10th Annual No Guts, No Glory

This is the big one, well, second to the big one, which will happen about a month from now. Let’s talk upsets. Please list only three or less. And make them really out there, not alternates. Mickey Rourke being nominated for Best Actor is not a No Guts pick, neither is Richard Jenkins, for that matter. Robert Downey, Jr. for Iron Man IS.

Here are mine:

The Dark Knight is nominated only for Supporting Actor (after which, semi-notable Oscar blogger jumps out of a fifth story window).
Jonathan Demme is nominated for Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet is shut out of both lead and supporting.

Now, it’s your turn. We’ll have to go over these after tomorrow’s announcement. Meanwhile, here are EW’s Dave Karger’s top ten potential stunners (I forgot to mention him in the Oscar bloggers post – he has been way on top of it this year):

1. The Reader or Gran Torino sneak into Best Picture over The Dark Knight.
2. Richard Jenkins bumps Brad Pitt out of Best Actor.
3. Melissa Leo snags Angelina Jolie’s Best Actress slot.
4. Voters ignore Kate Winslet’s supporting-actress campaign and nominate her for Best Actress for The Reader, leaving Revolutionary Road out of the acting races completely.
5. Dev Patel scores a Best Actor nod instead of landing in the supporting category.
6. The Dark Knight trumps The Reader in the adapted-screenplay race.
7. Doubt scores four acting nods after all, as Amy Adams pushes Taraji P. Henson out of supporting actress.
8. Happy-Go-Lucky‘s Mike Leigh displaces Ron Howard or Gus Van Sant in Best Director.
9. Milk takes two supporting-actor slots and leaves Robert Downey, Jr., in the cold.

And finally…
10. Slumdog Millionaire tops Benjamin Button and scores the most overall nominations.