Potential Kate Winslet Upset and Other Spoilers

I just got a tip that Melissa Leo could upset Kate Winslet on Sunday. If so, it would be a kind of Marcia Gay Harden type thing where voters believe Leo deserved it over Kate. The only potential Frozen River upset I’m feeling (not that I woud know anything about anything) is in original screenplay. We’re all focusing on Milk v. Wall-E but I really think Frozen River has a shot there. The tipster also said it’s a close race but Sean Penn will be the winner in Best Actor.

Let’s talk about potential spoilers. Before we launch head-long into our last No Guts, No Glory of the year, what could be among the big time spoilers on Sunday? Here are a few semi-reasonable ones I can think of:

Melissa Leo upsetting in Actress (if Winslet and Streep split the house)
Brad Pitt winning in Best Actor (if Penn and Rourke split the house)
Courtney Hunt winning for original screenplay (I actually see this as a real possibility)
Anyone but Heath Ledger winning (I would say Downey, Jr. is next in line but one never knows)
Anything but Slumdog winning in Picture, Director, Adapted Screeplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score
Kung-Fu Panda beating Wall-E (I am not the one who should comment on this…let’s just leave it at that).
Trouble the Water beating Man on Wire
If neither The Class nor Waltz with Bashir win in Foreign.