Why Heath Ledger Might Not…And the Locks so Far

“You wanna know how I got these scars?”

The Academy has historically NOT buckled under outside pressure. Even in the face of the year’s most interesting performance, if they didn’t like it, they didn’t like it. We’re talking warm fuzzies here. We’re talking, “we like you to be good, just not better…” to quote a line from Postcards from the Edge. Maybe it isn’t even a case of that, because the actors in SAG unanimously said Heath deserved it.

When everyone aligns behind one specific person that happens to star in a movie they didn’t particularly like, no one watches over what they do in the privacy of their own home, sometimes weird shit can go down. It would be really embarrassing for them but that is one gene they don’t seem to possess: the ability, in large numbers, to be embarrassed by their choices.

I’m not saying I have the nerve to not predict him but my experience with these people tells me there is a really good chance that this will be the big upset of the night, if there is one. I don’t think it will be Best Picture. Short of this potential hideousness taking place (pity the poor fool who has to stand up and accept that award in Heath’s place), I do not forsee any major upsets. Let’s do a quick rundown of the still-sort-of-open races and the locked ones:

Best Picture – locked, Slumdog
Best Director-locked, Slumdog
Adapted Screenplay-locked, Slumdog
Original Screenplay-open – Milk vs. Wall-E (freak chance of Courtney Hunt taking it)
Actor-Mickey Rourke v. Sean Penn — weird freak chance of Frank Langella slipping in
Actress-Kate Winslet v. Meryl Streep — weird freak chance of Anne Hathaway sneaking in
Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger, most think locked (I am still worried), if not him, Downey, Jr. because of his great year and because they kind of liked Iron Man.
Editing-Slumdog, probably locked.
Cinematography-Slumdog, probably locked – Benjamin Button is another strong possibility.
Art Direction-Benjamin Button probably locked.
Costume-Benjamin Button, probably locked.
Sound-Slumdog v. Dark Knight v. Wall-E
Sound Editing-Slumdog v. Dark Knight v. Wall-E
Foreign Language — Waltz with Bashir v. The Class
Doc Feature — Man on Wire (with a slight chance for Trouble the Water to upset)
Animated Feature — locked, Wall-E
Makeup–Button
Visual Effects–Button v. Dark Knight
Score — locked, slumdog.
Song — all three in contention