Precious an Early Oscar Contender?

Film Misery comes up with six reasons why Precious will be nominated for Best Picture (and for each one there is probably an equal and opposite reason why not, but nevertheless) and then asks if he’s off base. Closing one’s mind to possibilities can sometimes lead to regret where Oscar predictions are concerned, however the “might even win” part proves he drinking the Absinthe. But anyway, why not have a look:

Here are Six Reasons Why Precious Will Be Nominated For and May Even Win Best Picture

1) It has received nearly unanimous praise. Not just praise, but I would even say unanimous raves. Reviews in the trades were full of praise with John Anderson from Variety calling the film “courageous and uncompromising, a shaken cocktail of debasement and elation, despair and hope.”

2) It is not a frontrunner. The past several years, it has almost been a curse to be a beginning of the year frontrunner. Lately we have seen films that were on nobody’s radar at the beginning of the year playing the festival circuit and then sneaking in late in the season and taking some top Oscars.

3) The story is Oscar bait. The film is a harrowing look at an underdog attempting to overcome a difficult family life (Million Dollar Baby), struggles caused by race (Crash), and socioeconomic status (Slumdog Millionaire). It’s a dark story, but very human.

4) The Oprah effect. Oscar watchers speculated that Oprah’s passionate campaigning for Crash is what pushed it over the top for its Best Picture upset. She also has stumped for Slumdog Millionaire and Atonement, two films that had more success than was once expected. With Precious, Oprah is the executive producer, so there is no doubt she’ll be campaigning for it like crazy.

5) Oscar loves a newcomer. This is the first film for lead actress Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe. While having a newcomer in a successful performance does not always improve the film’s best picture chances, it does get the film a lot of attention. Recent instances of newcomers leading films to Oscar glory are Slumdog Millionaire (acting ensemble), Juno (Diablo Cody), Dreamgirls (Jennifer Hudson), and Little Miss Sunshine (Abigail Breslin).

6) It has a golden release schedule. The path for many Oscar best picture nominees has been similar – a few festival screenings (some in competition, some not), followed a very limited late fall release, followed by a more expanded release. The film’s mid-November release is also comparable to the last two Best Picture winners No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire