The Race is On

The Gurus of Gold have posted a recent survey of people who make guesses about how the Oscars are going to turn out. Two films appear to be most highly thought of to win, Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire, while there is some debate about what’s next in line. The interesting thing is that The Dark Knight has jumped to the fifth slot, which shows that many more people are seriously considering the film’s chances where they weren’t before. What does this mean? Well, not much. Blinded guesses at best. Next week, the picture will become more clear, whether it confirms general predictions or not. The DGA and the PGA announce in the New Year and then we’ll know.

In the meantime, the Hollywood Reporter’s Oscar columnist says no way, no how (no McCain) can the Dark Knight ever manage a Best Picture nomination:

– The Dark Knight, the dark horse: It’s a shoo-in for best picture! No, they’ll never nominate it in a million years! The Batman tentpole yielded as many alleged certainties as it did critics’ top 10 spots. Now that the dust has settled, its prospects are where many thought it would be — an Oscar lock for Heath Ledger and an outside shot for director Christopher Nolan.

That’s fine, I can accept that. In fact, it’s the norm that the Academy misses the boat more often than not when it comes to finding the best picture of the year — the last two years have been a respite and if the Dark Knight is snubbed this year it would be mostly in keeping with their history, especially since it’s the dreaded “comic book movie,” and the even more dreaded “Batman movie.” And it’s a sequel. And some people think it wasn’t that good. My thinking on this is if The Fugitive could get nominated and Tommy Lee Jones could win a Supporting Actor Oscar for it, The Dark Knight should not only be nominated but it should be one of the frontrunners to take it home. Why? Because it made upwards of $550 $530 million domestically, because it is a dark tale, brilliantly directed, with a memorable turn by Heath Ledger. But you don’t want to hear all of this because you’ve heard it all by now. So let’s move on to the race as it stands.

Nobody knows anything. Not right now anyway. We’re dealing with a lot of opinions out there. What we do know is that there is only one movie at this moment that appeals across the board to the majority: Slumdog Millionaire. How does any film beat it? It appeals to the heart and to whitey/western guilt – it is Dickensian, directed by the genius Danny Boyle. Two possible turn-offs — one, no major American stars. The last time a film like that won Best Pic was The Last Emperor and even that one was a sweeping epic and had Peter O’Toole in it. Two, subtitles. That didn’t stop Schindler’s List from getting nominated, and weren’t there subtitles in The English Patient? Both The Last Emperor and The English Patient remind me of Slumdog’s chances in this race. All three films have an inevitability about them, partly because they have no viable challengers. No film came remotely close to beating The English Patient and The Last Emperor.

The Last Emperor might have been challenged by Broadcast News but that was a dreaded comedy and anyway, Jim Brooks had already won for Terms of Endearment, but the epic was fated to win. The other nominees were Fatal Attraction (now, you tell me, this movie can get nominated but The Dark Knight can’t?), Moonstruck, and Hope and Glory.

The English Patient was up against Fargo, Gerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies and Shine. Again, the epic takes it. The film with no major stars (at the time) was Secrets & Lies, and everyone was in love with that movie, though not to the degree they appear to be responding to Slumdog.

Now, the question becomes whether Slumdog is the epic or not. Benjamin Button is still the epic in the woodpile but it doesn’t appear to have universal appeal, and seems to be a love it/hate it thing, which makes it a slightly longer shot. And then there is The Dark Knight, which could have more broad appeal within the Academy, even if you take out the directors and actors, because together they make up around 2,000 total, give or take a few hundred. That still leaves many votes up for grabs. If The Dark Knight comes in as the most nominated film, beating the favorite for this, Benjamin Button, you are looking at your new frontrunner. It’s way too early to say that because no one even knows if it will be nominated (an epic fail if it isn’t).

How it will probably stack up, nominations-wise:

Benjamin Button should lead with nominations in:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor OR Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Screenplay
Cinematography
Costumes
Score
Art Direction
Visual Effects
Makeup
Sound
Editing (maybe)
So 13 possible, and even if you take off Actor or Actress you have 12.

Next up, could be Doubt, which stands to earn:

Doubt
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actress
Art Direction
Score
Screenplay
Cinematography
Costumes (maybe)
That’s 12 possible, and if you take off costumes, it’s 11. Still a lot.

Next up, should it be nominated, The Dark Knight:
Picture
Director
Supporting Actor
Screenplay (maybe)
Editing
Sound
Score
Visual Effects
Makeup
Sound Editing
Cinematography

That’s 11 possible nominations.

Frost/Nixon
Picture
Actor
Director
Screenplay
Art Direction
Score
Editing
Cinematography (maybe)

7 or 8 possible.

Slumdog Millionaire:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Supporting Actor (or maybe Lead Actor) Dev Patel
Editing (should get)
Score
Cinematography

7 Nominations (more typical of a winner these days)

Milk:
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Editing (maybe)
Cinematography (maybe)
6 or 7 Nominations possible

The rest of the possibles, like Wall-E, The Wrestler, Revolutionary Road, Rachel Getting Married, are all possible for smaller groupings of nods, like four or five at the most.

That is how it stands. Best Picture isn’t always shaped by the various branches who support the film that best highlights their craft, but it helps. Counting them out this way, appears to favor Doubt for a Best Pic slot, even though it’s dipping somewhat in the blind guesses made by people who make guesses for a living.

But of course, it could all change on a dime and we’ll know more as the guilds make their submissions in the coming month.