. And I don’t dismiss that theory at all—that may be the reason why Birdman is dominating the guilds over most of the other movies—, but I also think that Boyhood’s lack of success with the guilds has a logical an simple explanation.
I mean, Boyhood doesn’t excel for its technical achievements, Birdman is a better film in that respect. We all know that Boyhood is not your typical everyday movie. It’s small in scale and scope. The “12 years in the making” factor not only has implications in terms of its storytelling, but also in logistical and technical terms. I think this was Boyhood’s weakness at the guilds. How do they judge a movie so different from what they have done so far?
But, what Boyhood lacks in TECHNICAL beauty, it make up for in its power to move some people’s souls—I didn’t find this movie boring at all—. And that factor cannot be underestimated.
Please, Alfredo, let’s not take the Critics Choice Awards as some arbiter of quality. They are a bigger sham than the Golden Globes, and their supreme hubris was revealed when they decided to call their award show the “critics choice”, as if they represent real film critics and aren’t just the BFCA, a body of no-name idiots (though some exceptions exist, surely) who like to predict the Oscars. The real reason they shouldn’t be taken seriously: They voted for Gladiator.
Sasha, you’re right that Birdman rests on a gimmick too (and I think the script not nearly as interesting as it could have been), but to me it’s still a far better movie than Boyhood, which is not an impressive watch even with the 12 year angle. Imagine what 70s Coppola could have done with Linklater’s method and you’ll see how uninspired and mundane Boyhood is. I’d have been fine with Before Sunrise or Before Sunset garnering Linklater this acclaim, but not a middling drama shockingly overrated because he took his time filming it.
This year’s nominees.
The truly great films: Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma
The very good film: The Imitation Game
The interesting failures or just average: Birdman, Whiplash, The Theory of Everything
The fascist, xenophobic, propaganda crap: American Sniper.
“Birdman” winning, after the much superior blueprint “JCVD” went fully ignored by the Academy, is pretty sad. I mean, it is REALLY sad, that the coward and pretentious american remake of the belgian groundbreaking film, has been so loudly applauded, when the original went mostly unnoticed (except for Iñarritu, of course)
Oh please…Boyhood is so overrated. Yes, it’s a lovely movie with nice dialogues but it’s not even close Linklater’s best work…I respect him for his idea but what matters it’s the final result…I just don’t get the idea that Birdman will not stand the test of time, well by that idea The Hurt Locker didn’t deserved to win because Avatar or Inglorious Basterds are more recognized in these days…Birdman is ambitious as Boyhood and i truly hope that the Academy will give Birdman the victory because years ago these kind of movies were stupidly robbed! And actually, my favorite movie of the year was Whiplash, i mean…i never had such an amazing experience! But i know, that’s not going to happen so i’m rooting for Birdman because honestly the other movies were just…normal. I think that will be a split with Birdman winning BP and Linklater winning Best Director. Oh, and stop with Metacritic and RT…that it’s just a small group of persons, the Academy is thousands!
I accept the argument that boyhood required a higher degree of commitment and sacrifice (12 years is after all quite a lifetime). In that sense, Boyhood deserves extra points for difficulty. We can also agree that it is a directing accomplishment from a “behind the screen” perspective. I will not make the case for Boyhood. Thousands of words have been provided these past months. And I agree with most of it.
However, if you discuss the movie with people that don’t like it some arguments do make some sense even if I don’t see it as an issue. For example the pacing, the lack of coerence throughout the narrative and the screenplay, the redundance of themes already depicted by Richard Linklater in previous movies (more than one). I do accept one argument. It lacks cinematic sheen. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which in a way also focuses on the passage of time had less thematic shifts than Boyhood but its cinematic beauty and power knocks Boyhood out of the park! That is Boyhoods main difficulty. Ultimately you could see it on tv at home with hot chocolate. Great way to spend a rainy afternoon by the way. But would you repeat your boyhood cinematic experience buying a second and third tickets at the theatre? I didn´t! Would you share a second viewing of the movie with friends. I didn’t. And I think that your average person wouldn’t.
This is where Birdman comes in. The cinematic sheen comes off screaming whether you like it or not! And it sells the execution much better. The Performances, The ScreenPlay Soundbites, The Use of Character Stereotypes to Express Conceptual views of culture and art; The Smooth Editing, The Colorful Photography dances in your eyes, Some shots even pay hommage to Hitchcock. And the movies has so much detail. Falling comet (success) vs dead whale (failure/insignificance) metaphor. Even the beginning of the film gives you a beautiful clue when AMOR is written diagonally on the screen (AMOR=LOVE). The three symbolic deaths representing Riggans three biggest needs/fears (1= fear of doing something out of his league) (2= fear of public response) (3= fear of never being accepted and loved as a father which brings us to the beginning of the movie AMOR). YOU HAVE TO BE WILLING TO LEARN THE GRAMMAR OF THE MOVIE IF YOU WANT TO INTERPRET IT! Even the Choice of Classical Music (Note the Romantic Composers Rachmaninov, Mahler and Tchaikovsky) during the symbolic deaths is a stroke of genius from Antonio Sanchez. In short, as a cinematic experience (and movies need this, the business needs this!). The 5 minutes superhero spectacular with the in your face monologue just to make sure Michael Bay fans who mistook Birdman for an avenger sequel get some solace. Sweet!
Birdman delivers and it is easy to see that Birdman is a directing accomplishment from a “on the screen” perspective.
Both Birdman and Boyhood have lovers and haters. It is a question of personal opinion. If I justified my favourite movies of all time simply on awards bestowed upon them all my favourite movies would be considered a piece of shit (2001 A Space Odyssey, There Will Bo Blood, Psycho)! Therefore I refuse to justify my arguments on awards. So let us please discuss the content not the contempt!
Last but not least, we are not discussing the Oscar for Best Picture. The Preferential Ballot acknowledges broad support which means that unless the winner prevails in the first round of counting it will always depend on number 2 and 3 voting slots. And since the Academy doesn’t give away the actual voting numbers, the whole debate is futile.
In what concerns Mr Oscar, I wish there were a split because we can not afford to see great movies go unrewarded. Even if it means that Linklater should only receive best Director.
If you put aside the argument of the “12 years” vs the “single shot” thing, “Boyhood” is essentially boring. There’s no hero, no villain and no payoff. There’s no one to root for. Yes, it’s a slice of life but essentially “Who cares?”. “Birdman” is at least funny and lets Hollywood poke fun at itself.
While I appreciate that certainly Birdman has had a large push towards the end, I am always cautious when Academy Members say ‘X is voting for Y’ – my own research tends to point towards Academy members almost attempting to create momentum by going ‘everyone is voting X’ when in fact it is not the case.
My honest view from talking to around 40 Academy members now is that Best Picture is divided. 14 were voting for Boyhood, 8 were voting for Birdman and the others had various other films in their number 1 position and hadn’t decided how they would rank the films. Of the 14 a large number had already voted by the time of the DGA Awards so it might be interesting to look after the Oscars as to whether they would have changed their vote. The other thing I have noticed is that Boyhood performs a lot better that Birdman with international Academy members – that could be an important block.
Lets remember at this point last year even Sasha was saying Gravity would ‘probably’ win Picture as it had won the DGA, PGA, MPSE, CSA, ASC and VES – It was clear that the guilds were behind it yet the momentum from GG’s, Critics and BAFTAs pushed 12 Years over the line.
@Brimes: Don’t you dare! Every episode of Parenthood is more moving and better acted than Boyhood. And the children age better..
We should follow the Critics Choice Award then, not the Oscars.
The funny thing is that if the industry voted for Boyhood and the critics for Birdman, the the critics would be wrong.
Sasha writes: “And with that, I’m ready to dub this year among the worst years of Oscar watching I have personally ever had.” and I am fairly certain she has been saying this repeatedly every year…. Either the race is getting worse (possible) or she is really getting tired of the same shit (more likely)
She falls in love with a movie, blames the Academy for falling in love with another, loses hope and has similar disconcerting thoughts about the race.
Don’t get me wrong, I love her site and her essays, but I also think this is her not-so-subtle strategy to push her favorite to sway some last minute votes. Both Boyhood and Birdman are amazing movies, both unusual choice for the Academy and both the right choice. And Sasha, should not give up on the Academy. As she had it on her site before ” The Trick is not minding”
What I meant is that critics had the opportunity to reward Birdman but they went for The Grand Budapest Hotel. The category fraud is a non-issue to me, they nominated it in that category, and in my opinion Birdman is a comedy, albeit bizarre and technically opulent. I’ve never seen so much division.
Even the famous The King’s Speech/The Social Network case made more sense than this. At least, that one was a race between an Oscar-friendly dramedy and a bleak, cynical contemporary drama, so in hindsight it’s not that surprising after all.
***satisfying***
Stone has become the harshest Birdman hater on the web. More than Devin Faraci who called it “a movie full of shit”. She deeply hates the movie and she deeply hates the director (guilty of not being an American and of not loving superhero movies, which real Americans must be proud of, I guess.) I love the Oscar race because force people to show who they really are.
I still fear Boyhood will win in the end. But if they’ll go for Birdman instead, it will be my most satysfying Oscar winner ever.
I agree with those who say that either Boyhood or Birdman winning would be fantastic because both are critically-lauded ATYPICAL Oscar fare.
But Im getting pretty tired of this BUT IT WON’T STAND THE TEST OF TIME!!!!! talk. They’re only voting for what they like best!!!! Etc.
Guess what, is One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest a great film with great direction and great acting and great writing and great editing and memorable and a celebrated Best Pcture winner? Yes. Does it stand the test of time? Not against Jaws, Which also also came out that year.
Thats just one example. I mean, how would people think if There Will Be Blood won on Oscar night instead of No Country for Old Men? Would that have been a travesty? I believe that most voters vote for what they believe is “best”, not always/necessarily what they love the most. And sometimes, the two go hand in hand. I believe that could be happening this year. But yeah, I don’t believe that the movie that STANDS THE TEST OF TIME has to be the “best” film of the year.
Roberto the two comedy losses are curious. I would regard Birdman as less a comedy than Budapest, and it’s not head to head loss to Boyhood.
In terms of major head to head we have:
Birdman PGA/DGA/SAG v Boyhood BFCA/BAFTA
I still haven’t heard anyone make an argument that it’s better to have the BFCA/BAFTA than PGA/DGA/SAG
Boyhood is not out of the race, it’s gone from hot favorite to underdog
Neither Boyhood nor Birdman would be in the top 4 of my ballot. Boyhood is not awards worthy to me, nor a classic.
That said, the choice of Birdman is so incestuous, inside baseball, wreaking of “whining old white male industry folks” who love nothing but their own non-important selves that it makes me nauseous.
Birdman’s win will mark a rarely precedented split of opinions between the press and the industry. I mean, Birdman lost Best Comedy twice to The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Has this ever happened? Crash of course comes to mind, but it competed directly against Brokeback Mountain.
Imagine if the front runners were Boyhood, Selma and Pride……. hero mother, hero African Americans, hero gays and lesbians and hero union workers.
It’ what you do with power that shows your actual values.
We see the same thing here, “I liked Birdman best!” What in the world does that have to do with anything?
Also I’m not Sasha, I can have another opinion. I see the + for Birdman but I believe that in the end, the Academy Will Go for the consensus choice. It’s not a tupical BP winner, Boyhood neither, but maybe it’s less divisive. And Birdman’s support outside of the industry is too weak I think.
Of course I Could be wrong and I understand those who are predicting Birdman. But I think Boyhood is more likely personally.
Well, we Will see. But this race is crazy
FEBRUARY 16, 2015
But Why so Much people are predicting Boyhood ? Andrew doesn’t understand ! Poor him. It’s not possible, that’s just bias people. Me a lover of Birdman is the objective one. Stop people, I can’t stand it
But Why so Much people are predicting Boyhood ? Andrew don’t understand ! Poor him. It’s not possible, that’s just bias people. Me a lover of Birdman are the objective one. Stop people, I can’t stand it
“Missan, stop embarrassing yourself, seriously.
Listen to what Sasha is saying. Read her post carefully. She thinks Birdman will win but can’t in her heart change her prediction for Boyhood.
Argue on the heart OK. On the stats, you just look foolish.”
A lot of experts are predicting Boyhood. But don’t be sad. I hope for you Birdman is winning next sunday un less you Will look really ridiculous, since you are say they are not good stats to Go for it.
I’ve already lost faith in the Academy. I guess the period of The Departed, No Country For Old Men, The Hurt Locker was just a phase for them and they went back to picking the wrong movies pretty quickly. What happened?
Birdman isn’t a bad film. It’s worse than that – it’s a dishonest click-click-click of a movie. And while I enjoyed its ambition (to a degree), it remains a film that I can’t really connect with. Maybe because it’s all about quotes and quoting and it doesn’t bring anything unique to the table. This is a film without a point of view, even though it brags that it has one. Even its most bizarre moments feel like self-conscious logical solutions. And it makes me think of what Trepvel says of Trigorin in The Seagull.. it’s neat and could even be considered smart and witty and stuff, but it really isn’t. If compared to something truly daring (Brazil, Terry Gilliam and Lynch and some Altman, off the top of my head) it just feels like adolescent arrogance. And I still laugh at that monologue about the plane and George Clooney and Keaton fearing he’ll be the Fawcett to Clooney’s Michael Jackson. I mean, has anybody listened to Tracey Ullman’s AFI tribute to Meryl Streep.. It has a B story that’s pretty much the same. Quotes, quotes, quotes that pretend to be something else..
Boyhood on the other hand is a film I saw at least ten-twelve times and I love so many things about it. It’s not just me being part of the same generation as Mason and Samantha. It’s not just about me going through an early life that was quite different, but marked by the same sense of cultural surroundings. I’ve already written that I consider the film an artifact of sorts, even though Mason grew up in America and was the child of divorced parents, while I grew up in Europe and my parents were pretty happy together. People have written that Boyhood appeals to people of Mason and Samantha’s generation or their parents’ generation, but I disagree. The familiarness of it is part of its charm, but what really appealed to me was the rhythm, the warmth of the film that dwells into sentimentality only once in more than two hours. I love how subtle yet visually specific it is and how it both creates the sense of time encapsulated, time stopping and giving you the opportunity to take a good look at yourself for two hours; but at the same time – and I love this about the film and this particular achievement makes the gimmick claims superficial – it is a film that gave me the sense of time passing and people changing. You grow up, look around yourself and you think: I feel as if childhood happened in another life. I don’t feel the same person. I don’t feel I even knew the person I was and this is alright, I don’t feel guilty, I just feel like breaking out of all the patterns and trying to figure myself out, this time on my own and without guidance. And of course, there is Patricia Arquette’s take.. Because I doubt there is a grandmother out there who doesn’t say: Enjoy your youth because it just flies by and you just feel as it had to be something and the promise was there and somebody just stole that from you, time stole that from you and while you thought you had time, at some point you come to realize that the sense of time is shrinking and you just get on your own wave and well, you enjoy it while it lasts. That’s pretty much linked with Mason’s realization of time happening to you. Time is kind to you until it isn’t and the whole trip in the wilderness is a very good ending of a period that’s guarded and safe in a way, a period of time being kind to you. And yes, time is obviously part of Linklater’s creative DNA.
Of course, Boyhood is a breath of fresh air, because I spent two hours and a half with somebody who isn’t extraordinary at all. And his life isn’t extraordinary, either. Critics could have considered that a big fuck you to Aristotle, but when I look back, all I see is that tribute to a generation on the brink of losing that connection to timelessness and getting stuck in time. And yes, it just happens.
Missan, stop embarrassing yourself, seriously.
Listen to what Sasha is saying. Read her post carefully. She thinks Birdman will win but can’t in her heart change her prediction for Boyhood.
Argue on the heart OK. On the stats, you just look foolish.
“Birdman is in a much better position than Gravity !!
Gravity had a genre disadvantage – had no screenplay nod. It lacked a SAG ensemble nomination and 12 Years a Slave had won the PGA.
Birdman is a movie about the industry – has screenplay and THREE acting nods. It won SAG ensemble and Boyhood failed to win and major guild.”
Birdman doesn’t have an editing nod, and a Movie without this hasn’t win since 30 years.
Boyhood has SAG (Patricia Arquette) and Eddie.
With 1 votes more, Gravity would have won PGA alone and 12 years a slave nothing.
Birdman has nothing more than the guilds and never a Movie has won with zero support in the other awards (Budapest even winning at the comedy category at GG and CC where Birdman was the strong frontrunner, Birdman Only won 1 bafta and Only a Technical one).
Last year, believe it or not, but the strong support from the guild make believe a lot that Gravity Will triomph.
All statistics are made to be broken and that Will be the case this year.
Roberto, not sure of predictive value of satellites, probably not much, but interesting that they split BP/BD Birdman/Linklater.
One of the weirdest parts of this Oscar race has been Birdman’s prospects increasing as Keaton’s decreased. Hard to believe that AMPAS would embrace Birdman but leave out Keaton, but I think it’s likely to happen
Despite the stats, my head may say Birdman, but my heart and gut say Boyhood will prevail.
Keaton won at the Satellites, not Redmayne.
Truefinn that’s the point I’ve been making. If imitation game or theory of everything, old school Oscar bait, were sweeping that would be a cause for annoyance. But Birdman and Boyhood fans should appreciate either winning as neither is a typical Oscar BP winner.
I’ve always loved Inarritu, and when I saw Birdman I was blown away. But disappointed at the point as it appeared Boyhood was a shoo-in for BP. The fact that it’s prospects have soared makes has made it so much more exciting to watch. I don’t want to get my hopes up, as my favorites rarely win, but I hope this is one of those years.
Thank you @bluefox94.
I’ve been an avid follower of this website for over 6 years. I barely ever comment.
But I needed to mention how much I enjoyed yours.
If only more people on this website could have such a positive view, considering we are all meant to be movie lovers.
And I always thought the idea of art being subjective was just universally understood amongst film fans.
Apparently some people need reminding every now and then.
No mention of the Satellite winners? I consider them part of the Big 5.
I haven’t finalized my predictions yet, but here’s my vipe:
PICTURE – Birdman
DIRECTOR – Linklater
LEAD – Redmayne and Moore
SUPPORTING – Simmons and Arquette
SCREENPLAY – Birdman and Game
ANIMATED – Dragon
EDITING – Boyhood
Overall:
Birdman wins 4 Oscars (Picture, Screenplay, Cinematography, and Sound Editing)
Boyhood wins 3 Oscars (Director, Supporting Actress, and Editing)
Budapest wins 3 Oscars (Art Direction, Costume, and Make-up)
Whiplash wins 2 Oscars (Supporting Actor and Sound Mixing)
The Theory of Everything wins 2 Oscars (Actor and Score)
MIK – I’m going to double down on your comments! Because you said exactly what has been in my mind. Nightcrawler and Interstellar really deserved more love. Imitation Game etc is so…90s style… Good, but super old school filmmaking.
Rob – I experienced the same thing when I was watching the movie the first time around. I Hated the Drum score. I got annoyed by the seemingly needless one-take approach. The hoarse inner birdman voice. For me, the movie only got enjoyable after the daughter ranted at her dad, and then he smokes up while the classical music plays in the background. From that point on, I enjoyed it immensely.
During the second viewing, I enjoyed every minute. The painful drum score became uniquely enjoyable. The one-take approach had a story related significance to it. The hidden clues became a pleasure to hunt for. And the endless discussions I can have with friends about the movie and its ending are just fascinating.
Give it a second chance, Rob.
Birdman and Boyhood are amazing movies. Boyhood will be, or maybe already is, a classic. Birdman is not and won’t be. It’s so rare to find an instant classic like Boyhood nowadays that how can you not vote for it? The Artist was considered a bound-to-be cult classic, ignoring that its relevance was very much pertinent to the time it came out. It was the right movie at the right time (but a bad movie anyway). Birdman has come at the right time: it has a topic the industry clearly digs, it’a a technical feast and a wild ride altogether. To me, it is a fantastic film (seriously, I love it) wrongfully chosen to represent the movie industry.
Me, I’m celebrating that we have had such an innovative year of film making. I’m a film teacher and most years maybe one or two films come out that I will screen and focus on in class. This year I’ll take boyhood, birdman, whiplash, the grand Budapest hotel, night crawler and interstellar. Those will all stand the test of time to me. I don’t really care which wins out of the two front runners, one was innovative and groundbreaking when it comes to storytelling and one when it comes to the technical aspects of film making (although that’s simplifying massively, both claims can be made for each film in reality). My only real complaint is that the last two films I mentioned didn’t get more recognition and rather stuff like the theory of everything and the imitation game (which I did like) and American sniper (which I didn’t) took up loads of the obvious spots. That’s what’s wrong with the academy, this site is focusing on the little picture too much…and lest I should forget it was all doom and gloom a month or so ago that American sniper was going to run away with the major awards, I bet you would’ve taken a birdman win back then.
“FEBRUARY 16, 2015
Stop the Oscars!!
Some posters on Awards Daily don’t like Birdman. It’s editors prefer Boyhood.
Seriously guys, film is a matter of taste. I thought boyhood was very boring, but my opinion doesn’t matter. I’d rather discuss the precursors and the relevant strength of these.
Can we do more Oscar predicting than ranting about the films we don’t like??”
You are not objective, like everyone else. You so want Birdman to win that you can’t accept that other people still believe in Boyhood’s victory. You call them some delusional that can’t accept the futur Birdman’s victory, and How they can dare to vote for Boyhood (like half of the experts on GoldDerby).
But If you are so confident about Birdman, Why it bothers you that Much ? Leave people predict what they want and we Will see who Will be right in one week. Oscars are not a matter of Life. Take some break
” could write 20 topics on why I feel that Birdman is a vacuous, alienating, narcissistic, cynical, contemptuous, and nihilistic waste of celluloid and call it a thesis. It is one of the worst cinematic experiences I have ever had. I’m not exaggerating. I cannot remember a film where I had such a horrible experience. There is not one moment of this film I enjoyed—outside the interaction with the (unbelievably written) theater critic. I was rooting for her. Loved her!
And it started with that painful drum score. . . .”
This……Birdman was so overrated and pretentious, just like Hollywood.
Was so great about Boyhood on the other hand is the lack of pretense, the natural feel to it. Hollywood cannot make this, Austin can.
Stop the Oscars!!
Some posters on Awards Daily don’t like Birdman. It’s editors prefer Boyhood.
Seriously guys, film is a matter of taste. I thought boyhood was very boring, but my opinion doesn’t matter. I’d rather discuss the precursors and the relevant strength of these.
Can we do more Oscar predicting than ranting about the films we don’t like??
Sam L.
I would love a Grand Budapest Hotel upset.
“The one-shot camera trick is not the only thing that makes Birdman unique. There’s also the diegetic drum score. The showcasing of theater and cinema performances. The list really goes on and on. I think people could write over 20 thesis’ on the movie and have completely different angles to it.”
I could write 20 topics on why I feel that Birdman is a vacuous, alienating, narcissistic, cynical, contemptuous, and nihilistic waste of celluloid and call it a thesis. It is one of the worst cinematic experiences I have ever had. I’m not exaggerating. I cannot remember a film where I had such a horrible experience. There is not one moment of this film I enjoyed—outside the interaction with the (unbelievably written) theater critic. I was rooting for her. Loved her!
And it started with that painful drum score. . . .
I have now watched every nominated film/actor/technical this year in every category. I’m just going to say it! Why every year does the industry have to push and root for the film that is the most unique/different without a thought to what cinema is all about….. Its fucking entertainment and its never going to get past that. When I walk into a cinema or prepare for the journey of a home movie I am aware that I’m not walking into a small dark room in the back of an art gallery to watch a piece of abstract film (thinking thoughts of ‘Tree Of Life” here) But as it has been quoted on this very site -“You see a good movie, but you feel a great one” ….. yeh yeh I know movies are still art and they are objective and people have different perspectives and all that shit…I know but come on guys, Is the ‘WORLD’, (not the industry minority) going to look back in ten years and say Boyhood and Birdman stood the test of time? and thats why they won…. These are the front runners because they are unique and neither follow the mold, and I do give them big props for that. BUT at least one of them holds your attention and makes you feel something…agggh. Boyhood is a movie yes, but I mean is there really anything interesting about me going up the road to Bob & Janes house and making a carefully edited movies out of their home videos? Would it be interesting?, would anyone give a shit really? Naturalist cinema, come on guys, walk out of the movies after a naturalist biopic and tell me you want to change something in your life…. Tell me you want to be a better person, or question the universe… NOPE, not happening, yeh it was cool that it was shot over 12 years, very brave give him credit but come on if it was a book would anyone ready it??
“Missan, not sure how many times we have to go through it
PGA/DGA/SAG trio is a better predictor than BAFTA/GG/CC
That makes Birdman not a lock, but more likely. And add to that it’s other guild wins.
It’s not rocket science”
But what is the % of a GG/CC/Bafta combinaison ? I think really really strong too. You are way too confident for Birdman. Everything is possible at this point.
It was the same Last year.
Hum… I do my research and what is really interesting is that Last year, and the same Time of the year, 12 years a slave was Boyhood and Gravity Birdman is this blog : http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2014/01/the-state-of-the-race-guilds-split-three-ways-gravity-has-edge/
“Don’t loose hope Sasha 12 years a slave still have a chance” etc. I hope it Will repeat this year
Gravity won the following last year:
DGA
PGA
ASC
CAS
Art Director’s Guild
MPSE
VFX
12 Years stole, er won, BP. Come on, still time to get on board the Budapest train to victory!
Missan, not sure how many times we have to go through it
PGA/DGA/SAG trio is a better predictor than BAFTA/GG/CC
That makes Birdman not a lock, but more likely. And add to that it’s other guild wins.
It’s not rocket science
“I don’t think you understand what we’re saying here. No film has won without one of these guilds: PGA/DGA/SAG (Best Cast)/WGA. Therefore, if it should suddenly win without having taken any of those awards (given by those in the industry, many of whom are Oscar voters), then it would be a huge upset.”
Yeah but I have the strange sensation that you seems to dissmiss the stats that are for Boyhood. It win GG+CC+Bafta and I think the stats for this combinaison is pretty strong too. If you think it’s a lock for Birdman, There is a really good chance you Will be really disappointed next monday. Don’t be so sure.
“Curious what your criteria is for a movie that “stands the test of time.” Because I would bet money both Boyhood and Birdman will be forgotten rather quickly. They are small almost indie films that most people will never remember, see, or even hear of. Critically loved yes, widely loved – no. People hate when others bring up Titanic, Lord of the Rings, Gladiator, etc as movies that stand the test of time. But they do because they were both widely admired, and were widely SEEN. A movie like 12 Years a Slave, the Hurt Locker, the Artist, Crash, this year’s frontrunners…. they simply do not have the staying power of a Saving Private Ryan, Forrest Gump, Gravity, Lord of the Rings, etc.”
Have you heard of the cult classic? Movies stand the test of time in other ways as well, such as Fargo and Pulp Fiction. Hell, even movies that were little known on release, find an audience and acclaim much later, like The Shawshank Redemption. The thing about Boyhood right now is that it was under promoted and did not have the advertising behind it, as well as limited release. But due to record critical acclaim, it will easily become at least a cult classic. Hell, There Will Be Blood has been called the movie of the decade for 2000-2010, and that was little seen on release.
It’s the first year I follow the Award season, but what do people say when Gravity was winning all these guild awards like Birdman this year ?
“better judge of quality than those wankers in AMPAS who select films for Best Picture that don’t stand the test of time most of the time.”
Curious what your criteria is for a movie that “stands the test of time.” Because I would bet money both Boyhood and Birdman will be forgotten rather quickly. They are small almost indie films that most people will never remember, see, or even hear of. Critically loved yes, widely loved – no. People hate when others bring up Titanic, Lord of the Rings, Gladiator, etc as movies that stand the test of time. But they do because they were both widely admired, and were widely SEEN. A movie like 12 Years a Slave, the Hurt Locker, the Artist, Crash, this year’s frontrunners…. they simply do not have the staying power of a Saving Private Ryan, Forrest Gump, Gravity, Lord of the Rings, etc.
So, because Metacritic thinks so, do you also think that Gravity is a better movie than the following best picture winners –
Argo
The Artist
The King’s Speech
The Hurt Locker
Slumdog Millionaire
And do you think 12 years a slave is better than all of them too?
“What this article is telling us is that If the academy chooses something that Sasha does not agree with, if it goes to Birdman instead of Boyhood, the they are certainly wrong. If the academy members does not think like Sasha then they are wrong and small, and she is big.
Just bitter.”
Or maybe once again, the Academy is going to pick another movie that simply does not stand the test of time, in that its more of a narcissist look at us pick than a true classic, and Sasha is calling the industry out for being out of touch.
Wow Birdman has won Golden Reel for Sound Editing tonight too.
Has a chance for both sound Oscars now
What this article is telling us is that If the academy chooses something that Sasha does not agree with, if it goes to Birdman instead of Boyhood, the they are certainly wrong. If the academy members does not think like Sasha then they are wrong and small, and she is big.
Just bitter.
Voters should vote for what they liked best, that’s their right. It shouldn’t have to be about the most ambitious, or what you think is “highest achievement.” If that were the case, then Gravity should’ve won in a landslide last year. Instead you pushed hard for 12 Years a Slave because it was a film about slavery from a slave’s point of view directed by a black man (big social message). That’s fine, that was your criteria. Other voters have their own. If Boyhood doesn’t win, it won’t be because the voters are trying to avoid picking the frontrunner, it will be because it simply wasn’t as entertaining to most people as Birdman was.
“Congratulations on finding the holy grail – 48 wankers on metacritic.”
better judge of quality than those wankers in AMPAS who select films for Best Picture that don’t stand the test of time most of the time.
AMEN…!!!!!
“This site has a very self righteous approach to the Oscars. When their favorite wins like Hurt Locker it’s all sweetness and light, when their favorite doesn’t, it’s evil AMPAS all the way, something is wrong, etc etc”
texasgoldrush are you Richard Linklater?, hahahah let it go, your life and mine will be the same with either Boyhood or Birdman winning, get over it
Akumax the guilds are better predictors than the awards you mentioned, but it appears there will be no convincing those of you that love Boyhood, and that’s ok.
It’s one thing to root for the film you love, it’s another to ignore the precursors that matter most.
This site has a very self righteous approach to the Oscars. When their favorite wins like Hurt Locker it’s all sweetness and light, when their favorite doesn’t, it’s evil AMPAS all the way, something is wrong, etc etc
I find it interesting that as a recognised Oscar expert/predictor, Sasha would rather be wrong in her prediction than predict against her favorite.
Congratulations on finding the holy grail – 48 wankers on metacritic.
My response to this poll, for the time being, is that Birdman will win Best Picture.
But I guess one of the reasons some pro bloggers/gurus are still seeing Boyhood as a threat to Michael Keaton-starring piece is that Birdman still seems to fit into a divisive-film mold, thus themselves under the impression that the preferential ballot system is going to take its toll and that Boyhood will still prevail at the end of the day. I am rooting for Birdman (alternatively, The Grand Budapest Hotel) in BP category, but oddly enough, despite the previous precursors in favor of Birdman, I just can’t help feeling that Boyhood may still have a decent chance. I am somewhat vaguely feeling what those few gurus are doing now by predicting Boyhood […] but for now, as far as reasoning goes, I am with the recent precursors (and my preference [though that is another story when it comes to prediction]). Just my two cents, though.
“Yes, that’s why 12 Years a slave won last year, C’MON and about that 100% in Metacritic for Boyhood, congrats, a 100% think is a good film, me included, but the best of the year, of course not.”
Wrong, it got 100 on Metacritic because a ton of critics gave it perfect scores.
“Seriously, this whole metacritic argument is very tame. Just a bunch of wankers with nothing more than labels and shitty opinions and even shittier comparisons. These metacritic guys don’t have a clue. Gravity got a 96 for Christ’s sake!”
Well, 12 Years a Slave got a 97
The most flawed argument: “You want to win an Oscar? Make a movie about show people. Make it funny. Make it sexy. Make them look really really good — or if not good, at least noble. They are fighting the good fight, standing up for true art and all of that. At least, that’s what they want the awards to be about: themselves”
Yes, that’s why 12 Years a slave won last year, C’MON and about that 100% in Metacritic for Boyhood, congrats, a 100% think is a good film, me included, but the best of the year, of course not.
Also, even If Boyhood doesn’t win BP, it is still and Will always be the best picture in our hearts. That is better than what Academy says 😉 Birdman is still a great Movie
Seriously, this whole metacritic argument is very tame. Just a bunch of wankers with nothing more than labels and shitty opinions and even shittier comparisons. These metacritic guys don’t have a clue. Gravity got a 96 for Christ’s sake!
“But it’s also the truth that the Academy often times ignores what the critics say. They don’t really pay attention too much no matter how many times critics bang the drum or how loud critics bang it.”
And that’s their problem, the Academy is just so out of touch with not only critics but with the public as well.
Its not only just favoring Birdman over Boyhood as well, its the snubbing of Selma in many categories and not even nominating LEGO Movie for best animated feature that is also the problem.
Hell, Birdman is not even the second best movie this year.
Only one film has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Movie Award and the Bafta for both Director and Picture without repeating the win at the Oscar for both Best Picture and Director: Brokeback Mountain which won Director only (plus screenplay and music)
And we know that that year something despicable was going on!
I don’t see an all American masterpiece like Boyhood completely overlooked in both category.
Texas, Birdman won 7 critics choice awards. Yes it’s not loved by critics as much as Boyhood, but it’s still well regarded by them.
As I’ve written before AMPAS almost never gets it right in my opinion. Can count on one hand times they voted for my best film of the year- godfather, silence of the lambs, American beauty.
Hoping with Birdman this is one such year for me.
If boyhood was losing to Oscar bait like Imitation Game or Theory of Everything, that would be annoying. If it loses to the quirky atypical Birdman, we should celebrate that.
Sacha, I understand your pessimism. But call me a Crazy and delutional, I still think Boyhood can win BP. 15 people is okay, but far away from 6000. I have read some Academy members on EW who said they Will vote Boyhood. Don’t Forget it is Also a preferential ballot, so even If 15 people doesn’t put Boyhood at number 1, If it’s in their top 3 it is still great. Don’t loose hopes
Birdman has won every guild except WGA(not eligible) and ACE. Bow down to Fox Searchlight.
BlueFox94 bravo!, couldn’t have said it better, you are totally right, is always the same in this site, they disregard the film that is not their favorite but don’t acknowledge that is just not their taste the only one that matter, art is subjective, and in this case for a lot of people me included BIRDMAN is the best when pitted against Boyhood (I think is a great effort, but I don’t see the masterpiece in any part of it)
Bravo BlueFox94
“But there is objective truth, the truth is that Boyhoods critical acclaim is the highest its been in decades. That’s a fact.”
But it’s also the truth that the Academy often times ignores what the critics say. They don’t really pay attention too much no matter how many times critics bang the drum or how loud critics bang it.
“Yeah because critics have never been wrong before. (The Night of the Hunter, Psycho, Fight Club, The Shining)
Declaring what film is the best is of course silly. Art is and will always be largely subjective. The film that you like the best is usually going to be the film that you think is the best. I seriously doubt that Sasha hated watching Boyhood and is simply decreeing it the best out of some romantic notion of objective truth. In all likelihood, she really enjoyed watching the movie. She liked it.
Many people – critics, industry, members on here – clearly legitimately think that Birdman is the best movie of the year.”
But there is objective truth, the truth is that Boyhoods critical acclaim is the highest its been in decades. That’s a fact.
For the next week I’m just going to stick with my personal very private possibly rotten surely questionable take on this awards season:
There is a film, Boyhood, a masterpiece, which has won every single big televised film award of the season (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Bafta) except one (SAG), and there is a good movie with some flaws (ending!!!) which won just one (SAG).
So my frontrunner until saturday is BOYHOOD.
Next saturday the Film Independent Spirit Awards have both films nominated… EXCITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THERE.
@Patrick
Clearly true, art is all in the eye of the beholder. There are people who have no appetite for The Godfather and whatnot.
“But its flawed analysis, as the branches didn’t vote for best picture. Just because they vote for something that is the best in their field doesn’t mean they will vote for it for BP.”
It’s true that maybe not all the members in each branch will be like sheep, but still Birdman’s landslide sweep of almost every guild cannot be overlooked, and that maybe a warning sign.
Yeah because critics have never been wrong before. (The Night of the Hunter, Psycho, Fight Club, The Shining)
Declaring what film is the best is of course silly. Art is and will always be largely subjective. The film that you like the best is usually going to be the film that you think is the best. I seriously doubt that Sasha hated watching Boyhood and is simply decreeing it the best out of some romantic notion of objective truth. In all likelihood, she really enjoyed watching the movie. She liked it.
Many people – critics, industry, members on here – clearly legitimately think that Birdman is the best movie of the year.
“Yeah.
I also calculated the vote total for Birdman’s branch votes based on how many guilds it won and the corresponding branches at the result (assuming if everyone voted for that film) is roughly about 73 percent.”
But its flawed analysis, as the branches didn’t vote for best picture. Just because they vote for something that is the best in their field doesn’t mean they will vote for it for BP.
“I don’t think you understand what we’re saying here. No film has won without one of these guilds: PGA/DGA/SAG (Best Cast)/WGA. Therefore, if it should suddenly win without having taken any of those awards (given by those in the industry, many of whom are Oscar voters), then it would be a huge upset.”
Yeah.
I also calculated the vote total for Birdman’s branch votes based on how many guilds it won and the corresponding branches at the result (assuming if everyone voted for that film) is roughly about 73 percent.
*since before the PGA awards were even around starting in 1989.
“But it still would not be an upset. Boyhood still has good odds. Its close.”
I don’t think you understand what we’re saying here. No film has won without one of these guilds: PGA/DGA/SAG (Best Cast)/WGA. Therefore, if it should suddenly win without having taken any of those awards (given by those in the industry, many of whom are Oscar voters), then it would be a huge upset.
Birdman guild count:
SAG Ensemble
DGA Best Director
PGA Best Picture
ASC Best Cinematography
CAS Best Sound Mixing
ADG Best Contemporary Art Direction
Make Up and Hairstyling Guild Best Contemporary Hairstyling
Total: 7
“In terms of what it’s failed to win, yes it would. Critical acclaim has nothing to do with these awards. These are people who work in the industry, not critics.”
But it still would not be an upset. Boyhood still has good odds. Its close.
“Never have the Oscar voters and industry voters seemed to narrow-minded and closed off from everything else happening and evolving around them. Never have they seemed so small.” The 2006 Oscars (Crash over Brokeback Mountain) comes to mind for me!
“He meant winning Best Picture while being almost nearly shutout of the guilds awards. No film has won BP without DGA/SAG/WGA/PGA since they started giving awards at the same time (which was 1996).”
But as well, Boyhood won a ton of critics awards a Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Birdman did not do so well.
“A movie with record critical acclaim winning would not be an upset.”
In terms of what it’s failed to win, yes it would. Critical acclaim has nothing to do with these awards. These are people who work in the industry, not critics.
@Texasgoldrush
“A movie with record critical acclaim winning would not be an upset.”
He meant winning Best Picture while being almost nearly shutout of the guilds awards. No film has won BP without DGA/SAG/WGA/PGA since they started giving awards at the same time (which was 1996).
@Hawkeye
“I’d say that’s a 100% lock, especially since the alternative is the biggest upset in over 25 years.”
A movie with record critical acclaim winning would not be an upset.
Both Boyhood and Birdman are near-masterpieces from their respective brilliant directors. Of the two, I would narrowly opt for Boyhood due to its unique filming style and narrative and thematic subtlety, but Birdman is also a worthy alternative, a thrilling, technically accomplished, brilliantly acted movie that still lingers in my mind almost a month after I saw it. Hopefully the Academy will award both Inarritu and Linklater this Sunday.
@Hawkeye
“I’d say that’s a 100% lock, especially since the alternative is the biggest upset in over 25 years.”
In terms of the guilds/societies, it did win a ACE and BAFTA which does count for something. However, it would be stunning and somewhat shocking to see Boyhood to win Best Picture and or Best Director at this point.
“You really can’t believe what you’re saying, right? Your attempt to discredit Birdman is astonishing. I would really like to understand in what universe is rewarding Birdman more of the same. The movie would easily be the weirdest winner in history. You really make the Oscar race an all or nothing scenario and it’s dramatic and overly simplistic.”
But here is the deal, Boyhood has record critical acclaim, that’s the problem. A 100 on Metacritic, now that is crazy.
You really can’t believe what you’re saying, right? Your attempt to discredit Birdman is astonishing. I would really like to understand in what universe is rewarding Birdman more of the same. The movie would easily be the weirdest winner in history. You really make the Oscar race an all or nothing scenario and it’s dramatic and overly simplistic.
“Not exactly a 100% lock for Birdman as Claudiu analyzed, but it seems all signs point to a Birdman win. Especially considering Boyhood failed to win either the SAG Ensemble, PGA, WGA, or DGA Award. And no film since the existence of all four awards AT THE SAME TIME has won Best Picture without one of those.”
I’d say that’s a 100% lock, especially since the alternative is the biggest upset in over 25 years.
@Hawkeye
Not exactly a 100% lock for Birdman as Claudiu analyzed, but it seems all signs point to a Birdman win. Especially considering Boyhood failed to win either the SAG Ensemble, PGA, WGA, or DGA Award. And no film since the existence of all four awards AT THE SAME TIME has won Best Picture without one of those.
“So glad you said that on paper without the camera gimmicks Birdman is just a very good play.
This very good is still better than Boyhood , which without its 12 years gimmick is nothing more than an episode of Parenthood or Brothers and Sisters.
Yeah I said it”
Mark my words, Birdman will not stand the test of time. It will be forgotten just like most of the recent best pictures the Academy selects.
Birdman is a wild ride, but I ask again: W… T… F… is it about? The knock against Innaritu was always that he made pretentious, ultimately hollow movies filled with great actors. I’m not so sure how Birdman breaks the mold there.
So glad you said that on paper without the camera gimmicks Birdman is just a very good play.
This very good is still better than Boyhood , which without its 12 years gimmick is nothing more than an episode of Parenthood or Brothers and Sisters.
Yeah I said it.
Ever since I first heard of BIRDMAN early in the summer, I pegged it as the film to watch. I watched BOYHOOD and loved the concept and appreciate how it will stand out in cinematic history forever, but I didn’t unconditionally love it and I have my reasons as to why. Still, BOYHOOD is in my top 20 for 2014.
But BIRDMAN…after two viewings, I knew I had seen my favorite film of the year–a film integrated and excellent in pretty much all aspects of craft, technicals, story, theme, and relevance. I loved it wholeheartedly and held onto that love for it in the face of detractors. I know why I love what I love, and I wish to be always true to that–true to myself.
For the record, here’s the remainder of my top 5 for 2014:
– NIGHTCRAWLER has the relevance and the performance and the narrative logic, but Dan Gilroy is still a director who still needs to craft a unique vision for himself, otherwise, it would’ve been my favorite of 2014;
– WHIPLASH shot to number three due to pure passion from beginning to end, I’ll always love it, but not at the level of BIRDMAN;
– THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL was a further refining of Wes Anderson’s style and it’s fantastic, but I’m not head-over-heels a fan of Anderson enough to make it my favorite;
– THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA (because that extra “THE” ruins it) was simply gorgeous–the best animated film of the year–but I knew I couldn’t raise it higher because the story did teeter and wander a bit.
And, on an additional note,
– EDGE OF TOMORROW (and, to a slightly lesser extent, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY) will remain my most rewatchable films of the year–the films I can watch from beginning to end every time without fail that weren’t necessarily the best films of the year.
Is it narrow-minded and closed-off of me to deny admitting that BIRDMAN is my favorite film of the year and the most deserving to win Best Picture and Best Director? If someone can theoretically take away the one-take technique (one that seemed experimental in other films, but THEMATICALLY RELEVANT in this film) from BIRDMAN, I can take away the 12-year organic growth of BOYHOOD and just see it as an indie movie about a typical American boy and his typical path to adulthood.
Both BIRDMAN and BOYHOOD are simple stories at heart, but their executions made them fresh, exciting, unique, and (most importantly) worth the price of admission–NO ONE CAN EVER take those away from them or any other film.
Yet in the end, I honest-to-God just simply love BIRDMAN (and around 10 other films from 2014) more.
And, more importantly, I KNOW why I love them more than BOYHOOD if I ever had to discuss my tastes with another film buff.
What’s wrong with liking another film more, especially if they can defend it within reason? Everyone has the ability to make a valid opinion on art. Can’t a BIRDMAN fan be allowed to relish their time in the spotlight when it suddenly shines on them and away from a BOYHOOD fan, even if the spotlight is at the hands of a somewhat-easy-to-be-swayed 6K member Motion Picture Academy? (which, in spite of some corrupted contingents, remains the most credible voting body for film awards because, unlike critics, they’re the true industry peers of the honored filmmakers.)
I was feeling that BIRDMAN had a chance at Oscar glory from the moment I left the theater, even with BOYHOOD’s dominance. I even mustered up the humility to be ready to welcome BOYHOOD at the Oscars because it is a unique achievement and will be among those cinematic gems that will stand out from 2014, but now I’m ecstatic that my favorite film is suddenly gaining momentum (though I fear for Keaton likely inevitable loss to Redmayne for Best Actor). Is it wrong for me to celebrate?
BIRDMAN is my favorite film of the year and the film I’d immediately answer as the best of the year.
I really liked BOYHOOD and it will assuredly intrigue people enough to watch it if I tell them how it was made.
Can’t I still be a credible film buff and vigilant Oscar follower with that humble opinion?
I know I can and I pray that I will continue to be for the rest of my life.
And that, for me, is enough. 🙂
This is going to be the best Oscar night in over a decade. Birdman already has a lock on Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography, but there’s still a big chance for Best Actor (especially if they REALLY love the film) and now Sound Mixing as well. Still waiting for the MPSE to finish announcing. If they go for Birdman as well, there could be potential for up to seven Oscars.
“Time and time again, they select movies that fail to stand the test of time” — Tell that to The Godfather, Lawrence of Arabia, Annie Hall, Midnight Cowboy, Gone with the Wind, On the Waterfront, No Country for Old Men, The Silence of the Lambs…”
How about Annie Hall (over Star Wars which was one of the most definitive movies ever), Ordinary People, Gandhi, Crash, The Last Emperor, Driving Miss Daisy, Dances With Wolves, Chicago, Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient, Kramer vs Kramer, and more.
They only beat Star Wars, Raging Bull, ET, Brokeback Mountain, Full Metal Jacket (not even nominated), Born on the 4th of July, Goodfellas, The Pianist, Saving Private Ryan, Fargo, Apocalypse Now and many others. You know, movies that stand the test of time while those that won those years did not.
@Andrew
Not saying that Birdman is not loved by critics. It’s just that Boyhood seems to be the flaming hot sexy film for the critics, Kinda like Boyhood and Birdman were to critics what Rachel and Leah to Jacob in the Bible.
Really birdienest? Birdman has 88 on MT, 92 on RT and won 6 critics choice awards. Not exactly shunned by critics
Time and time again, they select movies that fail to stand the test of time” — Tell that to The Godfather, Lawrence of Arabia, Annie Hall, Midnight Cowboy, Gone with the Wind, On the Waterfront, No Country for Old Men, The Silence of the Lambs…
Now Sasha, won’t you feel silly writing this if Boyhood does defy the odds by winning Best Picture?
Your readers are still predicting Boyhood, including me. But I won’t be knocked out of my chair if “Birdman” wins. I liked it, but as you say, not the most deserving winner.
Daniel Montgomery said over at Gold Derby that even though the Academy Awards are to films what the Super Bowl is to the NFL, the Oscars should never be the final word on what’s the best in cinema. And I do agree with him to extent. However, I think the Oscars are one of the last reasons to motivate filmmakers to create great movies rather than give in to the superhero/action/slapstick farce complex.
If there’s one defining aspect about your work that I admire, Sasha, it’s the fact that you still take it this hard after 15 years. The passion, the drive to push the fucking needle, even if it’s a futile effort, even if it annoys the living shit out of people…that is simply a real and genuine dedication to what you love.
Kudos, Sasha.
Here is the thing, the Academy Awards have been pretty much useless for years. Time and time again, they select movies that fail to stand the test of time while the movies that should win best picture but didn’t, become classics. The Academy is useless, they should fade away in relevance.
But here is why this year may be the worst year in Oscar history, because a classic, clear as daylight, was released this year and the academy is too stupid or too full of themselves to pick it. To put in caps to make a point: BOYHOOD IS ONE OF THE MOST CRITICALLY ACCLAIMED MOVIES OF ALL TIME. There is no other rightful winner. Boyhood is objectively the best.
Picking Birdman, which has no where near the acclaim outside the industry, is just another black eye on the Academy if it wins, just like picking Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan (or even Thin Red Line, which was just as good).
I’ve never seen a big divide between critics and the industry since Forrest Gump and Pulp Fiction or Social Network and King’s Speech. It’s what TV Tropes calls it Critical Dissonance.
That being said, I don’t mind if Boyhood or Birdman or TGBH wins the big gold Lombardi trophy.
@Andrew
Yeah, I think it is. It did not receive a perfect 100 score on Metacritic for nothing.
Birdman is better than you give it credit for. For years, these artsy movies have never stood a chance at winning an oscar. Typically the reason is because the film is too emotionally disconnected. But here is a movie that nails it on both frontiers. And that really is something to celebrate in my opinion. The one-shot camera trick is not the only thing that makes Birdman unique. There’s also the diegetic drum score. The showcasing of theater and cinema performances. The list really goes on and on. I think people could write over 20 thesis’ on the movie and have completely different angles to it. Boyhood is great too… very enjoyable movie. I can imagine why it must connect so strongly with you. But obviously this movie connects with Academy voters more, for more or less the same reasons that Boyhood connects with you.
But we still have 12/25 experts on Gold Derby for Boyhood, is it like Sasha, pure Boyhood love?
@Andrew
“What puzzles me is why are so many experts not listening to the guilds this year? Love for Boyhood? a serious question.”
I guess the BAFTA and critics awards are making people pick Boyhood still. Just ask Claudiu how this works. However, see my comment above about overlaps.
Well, Claudiu does give credits to Boyhood’s BAFTA, BFCA, ACE, and GG wins, but Birdman has support from the Hollywood business which has a bigger overlap (the critics awards don’t vote and BAFTA is only eight percent of AMPAS whereas DGA/SAG/PGA /WGA is roughly 25-30 percent).
Birdman won ASC tonight too
What puzzles me is why are so many experts not listening to the guilds this year? Love for Boyhood? a serious question
Wow what a dummy spit!
For those of us who love Birdman this will be a great year for AMPAS if it wins.
A very atypical winner no matter which way you want to spin it.
Boyhood has it’s back against the wall. Not only has it not won PGA/SAG/DGA, it also lost WGA as well. [b]No film since the existence of all four awards AT THE SAME TIME (since 1996 or 1995 if you go by film release year) has lost PGA, SAG, DGA, and WGA, and then proceed to win Best Picture.[/b] And Budapest is the one likely to do a Braveheart upset (both won WGA and ACE and both are nomination leaders).