Predicting Cannes

Nathaniel over at The Film Experience has a list of the films he think will do well on Sunday. Check it out. It’s easy for us to fall into the trap of thinking the Palme will go to the films we hear the most about in the press, which usually means films that have the highest wattage of star power. If you read most of the mainstream press, the Palme d’Or is down to Che or Changeling and just because the critics were so-so on the former and very positive on the latter doesn’t mean that’s how the Cannes jury will decide it. Here is how Nat thinks it will go:

Palme D’Or, Jury Prize and Direction? Who knows what Sean Penn, Natalie Portman, Alfonso Cuaron and those international directors will groove on. Wild guesswork here but I’m predicting that the Palme D’Or goes to Matteo Garrone’s Gomorrah (pictured right) the director prize to Steven Soderbergh for Che and the Jury Prize to either Waltz with Bashir or Linha de Passe
Best Actor? Benicio Del Toro’s 4 hour biopic performance in Che seems likely as a winner but then, jury prizes aren’t strict or easily guessed at. One could see a dual prize for both him and Demian Bichir (as Fidel Castro) if the jury likes the film. Other possibilities: Fran√ßois Begaudeau (Entre Les Murs), Toni Servillo (Il Divo) or the cast in Linha de Passe?
Best Actress? Angelina Jolie’s Changeling mother won expected raves. She’s already an international icon but can she join the exclusive list of Cannes Best Actress winners? Her competition: Maybe Martina Gusman (Leonara) or the female cast of Synechdoche New York?

I don’t see how Benicio doesn’t get this either. But Philip Seymour Hoffman could also be a surprise winner. Changeling is going to do well with the US awards circuit but will it take the Palme?