Gold Derby is paying out a cool $1,000 for the winner of this year’s Oscar prediction contest. Head on over to play.
Tom O’Neil who runs Gold Derby asked me why, if I keep saying Birdman is going to win Best Picture, I keep predicting Boyhood. Here is my answer:
1) I have predicted no other film to win Best Picture this year. Every single time anyone has asked me to predict I put Boyhood on the top, and Birdman usually second. I do not think I would be a useful predictor if I scrambled around now at the last minute and shifted Birdman to the top spot. Why would that be meaningful in any way? Even someone like Scott Feinberg, who prides himself on being a good predictor had every other movie imaginable on top, from Interstellar to Boyhood at one point but no Birdman. If he now shifts his prediction to Birdman, as he has done, that doesn’t tell you anything much either. That’s sort of like seeing that it’s raining outside and declaring, it’s raining. So I don’t want to change my prediction now, that’s one reason.
2) There is the chance that Boyhood and Birdman might split. Even though the most likely scenario at this point is Birdman for Picture and Inarritu for director, it is not a guarantee. The BAFTA and the Globes not choosing Birdman breaks with history in a significant way, as does Birdman’s not having an editing nomination. I don’t know for a certainty that Birdman will take both top categories. What if Boyhood takes director and Birdman picture? What if Boyhood takes Picture and Birdman director? If I predict both Boyhood and Linklater I stand a better chance at getting one or the other right in a split. Of course I could just predict Birdman and Inarritu and be twice as likely to be right but honestly I’m not that invested in being “right,” especially this year when no one has been. The closest thing you get to right this year are the people who thought Boyhood was “soft” – like Tapley and Hammond and those guys.
3) Boyhood is the better film and I’m hanging on to that tiny reed of hope that the Academy realizes what the rest of the industry could not. It’s a slim chance and a long shot bet but there are enough people predicting Birdman, and I would never advise anyone playing in a contest or in an office pool to hang their hopes on such a slim possibility but hey, after 16 years of this nonsense I have to get my kicks somehow.
4) Yes, the actors rule. They topple every other branch by almost double. But why oh why didn’t they award Michael Keaton for Best Actor if they loved Birdman THAT much? That has confounded me from the beginning. Still, PGA+DGA+SAG is an unbeatable combo. Follow the math. My head says Birdman, my heart says Boyhood and I can’t reconcile the two.
5) As David Carr left in his email signature file, “Call on God but row away from the rocks.” Dwell in reality when predicting the Oscar race.
Here is the latest Gurus of Gold:
And here is the first – so you could say Glenn Whipp was the first person to call Birdman for the win:
He changed it the following week and was back to Boyhood. No one had Birdman to win. Just before Selma and American Sniper were seen, The Film Experience’s Nat Rogers had Birdman at number one. Nathaniel stuck to Birdman the next week. The following week, around Thanksgiving, no one had Birdman. Finally, by the time final ballots were sent out (last Friday) two people has put Birdman to win, Thelma Adams and Steve Pond. And by their last accounting, Timothy Grey and David Poland had added their names to the list.
The story at Gold Derby is essentially the same. Jeff Wells has been removed from the list probably because he didn’t update his predictions but if he did he would be the one and the only one predicting Birdman, his be all, end all this year from the beginning. He has claimed those bragging rights and should get credit for being the Birdman guy. I’m happy to hand credit his way for that. Or as Sheryl Crow would say, if it makes you happy it can’t be that bad.
I’ll stick with Boyhood to the bitter end, thank you very much. But if I were betting cold hard cash? I’d probably go with Birdman and Inarritu, especially after hearing those tiresome Academy members lament Boyhood’s success. So fuck ’em. Richard Linklater will live out his days as the guy who should have won and believe me, that’s far better.
Enter our contest here.
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Steven Kane —
In 1967, three of the five Oscar nominations for Best Cinematography were:
Burnett Guffey — Bonnie and Clyde
Robert Surtees — The Graduate
Conrad Hall — In Cold Blood.
Guffey won, but damn, what a year.
Why not just have two lists then? What you THINK will win. What you WANT to win.
You are saying you’d bet cash on Birdman, but won’t put it as your top pick. I’m trying to understand what the “function” of your predictions are, as an expert.
“What’s weird on gold derby is BP is divided 13/13 but Birdman is favoured for director 16/10
Isn’t a split more likely to be Birdman/Linklater?”
Their thinking is that Birdman is the more obvious directorial achievement. Can’t find much fault with that logic – I just don’t think there’s that much of a chance of there being a split.
“We see that Birdman won the PGA … but it may not have won by much over Boyhood.”
I mean, this is a silly argument. I can then say Boyhood may have won the Globe, BFCA, even BAFTA, by one vote. And lost by a lot at the guilds. Then you come in with counterpoints, I counter your arguments, we go back and forth… What’s the point? It’s not more likely that it lost by a little than that it lost by a lot. The evidence is contradictory (Birdman’s total guild love vs. Boyhood being completely embraced by all of the other groups). So how can you LOGICALLY and BEYOND DOUBT justify that your assumption (that the difference was small) is more likely to be true than not true? You can’t.
“We’d never know by how much. BUT, we’d figure that it was probably by A LOT because it won critics awards, the GG, the Critics Choice, the BAFTA.”
Further evidence of how pointless such assumptions are, as “we” would be dead wrong.
“Its just crazy to me how close this race seems, but ALSO how perception can be changed with the slightest change of wind or the smallest win/loss somewhere.”
The key is that it’s actually VERY RARELY only a matter of a few votes. Just because there was a tie last year, we can’t all of a sudden assume it’s always, or even most of the time, close. I’m sure it’s just not. The larger the group of voters, the LESS likely a close result (meaning only a few votes between the winner and 2nd place) is. And the PGA is 6000 people.
It interesting to note finally i had a look in depth at the oscar nominations.
(and yes small part Ryan cos i so disillusioned with oscar (or maybe oscar disillusioned with it self to the public:P) bnut the main reason i noit been around is dealingf with my own housing crisis – need for second job in hurry etc…
But sorry for delayed response last time we chatted Ryan and Sasha but yes of course time permitting i stay active on the stie how active however depends mainly on my ability to be on top of dramas in my life atm..and yes in smaller part but not primarily oscars toxic cultural attritude to itself and therefore to the film going public writ large!
And i say this.. 6 oscar nominations does not justify a default best picture win for Boyhood or frankly ANY film to only have 6 – not the fact of it number mind you but the fact that nearly half of the nominees have more nominations than Boyhood! And yet it wins everything before it…I beginning to think Bafta are no longer independent of mind..i could be wrong..no patience to research maybe someone could shed light on that matter.
Or maybe it that oscar too dependent on Bafta’s decisions in any event..
But i stand by my formula..To be respectable ‘Boyhood’ to last the test of time to both public appeal and critical acclaim MUST in many peoples eyes least of all mine win 4/6 oscars. it nominated for.
That inlcudes film editing if it cant win that and the other 3 it a ‘kinda sorta’ great film. No havent seen it frankly pissed off the obscurity of the films release in australia is literally blindeningly disgraceful i dont care for excuses.
(maybe it my stomach bug at work testing my patience maybe not)
Butn frankly the other more nominated films seem to be of high standard between them this year..so how Boyhood is sooo far head and shoulders to faovuritism over the more heavilty nominated and in my view deserved winners is beyond me.
Is refreshing to see no RonHoward/ Spielberg/. Scorcese contender..and that new talent and new comers dominate nominations..
Whho ended up dominating sag awards? how did Boyhood fare? does it even maTRER ANYmore to eventualk winner? on oscar night?
Scott, YES! The Graduate featured some amazing cinematography. I never saw it until film school and the teacher was just gushing over the camerawork. Then I watched it on my own and realized a movie that is really “unremarkable” (in the sense that nothing hugely grand or epic happens) can hold so much symbolism. As amazing as the script, the performances and the direction was, the cinematography (along with the songs) elevated it to pure poetry.
Rob Y, what I loved about the final drum solo was that it became everything both men were seeking the entire time. The cutting, the elevation in tension, it all lead me to think the faster Andrew was drumming the more in danger his health was going to be. I swear I thought he’d have a heart attack! I didn’t loosen my knuckles until the credits.
“The most brilliant cinematography of the year, as far as I am concerned, was the brilliant Australian horror film The Babadook. Watch that film with the sound off and revel in how brilliantly conceived and framed each shot is. ”
Great pick. Polanski and Lynch would be proud of Jennifer Kent.
Simone Italy, done! I loved seeing the titles in their Italian names.
Did I just say brilliant five times in one short post????? No writing award for me.
Steven — Good point about the delicate transitions in Boyhood.
Rob — Yes, and this also reminds me of hour infuriating the cinematography award tends to be. It usually goes to the most lush, prettiest looking film. But a film made on a shoestring budget can have the most brilliant cinematography, because what cinematography is primarily about is not the quality of the image on the screen, but the way that the camera is used to frame the action, and move within it.
The most brilliant cinematography of the year, as far as I am concerned, was the brilliant Australian horror film The Babadook. Watch that film with the sound off and revel in how brilliantly conceived and framed each shot is.
Same with The Graduate — famous for its comic screenplay, and the brilliant direction by Mike Nichols, and the great performances by Dustin Hoffman and Anne Bancroft, but WATCH the movie — a master class in beautiful use of the camera.
And although I didn’t like Whiplash as a film as a whole, I did enjoy what Cross did in the final drum solo. In fact that drum solo’s editing could easily be used as example of excellence in editing.
Simone Italy,
I tweeted your ballot link to one of my Italian movielover followers on Twitter and asked him to RT. Maybe that will get you some more participants from Italy, ok?
When I took an editing course, on the first day of class the instructor’s first words were “There is way more to editing than determining where to cut the film.” There are touch ups, balancing of colors, re-centering, change of brightness, etc. I could easily see the director and cinematographer working closely with the editor. It would hardly fall to the VFX to brighten one clip so that it matched the others to create a seamless scene. It is unfortunate that—for the majority of the time—the Academy seems to gravitate towards rewarding the frenetic.
Last year they rewarded Gravity a film that had very little cuts and still managed to be incredibly smooth. Hell, the second cut was over 20 minutes into the film. So a film can be filled with long shots and still walk away with the Oscar. In BM the transitions between the long shots were laughable—yes I laughed a couple of times from the editing; I think that’s a first for me. The montages that bookend the film were completely disjoint—which may fall to a problem with Inarritu—but it is ultimately a problem with the editing.
Scott, I would love for Whiplash to win editing. I thought Boyhood’s was pretty fantastic too, mainly for the transitions to the following year which were incredibly sublime. But what Tom Cross did, especially in the final concert as well as the three-way contest, was stellar.
Tom — Thanks — this is why I am predicting Whiplash, not Boyhood, for Editing. The jittery, kinetic character of that movie, and its musical subject matter, is prime material for the editing awards, and for once it was stylistically suited to the film, the story, the soundtrack, the themes.
Boyhood did not itself “visually” stand out as a strongly edited films. It will get some votes from people who think it should win because it MUST have been a big job to edit 12 years of footage down to the one film. But all the appeal of Boyhood is about its heart and soul, not the flashy or distinctive way it is shot. Also, some people may take the simplistic view that Boyhood was not well-edited because it was “boring, and three hours long”. And, finally, sounds like Linklater didn’t necessarily shoot mountains of footage over 12 years and then face the massive task of whittling that down to a 3 hour movie. I read somewhere that the shooting time of Boyhood over 12 years was just 39 days, which is shorter than many movies, and it was of course a low budget film, so Linklater may have had to be careful not to overshoot. Just a theory.
“Um, editing is more than the cuts. It is adjusting for mistakes along the way, and enhancing the film. There may be minimal cuts because of BM’s nature, but minimal still can achieve a nomination. Hell, The Artist got a writing nomination with about two dozen words to its dialogue.”
There’s like 10 long takes in BM and if there’s mistakes then the SFX comes in much much more than editing. Look at any Editing wins and it’s almost always the one with the most / flashiest cuts. Uh, last I checked subtitles count as dialogue!!! Artist’s Michel Hazanavicius won because he made a silent movie that people will sit thru when there hasn’t been one in 60+ years!!!
Hi Guys
Would you contribute to my Simulated Oscar Ballot?
I know it’s in Italian, but still…i’m curious as to how the Europeans or fellow mediterranean cinephiles see this Awards Season in terms of preferences 🙂
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1q_tLHPfWk-r18AK-vu6KXqiYxKdQzZTdsaNrnYsbukU/viewform
BOYHOOD has been winning since jump. Everything else was just to have something to talk about.
I meant to write DGA in my second sentence, dammit. 🙂
Here’s something we dont all think about enough:
We see that Birdman won the PGA … but it may not have won by much over Boyhood.
We see that Birdman won the PGA … but it may not have won by much over Boyhood.
What if Boyhood happened to have won both? Both by the smallest of margins. We’d never know by how much. BUT, we’d figure that it was probably by A LOT because it won critics awards, the GG, the Critics Choice, the BAFTA.
Then … Fast forward to Oscar night when the envelopes could potentially read Birdman as winner Picture and/or Director because we KNOW that there is such support for Birdman due to the actual wins.
Now imagine this whole scenario in reverse (what actually seems to be happening). Its just crazy to me how close this race seems, but ALSO how perception can be changed with the slightest change of wind or the smallest win/loss somewhere.
We still don’t know what will win. But I think its fascinating that we have a race where Birdman is the sliiiiiiiight favorite even with wins for PGA/DGA/SAG … But …if Boyhood had won those by the smallest of margins possible … It would be the resounding favorite … and we’d never know that if it won, it would be BARELY and not in some runaway. Sunday will be a real nailbiter.
Everytime I recall there was a split Picture-Director, the best film won director but lost picture, with the exception of Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan… and I know I am in the minority on that one.
Also, advocacy. Keep the fire burning, Sasha. Keep reminding people that Boyhood is the Best Picture of 2014 (not my opinion, but the opinion of many others, as we know). Keep that idea in their heads. They might just vote for it if you do that. Stick to your guns, girl.
What’s weird on gold derby is BP is divided 13/13 but Birdman is favoured for director 16/10
Isn’t a split more likely to be Birdman/Linklater?
I went for an American Sniper sweep (6 out of 6), due to how hot the film has been during voting time, plus the yihadist attacks in France and Denmark which has made the subject, probably the most talked about theme out of the 8 films nominated. I don’t want it to happen, at all, but I’m afraid American Sniper is going to crash the Oscars.
Went for Boyhood winnind Director and Supporting Actress, Birdman winnin Original Screenplay, Grand Budapest Hotel taking 3 technicals (Costume, Art Direction and Make Up) and Imitation Game winning Score. Glory defeating Lego’s, so Selma is presented with a final insult, being “Academy Award winner… for Best Original Song”. Ida winning its two nominations, Whiplash taking home Supporting Actor, Moore finally winning, and Interstellar taking Visual Effects. Citizenfour wins Doc and Dragon 2, wins animated.
I must say, that out of all that I’ve metioned, I’d be only happy with Grand Budapest’s and Boyhood’s wins, along with Citizenfour (even if technically it’s not a documentary but a document itself). Oh, and Moore’s, but for her, not for the perfornance as I still haven’t seen it. I don’t think Simmons or Cooper deserve the Oscar. Cooper doesn’t even deserve the nom.
I’m still a little surprised that Sasha hasn’t changed prediction for BP. Two articles in two days on how Birdman is winning, yet the prediction doesn’t reflect that. I don’t get the willing to be wrong for the film you love concept, when you’re an expert in predicting.
What hasn’t been analysed enough is the issue of momentum- Birdman has picked up a head of steam whilst Boyhood has faded. This should impact the undecided as the bandwagon/want to be on the winning side effect.
What has also not been mentioned was the erroneous conclusion, made by most pundits, that Birdman was too divisive to win, yet it won PGA on a preferential ballot. Also the groupthink of all pundits on Boyhood that hasn’t shaken for most despite all the guilds.
After Sunday, we will be saying either:
1. Listen to the Guilds folks, or
2. You need an editing nomination folks!
@ Q Mark
AMPAS won’t allow any ties in Best Picture
http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-academy-promises-no-best-picture-tie-unlike-pga/
Is a Best Picture tie possible under Academy rules? I know other categories can tie, but I thought there was some procedure in place for an ultimate tiebreaker for BP if things somehow end up completely deadlocked. Fingers crossed it’s “Linklater and AGI play rock-paper-scissors.”
I mean it’s close obviously–Birdman is not your typical Academy movie (but it is about actors) and neither is Boyhood. That’s what’s confusing me so much.
This is why this year’s race has turned out to be so fascinating. This isn’t your standard battle of a studio Oscar movie against a quirky indie darling….it’s TWO indie darlings as frontrunners, I suspect a lot of Academy members are scratching their heads that either will win their precious Best Picture award. There was definitely room for your usual Oscar-bait type of film to split the difference, except all of the candidates (Theory, Imitation Game, American Sniper) were just too mediocre and generic…if any of those films had been even a 3.5/5 instead of 2/5 movies, one of them would’ve won.
“On another note, had ONE PGA out of 6000+ members ranked Gravity one notch higher than 12 Years, 12 Years would have won ZERO guild awards last year going to the Oscars.”
Had Brad Pitt failed to cast his vote 15 minutes before the deadline we would have had that ZERO guild awards for 12 Years. That’s interesting to see how the producer of the film basically awarded himself and a year later people are speculating about zero guild for Boyhood. All because of Mr Pitt late vote… Thanks Angelina! I’m sure all this is her fault, she should have not remember him to vote (kidding).
@Lig A.
I think the reason that there are 13 predictors standing by Boyhood is the fact that it won both BAFTA and BFCA awards for Best Film or Picture. In the eight cases where the BAFTA and BFCA agreed on the choices (since 2001, the year BAFTA moved from April to February) only Brokeback Mountain lost the Best Picture Oscar while winning BAFTA/BFCA. That winning combination has almost the exact predicting power of PGA/SAG/DGA (roughly 88%). The catch is that BFCA has no voting participation in the actual voting. There are roughly 500 BAFTA members that are also part of the 6000 AMPAS members (eight percent overlap). On the other hand PGA/SAG/DGA represent between 25-30 percent of AMPAS. Bigger overlap means better sample of AMPAS’s vote as a whole (generally).
Whoooo! Finally voted predictions. Feels good to get that off my chest.
At this point, I want a massive surprise of Grand Budapest Hotel to do it.
BUT I THINK it’ll still be Boyhood still.
It’d be great if the Academy gets over the days of matching everything the guilds set before it.
I’ve been an Oscar fanatic since The Artist year in 2011, and I just looked at GoldDerby’s Experts ranking and guess what? Birdman and Boyhood both have 13 votes. Boy isn’t that fucked up?
I wonder, with all the guild wins Birdman got, why is it still not a definitive frontrunner according to the predictors who mostly get their BP right every year (last year the majority went with 12 Years, then the previous year Argo, and then the previous years The Artist and The King’s Speech)? I’m assuming that they’re not being stubborn and keep sticking with Boyhood despite its losses at the guilds, because they really don’t seem to be that way. So…that’s what brings me to the conclusion that they’re probably knowing something we’re not from speaking personally with the voters…I mean, for this kind of 13-13 experts split to happen, they must be getting the impression that it’s a really, really close race, or they’d have all switched to Birdman, right? Last year, after the 12 Years’ BP win at BAFTA, the majority decided to support 12 Years for BP and most chose to embrace the split scenario, which had been constant through the year (12 Years Picture and Gravity Director).
For starters, Director this year is weird. Linklater won pretty much everything else but Innaritu took DGA. Then we have an even more confusing BP race which features two seeming frontrunners. But really, in a race, I’m sensing that it’s really possible for something else to steal the big prize.
Alan: Good point. I mean it’s close obviously–Birdman is not your typical Academy movie (but it is about actors) and neither is Boyhood. That’s what’s confusing me so much.
“On another note, had ONE PGA out of 6000+ members ranked Gravity one notch higher than 12 Years, 12 Years would have won ZERO guild awards last year going to the Oscars.”
I’m tired of this argument, Alan… so, fine! I guess the triple crown is twice less powerful because of that. You go ahead and predict Boyhood based on that “one more theoretical vote” theory! Good luck, sir!
“The closest thing you get to right this year are the people who thought Boyhood was “soft” – like Tapley and Hammond and those guys.”
Hey, me too. 🙂 Here’s what I wrote on September 26th, the first time I was asked to give my predictions this year, here at AD (or anywhere):
“Boyhood – I don’t think they like Linklater’s style enough to give it BP, despite its strong RT score. Birdman looks much more up their alley – but a movie about actors/movies again? Like, 3 times in 5 years? Seems a bit too much. […] The Imitation Game I figured had a good shot, but now I’m thinking it’s a bit baity, and I’m looking at its RT, and it’s early days, but already 4 negative reviews… […] So, OK, I guess for me the most likely right now is Gone Girl – followed by, I guess, The Imitation Game (so I’ll at least have one backup). Third is probably Birdman, but I don’t know… And I’m sure there’s loads of stuff I’m not taking into consideration – which is why, like I said, I don’t really do such early predictions. 🙂 These are guesses, at best.”
So, while I was far from having Birdman as THE favorite (and my top 2 favorites – still have no idea why I put TIG 2nd, even though I didn’t think it was likely – both did pretty terribly), I did think it was AMONG the favorites, and definitely thought Boyhood wasn’t their kind of movie. I definitely thought Boyhood was less likely than Birdman. Sight unseen, of course…
The other movies I considered in that post, and dismissed, for various reasons, were: Interstellar, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Into the Woods, Unbroken, Foxcatcher, The Theory of Everything, Mr. Turner, The Grand Budapest Hotel. I didn’t consider Whiplash, American Sniper and Selma (but, when Selma came into the discussion, I did think it didn’t stand much of a chance due to them having just awarded a racial discrimination movie the year before), of the movies that would be nominated.
“Pete Hammond says that a lot of voters he talked to haven’t cast their ballots yet, and the Academy is so aware of that that emails from the president, Halle Berry and Anna Paquin were sent to the members who haven’t voted yet. Glimmer of hope? Could it be a sign that things aren’t THAT settled yet?”
They’re all the more likely to vote for Birdman, in order to be on the winning side, now, as it’s just pretty much swept the guilds. And, again, no reason to be sick of it. It’s only been the favorite for less than two weeks, and even lost the BAFTA since then.
why boyhood appears as frontrunner and has a red + as winner of the DGA?
Mistake.
This reminds me of the Beautiful Mind/Fellowship of the Ring discussions. We kept saying that it was inconceivable that the Academy would overlook a far better reviewed and popular film, but Sasha kept reminding us about the guilds. No guilds/no BP. Last May I would never have believed that Boyhood would make it this far.
This isn’t about predicting who wins.
“BAFTA is helpful because there’s overlap, but even the social network pulled off a best director win there and still got steamrolled at the Oscars. Still, bafta shows that it’s not a runaway.”
Up until the last two years, the relevant branches voted for the winners not the whole Academy members at BAFTA, except for best picture and best acting. That’s why Fincher won. The directors voted for it. Had it been the whole membership voting, TKS’s Hooper would have won, like at the Oscars.
On another note, had ONE PGA out of 6000+ members ranked Gravity one notch higher than 12 Years, 12 Years would have won ZERO guild awards last year going to the Oscars.
Just saying. Not making a case for either win. My prediction model says it’s too close to call, but it does have both Boyhood and Linklater slightly ahead. There’s something to be said about a movie with PGA SAG DGA winning combination, yet half of the experts still calling for the other movie.
P. S. I’ve been traveling in the past week and will be in the next 2 so I haven’t had time to post. But I’ve been reading whenever I can can get to the Internet. Can’t stay away from Sasha. Love her!
why boyhood appears as frontrunner and has a red + as winner of the DGA?
This is a really competitive year. I went with a picture/director split. I also don’t think that any of the films up will get anywhere near a sweep. The most awards any single movie will walk away with this year is 3.
I don’t buy the Globes loss or the lack of Editing nod as evidence. If they like it they will vote for it even if the editors didn’t nominate it. See argo and the lack of BD nod. And HFPA has zero AMPAS overlap. They’re not helpful gauges.
BAFTA is helpful because there’s overlap, but even the social network pulled off a best director win there and still got steamrolled at the Oscars. Still, bafta shows that it’s not a runaway.
Lastly there’s no way they can split– it would require a very large chunk to unite behind one movie and with six others it unlikely. I think the expansion makes a split unlikely because there are too many movies to vote for not just one or two that they could rally behind
@JulieF – Even if Birdman wins Best Film and Director, I think there are so many films equally liked this year that I can easily see Birdman losing Best Actor and Best Screenplay. Birdman can win Cinematography which is likely. I think the Academy and actors like Theory of Everything enough to award Eddie Redmayne. And I think Budapest is loved enough to give it Original Screenplay and Music (and most likely Costumes, Production Design and Hair and Makeup). Boyhood, Supporting Actress and Editing, even if it doesn’t get Picture or Director. If Whiplash and American Sniper get Sound awards, Selma gets song and Imitation Game gets Adapted Screenplay, then all the Best Picture nominees will win at least one award. Which would be fine by me.
Pete Hammond says that a lot of voters he talked to haven’t cast their ballots yet, and the Academy is so aware of that that emails from the president, Halle Berry and Anna Paquin were sent to the members who haven’t voted yet. Glimmer of hope? Could it be a sign that things aren’t THAT settled yet?
Allow me to put forward a preemptive theory on what happened with the actors if Boyhood wins on Sunday night. The SAG ensemble award is not the same as Best Picture. I have voted differently on that in the past than what I would choose for BP if I were in the Academy. Moreover, Birdman features several “showy” performances AND it’s about actors, and that combination is catnip to the SAG voting body. Finally, Birdman’s ensemble probably is more impressive than Boyhood’s by any objective measure: a) it’s larger, and b) Boyhood’s is marred by an unfortunately subpar performance from its lead.
And – if you’ll allow me to get a bit catty – the SAG voting body is by-and-large not as experienced as the Actor’s block within the Academy. It features a large number of voters who might be swayed by something “flashier” and who might not have the experience within the industry to realize what a rare feat Boyhood really is.
Um, editing is more than the cuts. It is adjusting for mistakes along the way, and enhancing the film. There may be minimal cuts because of BM’s nature, but minimal still can achieve a nomination. Hell, The Artist got a writing nomination with about two dozen words to its dialogue.
I had to pick Birdman for picture, but my heart wouldn’t let me pick Innaritu for director. I couldn’t, just couldn’t believe that they would let Richard Linklater go home empty-handed for his wonderful movie. I also could not reconcile the guild love for Birdman with the fact that Keaton and the screenplay are losing steam.
I have Birdman and Inarritu in other pools, including the only one that I bet money on (just $10), but I would rather lose than win.
I kinda feel bad for you that you have to watch the show live. I would not want to. Sometimes I combat my nervousness by starting an hour to an hour and a half late and speeding through some of it.
Predicting means who you think WILL win, not who you WANT/SHOULD win. Gold Derby/Gurus of Gold is predicting who will win. There’s nothing wrong with changing your pick if that’s the vibe you’re getting from the AMPAS voters, that doesn’t mean you agree with it. When it comes time to Final Prediction, give picks on WILL and SHOULD win. We all know you want BH to win, I go here for updates on who’s most likely to win.
As far as rationalizing Birdman won’t win BP because it doesn’t have an editing nomination as last time it happened was Ordinary People in 1981, it’s flawed here as the whole premise of BM is lots of long takes whereby minimal editing is needed, it was never going to get any consideration for editing. That’s a lot different than a “standard” edited movie not getting nominated.
Birdman is obviously the best movie. I’ll be shocked if it does not win.
If Birdman had got an editing nom, honestly I’d say it’s a done deal and Inarritu would be coming for the whole thing. The editing thing combined with losing the Globes to Budapest and the BAFTA to Boyhood weakens its position as an easy call. But Boyhood lost EVERY guild, so…..
Birdman took the guilds. Boyhood took the Globes, the BAFTAs and the critics. It definitely tips in Birdman’s favor but Boyhood wouldn’t exactly be an unheard of upset either. I really, truly hope there isn’t a split this year. Sick of splits.
Top Prizes Awarded:
Birdman – PGA/DGA/SAG/ASC/AFI/Satellite
Boyhood – Globes/BAFTA/ACE/BFCA/NYFCC/NYFCO/LAFCA/AFI
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Globes/WGA
The Imitation Game – WGA/Scripter/Toronto People’s Choice/AFI
Or you don’t know which will win and instead of going all in on one, you are basically making two predictions. If Boyhood wins, you can show everyone you called it all along, but if Birdman wins, you can still tell people I told you so. Just choose the films you think will win and be done with it.
“Why would that be meaningful in any way? … That’s sort of like seeing that it’s raining outside and declaring, it’s raining. So I don’t want to change my prediction now, that’s one reason.”
I cannot understand this. This poses as non-explanation for me. “Why would that be meaningful in any way?” Because predicting in accordance with the guilds indicates that you think they have the potential to swing the Oscar race in a significant way in contrast to the way the year looked earlier. Sasha you have always warned us that the Guilds could change everything, and in this case, they have. That’s why it would be meaningful to switch predictions now. I’m not saying you should pick Birdman, but if you’re predicting Boyhood, own it, say it’s a close call, and a bit risky, but that over 50% of you thinks Boyhood will win. What you are actually “showing us” is that you don’t think the Guilds matter sufficiently in this case. Which is interesting, and worth saying.
I’m hoping for a three-way split (Inarritu-Linklater-Anderson in Picture-Director-Original Screenplay), but it’s highly unlikely. Whoever wins Picture, which is probably Birdman, wins Director, I’m afraid. So the risk of seeing Linklater and maybe even Wes Anderson go home empty-handed is huge, and that would be the definitive end of any hope for a quality Oscar edition.
Still wondering how they can have come up with a year like 2006, where the race was between There Will Be Blood and No Country For Old Men.
I just couldn’t. I couldn’t place Birdman as picture / director. Boyhood it is. But then, if the Academy does this, how do they not give it to Keaton? So Keaton too.