A couple of last minute changes …

Daniel Kenealy, February 22 (Oscar-day!)

As we all know the categories that frequently remain the most frustrating for prognosticators desperately seeking that perfect score of 24 are the ‘restricted categories’ for foreign language films, documentaries, and shorts. This year is no different. Now, at the eleventh hour I have decided to revisit foreign language film and am changing my prediction from ‘The Class’ to ‘Departures’.

Two words capture the reason for my change of heart: Kris Tapley. His commentary on the race this year has been first rate and he has put forth a very articulate and very convincing explanation as to why the presumed frontrunner ‘Waltz with Bashir’ may stumble and why, in the event that it does, ‘Departures’ stands the best chance of benefiting.

Kris wrote of ‘Departures’: “it’s the kind of soft, safe, solid work that tends to take out the frontrunner in this category time and again.” Furthermore: “It deals with death in a really affecting way, at once eerie, humorous and, ultimately, moving. When it threatens to pass into trite territory, it finds a way to stay fresh and alive, very human and absolutely satisfying … When you look back over the history of this category, you see a certain bias against non-traditional filmmaking.” ‘Waltz with Bashir’ would be a very non-traditional winner here: it’s Israeli, it’s animated, and it’s a documentary.

Of course I needed little convincing that ‘Bashir’ was vulnerable, by why change from ‘The Class’? Again, largely thanks to Kris’ analysis. He brought to my attention the following by Pete Hammond: “Some voters I talked to thought it [The Class] was dull. One even left after the first half. The committee at large likely did not vote this in on the first round and the academy‚Äôs executive committee put in it in the mix. If you are looking for a pool winner go with Japan for the upset. That country‚Äôs film, ‘Departures’ is one the original foreign language committee LOVED.” Equally interesting and perhaps important for the film’s chances is the fact that it was the most restricted in terms of its screenings. People really had to go out of their way to see it which is, as Kris states, a old tactic to boost your prospects here.

The long and short of it is that I am changing my prediction to ‘Departures’.

Another change in those pesky categories is in short film live action where I am hopping on the consensus bandwagon by switching from ‘New Boy’ (which I found very moving) to ‘Toyland’ for all the reasons discussed elsewhere than I shall refrain from re-hashing here.

The other categories I remain frustrated about:

CINEMATOGRAPHY: I am reversing my prediction. Following wins at the ASC and BAFTA I am opting for Anthony Dod Mantle, a veteran, for ‘Slumdog Millionaire’. I still believe that the sheer beauty of Claudio Miranda’s work on ‘Benjamin Button’ remains a serious threat and I think I’ll regret this switch but, there you go …

MUSIC (SONG): Having refused to perform the song in condensed form it would be somewhat strange to see Peter Gabriel awarded for ‘Down to Earth’. Again, a few days I rejected the vote-splitting notion for the two ‘Slumdog’ songs and I still do reject this. The two songs will probably appeal to different people and ‘Jai ho’ has far more momentum and has been a factor more consistently throughout the season. The Academy have a record of being contrarian in this record in recent years. This year with most people calling it for ‘Jai ho’ perhaps they’ll be contrarian again by defying the consensus. I’m switching to Gabriel and Newman, two legends deserving of an Oscar and because… dare I say it … it’s the best of the three. But I’m still hurt about the two fingers to The Boss!

SOUND MIXING and SOUND EDITING: Are the voters really discerning enough to split their votes here, i.e. understand the difference between the two categories? A few days ago I thought the answer was yes but I’ve since converted and now have ‘The Dark Knight’ down for both wins.

And, the category that causes me the most pain in these final hours …

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Take a look at this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Iy23LVFG1w.

For those who have seen ‘Doubt’ in the theaters you will probably be reflecting and reminiscing on what an amazing performance Viola Davis delivered in just over ten minutes of screen time. Adriane Lenox collected a Tony award for her performance in its original Broadway run back in 2005. The role of Mrs. Muller is the smallest of the four but possesses the most power in the hands of a capable actor. And boy is Viola Davis a capable actor. Just like on the stage – although the setting has changed from the Principal’s office to an exterior scene – a long, superbly written and morally ambiguous scene depicts an hair-raising exchange between Mrs. Muller and Sister Aloysius (Streep). In the hands of the wrong actor a scene wherein a mother says that, for the sake of her son’s welfare, she would accept almost anything Father Flynn (Seymour Hoffman) might have done would tend to be inhuman, immoral and ultimately unbelieveable. But Davis hits just the right tone.

My initial prediction in this category was Penelope Cruz and she remains the consensus frontrunner for her wickedly funny turn in ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’. Cruz, playing Maria Elena, the passionate and crazy ex-wife of arist Juan Antonio Gonzalo (Javier Bardem) is a real treat, no doubt. She blows her American co-stars (Scarlett Johansson and Rebecca Hall) out of the water. But the performance does not raise the hairs on the neck. It doesn’t ‘wow’ you in the way that the interplay of Davis and Streep does. Added to that ‘Doubt’ was clearly appreciated by the Academy with five nominations, all in the top categories. Contrast that with ‘Vicky’ that could not even manage a nomination for Woody Allen’s screenplay.

This is a tough category because the precursors meant so little. The key industry awards – Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes – all opted for Kate Winslet’s deemed-to-be-leading-by-AMPAS role in ‘The Reader’. BAFTA is the only industry awards show that has pitted supporting actress contenders against each other minus Kate Winslet. And Cruz prevailed there. But wait a minute. Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson – two definite factors in the Oscar race – were snubbed by BAFTA (Henson did not even make the 15-woman long-list). Cruz prevailed over Oscar nominees Adams and Tomei and Tilda Swinton (‘Burn After Reading’) and Freida Pinto (‘Slumdog Millionaire’). The long and short of it is that we have little way of knowing how Cruz and Davis might fare against each other. So perhaps the smart thing to do is stick with Cruz … and haven’t quite got the bottle not to be smart.

SUMMARY

Picture – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’

Achievement in directing – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’, d. Danny Boyle

Actor in a leading role – Mickey Rourke, ‘The Wrestler’

Actor in a supporting role – Heath Ledger, ‘The Dark Knight’

Actress in a leading role – Kate Winslet, ‘The Reader’

Actress in a supporting role – Penelope Cruz, ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’

Animated feature film – ‘Wall-E’, d. Andrew Stanton

Art direction – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Donald Graham Burtt; Victor J. Zolfo)

Cinematography – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (Anthony Dod Mantle)

Costume design – ‘The Duchess’ (Michael O’Connor)

Documentary feature – ‘Man on Wire’, d. James Marsh, p. Simon Chinn

Documentary short subject – ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’, d. Steven Okazaki

Film editing – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (Chris Dickens)

Foreign language film – ‘Departures’ (Japan), d. Yojiro Takita

Makeup – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Greg Cannom)

Music (Score) – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (A.R. Rahman)

Music (Song) – ‘Wall-E’ (Down to Earth), music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman; lyric by Peter Gabriel

Short film animation – ‘This Way Up’, d. Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Short film live action – ‘Spielzeugland (Toyland)’, d. Jochen Alexander Freydank

Sound editing – ‘The Dark Knight’ (Richard King)

Sound mixing – ‘The Dark Knight’ (Lora Hirschberg; Gary Rizzo; Ed Novick)

Visual effects – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Eric Barba; Steve Preeg; Burt Dalton; Craig Barron)

Writing (Adapted) – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’, w. Simon Beaufoy

Writing (Original) – ‘Milk’, w. Dustin Lance Black

TALLY
‘Slumdog Millionaire’ – 6
‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ – 3
‘The Dark Knight’ – 3
‘Wall-E’ – 2

1 – ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’, ‘Departures’, ‘Man on Wire’, ‘Milk’, ‘The Reader’, ‘This Way Up’, ‘Toyland’, ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’, ‘The Wrestler’