As promised, here is the annual comparison of just what the NBR has meant to Oscar over the past few years. First off, the winner of the NBR’s Best Pic has gone on to be nominated every year for the past eight years.¬† You have to go back to Quills to find one that didn’t. And even with the occasional film that doesn’t land in the top five their track record is pretty darned good.
A Best Pic chart after the jump.
NBR Best Pic | Oscar Best Pic
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men (4/5) |
| 2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima | The Departed (4/5) |
| 2005 | Good Night, and Good Luck | Crash (5/5) |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | Million Dollar Baby (5/5) |
| 2003 | Mystic River | Return of the King (4/5) |
| 2002 | The Hours | Chicago (4/5) |
| 2001 | Moulin Rouge | A Beautiful Mind (2/5) |
| 2000 | Quills | Gladiator (2/5) |
| 1999 | American Beauty | American Beauty (2/5) |
| 1998 | Gods and Monsters | Shakespeare in Love (4/5) |
| 1997 | L.A. Confidential | Titanic (5/5) |
| 1996 | Shine | The English Patient (5/5) |
| 1995 | Sense and Sensibility | Braveheart (3/5) |
| 1994 | Pulp Fiction and Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump (5/5) |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List |
Schindler’s List (4/5) |
| 1992 | Howards End | Unforgiven (5/5) |
| 1991 | Silence of the Lambs | Silence of the Lambs (2/5) |
| 1990 | Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves (3/5) |
| 1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy (5/5) |
| 1988 | Mississippi Burning | Rain Man (2/5) |
| 1987 | Empire of the Sun | The Last Emperor (4/5) |
| 1986 | A Room with a View | Platoon (5/5) |
| 1985 | The Color Purple | Out of Africa (5/5) |
| 1984 | A Passage to India | Amadeus (4/5) |
| 1983 | Betrayal | Terms of Endearment (5/5) |
| 1982 | Gandhi | Gandhi (5/5) |
| 1981 | Chariots of Fire | Chariots of Fire (5/5) |
| 1980 | Ordinary People | Ordinary People (5/5) |
| 1979 | Manhattan | Kramer Vs. Kramer (3/5) |
| 1978 | Days of Heaven | The Deer Hunter (3/5) |
| 1977 | The Turning Point | Annie Hall(4/5) |
| 1976 | All the President’s Men | Rocky (3/5) |
| 1975 | Nashville/Barry Lyndon | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest (4/5) |
| 1974 | The Conversation | Godfather II (3/5) |
| 1973 | The Sting | The Sting (1/5) |
| 1972 | Cabaret | The Godfather (4/5) |
| 1971 | MacBeth | The French Connection (3/5) |
| 1970 | Patton | Patton (3/5) |
| 1969 | They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? | Midnight Cowboy (2/5) |
| 1968 | The Shoes of the Fisherman | Oliver(4/5) |
| 1967 | Far from the Madding Crowd | In Heat of the Night (2/5) |
| 1966 | A Man for All Seasons | A Man for all Seasons (4/5) |
| 1965 | The Eleanor Roosevelt Story | the Sound of Music(5/5) |
| 1964 | Becket | My Fair Lady (3/5) |
| 1963 | Tom Jones | Tom Jones (3/3) |
| 1962 | The Longest Day | Lawrence of Arabia (2/5) |
| 1961 | Question 7 | West Side Story(4/5) |
| 1960 | Sons and Lovers | The Apartment(5/5) |
| 1959 | The Nun’s Story | Ben Hur(4/5) |
| 1958 | The Old Man and the Sea | Gigi(3/5) |
| 1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai | Bridge on the River Kwai (2/5) |
| 1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Around/World in 80 Days (2/5) |
| 1955 | Marty | Marty (4/5) |
| 1954 | On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront (3/5) |
| 1953 | Julius Cesar | From here to Eternity(5/5) |
| 1952 | The Quiet Man | Greatest Show on Earth (1/5) |
| 1951 | A Place in the Sun | An American in Paris (5/5) |
| 1950 | Sunset Boulevard | All About Eve (2/2) |
| 1949 | The Bicycle Thief | All the King’s Men (2/5) |
| 1948 | Paisan | Hamlet (5/5) |
| 1947 | Monsieur Verdoux | Gentlemen’s Agreement(3/5) |
| 1946 | Henry V | The Best Years of Our Lives(2/5) |
| 1945 | The True Glory | The Lost Weekend(1/5) |
| 1944 | None But the Lonely Heart | Going My Way (2/5) |
| 1943 | The Ox-Bow Incident | Casablanca |
| 1942 | In Which We Serve | Mrs. Miniver |
| 1941 | Citizen Kane | How Green was my Valley |
| 1940 | The Grapes of Wrath | Rebecca |
| 1939 | Confessions of a Nazi Spy | Gone with the Wind(for previous year) |
| 1938 | The Citadel | You Can’t Take it With You |
| 1937 | Night Must Fall | The Live of Emile Zola |
| 1936 | Mr. Deeds Goes to Town | The Great Ziegfield |
| 1935 | The Informer | Mutiny on the Bounty |
| 1934 | It Happened One Night | It Happened One Night |
Top ten of 2007
No Country for Old Men*
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
Top ten of 2006
Letters From Iwo Jima
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed*
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags Of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes On A Scandal
The Painted Veil
Top ten films in 2005
Good Night, And Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash*
A History of Violence
Match Point
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana
Walk the Line
Top ten in 2004
1. Finding Neverland
2. The Aviator
3. Closer
4. Million Dollar Baby*
5. Sideways
6. Kinsey
7. Vera Drake
8. Ray
9. Collateral
10. Hotel Rwanda
Top ten films in 2003:
Mystic River
The Last Samurai
The Station Agent
21 Grams
House of Sand and Fog
Lost in Translation
Cold Mountain
In America
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander
At least three of the eventual big five end up on their list and most of the time the winner is buried somewhere in there, very rarely do the two collide, as they did last year with No Country for Old Men. The NBR has taken a lot of heat over the years, with accusations of this or that, but the plain truth of it is, for our purposes, none of that really matters; They are far more mainstream than most other voting bodies, except maybe the BFCA (Critics Choice) or the HFPA (Globes).
For the NBR, there should be a broad-ish sampling of the pics. I like Frozen River for it and think it will make the list – it stands out this year because of the great reviews and that it is one of the very few films to be written and directed by a woman. It stars Melissa Leo who, hands down, gave one of the best female performances of the year. I also expect, even though they haven’t opened yet, Revolutionary Road and Gran Torino to be on there (unless they didn’t screen Gran Torino – but they love them some Eastwood so Changeling might be there instead). Slumdog Millionaire will be there for sure, might even win. I’m also liking Doubt, Milk and The Dark Knight for it, though they don’t really go for the big effects-driven films. Perhaps Defiance, Australia, Frost/Nixon, The Reader — the real question is Benjamin Button – a film that is still a big question mark with critics. My feeling is that the winner is either going to be Milk or Gran Torino. But I’ve never accurately predicted the NBR, so take it with a grain of salt.
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