Pre-G-G-Globes Anxiety

What to say about the Golden Globes? Hopefully there will be no strike and the telecast can move forward this year in all of its cheesy, trashy glory. What films will they choose? They tend to be more artsy than I think people give them credit for.  And since they split their Best Pic nominees between Drama and Comedy, odd titles show up now and again.

Last year, they went with Atonement, Eastern Promises, The Great Debaters, Michael Clayton, No Country and There Will Be Blood. Four out of five of the eventual Best Picture nominees, with the fifth being represented in comedy, Juno. But Charlie Wilson’s War appeared in the comedy section, along with Hairspray, Across the Universe and Sweeney Todd. At the time, most people assumed that Atonement wasn’t headed for Best Picture because one of these other films was bound to take its place.

That will be the trick tomorrow. On the other hand, you can take the stance that they’re roughly 90 to 100 or so foreign press members so what do they know about anything? The Academy, after all, is huge by comparison. What I’ve always seen them as is an Oscars test drive. Voters might not know what they like but they’ll know what they don’t like.

One reason why the HFPA have been more aligned with AMPAS over time is that they don’t really vote like critics. They have categories for musical/comedy, which means that they can cast a wider net. While I’d like to say that the Globes are good for influencing how Oscar votes, that just isn’t really true anymore. One still must suss out the general mood. Usually around this time the film that “the internet” loves is either in or out and by the time we hit the Globes we get the mostly bad news that the movie isn’t as popular as its dramatic competitors. That movie now is The Dark Knight and whether the Globes liked it that much or not remains to be seen.¬† It is just one of the many potential stops along the way, with the DGA being the biggest.

Best Picture, Drama (if they choose six)

Slumdog Millionaire (unless they put it in comedy)
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button
Milk
Either Changeling or Gran Torino
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road

Best Pic Comedy/Musical
Mamma Mia!
Rachel Getting Married (I think it will go in comedy)
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Burn After Reading
Baby Mama

Actor (I can’t choose five):
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Sean Penn, Milk
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Actress:
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Actress, Comedy
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Tina Fey or Amy Pohler or both for Baby Mama
Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex and the City
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr. Tropic Thunder
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin, Milk
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Penelope Cruz
Marisa Tomei
Rosemarie DeWitt

Director
Christopher Nolan
David Fincher
Ron Howard
Danny Boyle
Gus Van Sant

But you know, these predictions really aren’t worth the bandwidth they’re written on. I’d rather hear what you all have to say about the Globes announcement tomorrow.