SAG Preview

The Screen Actors Guild have not had the best track record with predicting winners. In fact, you can’t entirely go on the SAG any more than you can the Globes, by and large. The SAG has a gigantic membership and half the time they reflect the more popular vote, like Johnny Depp winning for Pirates of the Caribbean. In the past few years, Best Actor and Actress were pretty much locked in and this rhythm repeated itself all the way to the Oscars. This year, for many reasons, the race seems to be wide open. Of course, we could be looking at Slumdog, Danny Boyle, Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz. Or not.

Will the SAG go that way? They have Kate times two so how they’ll go won’t directly reflect how the Oscars are going to go. Having in supporting for The Reader means she’ll probably win that for the SAG while someone else has a chance of not only winning the SAG but giving a good enough speech to up her chances at stealing the prize from Kate for lead actress (though I seriously doubt, at this rate, anyone can). And it isn’t even so much about the performances — the awards race is 90% of the time a popularity contest. Winslet has it all this year, nothing stands in her way.

So let’s take a look at these SAGs may go down. I will be adding the predictions of others as the day progresses so keep checking back — this post will be a sticky. The SAGs are, I believe, tape-delayed so our dear Ryan will have the job of listing the winners as they air on the East Coast Sunday.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
RICHARD JENKINS / Walter Vale Р“THE VISITOR” (Overture Films)
FRANK LANGELLA / Richard Nixon Р“FROST/NIXON” (Universal Pictures)
SEAN PENN / Harvey Milk Р“MILK” (Focus Features)
BRAD PITT / Benjamin Button Р“THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON” (Paramount Pictures)
MICKEY ROURKE / Randy Р“THE WRESTLER” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

This could go three ways, four if you count Langella as a possibility. The most likely scenario is Sean Penn. His performance was an actor’s dream and he nailed it. But also, this would be his first SAG win. That’s not to be taken lightly. He also happens to be the most admired actor of the five. Mickey Rourke is the next strongest contender because he is on roll. Finally, in a fluke Brad Pitt could win. Here’s why Pitt is a threat – he is best friends with George Clooney and they are among a very friendly and wide circle — they are the popular crowd. Think about how far reaching that group is – it extends through the Oceans 11 cast, through the Coens cliques, through Julia Roberts and her ilk. Add to that, Pitt’s Father of the Year image, the doting, helpful, devoted husband and father. Finally, his Benjamin Button is heartbreaking and lovable. I’m not saying I would predict him to win but I am saying he’s a potential threat.
Expected Winner: Sean Penn, Milk
Predicted Winner: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
ANNE HATHAWAY / Kym Р“RACHEL GETTING MARRIED” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ANGELINA JOLIE / Christine Collins Р“CHANGELING” (Universal Pictures)
MELISSA LEO / Ray Eddy Р“FROZEN RIVER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
MERYL STREEP / Sister Aloysius Beauvier Р“DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
KATE WINSLET / April Wheeler Р“REVOLUTIONARY ROAD” (Paramount Vantage)
This is a tough one. I think there is a great many of them that are going to want to award either Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway — I would die if it was Melissa Leo. I would just die. But it probably won’t happen. Hurting Streep is that these actors are theater geeks, many of them, and they might think Cherry Jones was better — still I have to think that the Queen of all Actors will get chosen here.
Expected Winner: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Predicted Winner: Meryl Streep, Doubt

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JOSH BROLIN / Dan White Р“MILK” (Focus Features)
ROBERT DOWNEY, JR. / Kirk Lazarus Р“TROPIC THUNDER” (Paramount Pictures)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Father Brendan Flynn Р“DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
HEATH LEDGER / Joker Р“THE DARK KNIGHT” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
DEV PATEL / Older Jamal Р“SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
I still think Heath has this in the bag. The stink of the Oscar snub-ol-a hadn’t yet hit when it was time to vote for these. The only person who could possibly upset Heath, I still think is Robert Downey, Jr.
Predicted Winner: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
AMY ADAMS / Sister James Р“DOUBT” (Miramax Flms)
PENÉLOPE CRUZ / Maria Elena Р“VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA” (The Weinstein Company)
VIOLA DAVIS / Mrs. Miller Р“DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
TARAJI P. HENSON / Queenie Р“THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON” (Paramount Pictures)
KATE WINSLET / Hanna Schmitz Р“THE READER” (The Weinstein Company)
I think Kate has this way in the bag, which doesn’t help us come Oscar time. Another scenario is that Penelope Cruz wins here and then Kate wins lead — or Kate wins both. You really can’t compare Penelope Cruz with Kate Winslet, though. Not performance-wise. However, let’s take a moment to appreciate the extraordinary good luck (if it was luck) of the Weinstein Co. because now, with the Oscar race, they have two potential wins in the actress categories.
Predicted Winner: Kate Winslet, The Reader

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
DOUBT (Miramax)
FROST/NIXON (Universal Pictures)
MILK (Focus Features)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (Paramount Pictures)

This is a tough one. I think Doubt wins here but Frost/Nixon or Button or Milk especially could win.¬†¬† Milk is a true ensemble piece with many great performances so it’s down to those two.
Predicted Winner: Milk

PRIMETIME TELEVISION
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
RALPH FIENNES / Bernard Lafferty Р“BERNARD AND DORIS” (HBO)
PAUL GIAMATTI / John Adams Р“JOHN ADAMS” (HBO)
KEVIN SPACEY / Ron Klain Р“RECOUNT” (HBO)
KIEFER SUTHERLAND / Jack Bauer Р“24: REDEMPTION” (FOX)
TOM WILKINSON / Benjamin Franklin Р“JOHN ADAMS” (HBO)
Predicted Winner – Paul Giamatti

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
LAURA DERN / Katherine Harris Р“RECOUNT” (HBO)
LAURA LINNEY / Abigail Adams Р“JOHN ADAMS” (HBO)
SHIRLEY MacLAINE / Coco Chanel Р“COCO CHANEL” (Lifetime)
PHYLICIA RASHAD / Lena Younger Р“A RAISIN IN THE SUN” (Lifetime)
SUSAN SARANDON / Doris Duke Р“BERNARD AND DORIS” (HBO)
Predicted Winner: Laura Linney

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
MICHAEL C. HALL / Dexter Morgan Р“DEXTER” (Showtime)
JON HAMM / Don Draper Р“MAD MEN” (AMC)
HUGH LAURIE / Gregory House Р“HOUSE” (FOX)
WILLIAM SHATNER / Denny Crane Р“BOSTON LEGAL” (ABC)
JAMES SPADER / Alan Shore Р“BOSTON LEGAL” (ABC)
Predicted Winner – Jon Hamm

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
SALLY FIELD / Nora Walker Р“BROTHERS & SISTERS” (ABC)
MARISKA HARGITAY / Det. Olivia Benson Р“LAW & ORDER: SPECIAL VICTIMS UNIT” (NBC)
HOLLY HUNTER / Grace Hanadarko Р“SAVING GRACE” (TNT)
ELISABETH MOSS / Peggy Olson Р“MAD MEN” (AMC)
KYRA SEDGWICK / Dep. Chief Brenda Johnson Р“THE CLOSER” (TNT)
Predicted winner: Kyra Sedgwick (I have no idea who will win this)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy Р“30 ROCK” (NBC)
STEVE CARELL / Michael Scott Р“THE OFFICE” (NBC)
DAVID DUCHOVNY / Hank Moody Р“CALIFORNICATION” (Showtime)
JEREMY PIVEN / Ari Gold Р“ENTOURAGE” (HBO)
TONY SHALHOUB / Adrian Monk Р“MONK” (USA)
Predicted winner: Alec Baldwin

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE / Samantha Newly Р“SAMANTHA WHO?” (ABC)
AMERICA FERRERA / Betty Suarez Р“UGLY BETTY” (ABC)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon Р“30 ROCK” (NBC)
MARY-LOUISE PARKER / Nancy Botwin Р“WEEDS” (Showtime)
TRACEY ULLMAN / Various Characters Р“TRACEY ULLMAN’S STATE OF THE UNION” (Showtime)
Predicted Winner: Tina Fey

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
BOSTON LEGAL (ABC)
DEXTER (Showtime)
HOUSE (Fox)
MAD MEN (AMC)
THE CLOSER (TNT)
Predicted Winner: Mad Men

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 ROCK (NBC)
DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES (ABC)
ENTOURAGE (HBO)
THE OFFICE (NBC)
WEEDS (Showtime)
Predicted Winner: 30 Rock