Ledger for Lead?

Kris Tapley over at Incontention makes the bold prediction that Heath Ledger may be in line not for a supporting nod but for lead. I am a pessimist by nature and thus, my reaction to this is supporting, yes, lead, no. This is an extremely competitive category. And it has been, in recent years, overcrowded, so overcrowded that many of the best performances did not or could not make the cut. Supporting is different. It was brought up in the comments that it must not be too early to call Heath Ledger the winner when people were already calling Javier Bardem the winner at this time last year. Here is the main difference: Bardem’s character was not A) a comic book character, B) in a summer blockbuster but rather in a Coen brothers movie, C) a complete original. Heath will be getting great reviews, no doubt. But he is still playing a character who has already been played by Jack Nicholson. Those are some big differences. Still, never say never. It’s interesting to speculate, particularly when none of the Big Oscar Movies have turned out yet.