Early indicators, off the charts

Make of it what you will,, but Public Enemies has just become the 5th movie* of 2009 to enter the IMDb Top 250. I don’t pretend that this isn’t a questionable distinction, but it’s far from meaningless. If you’ll remember when I was harping on this last season, these 9 films were weaving their way through the charts.

Add The Reader, or another dark horse of your choice, and wouldn’t this have been a reasonable and respectable list of the 10 Best Pictures of 2008?

Bear in mind that the chart won’t solidify into a reliable indicator until late December. (I’d be the last person to suggest The Hangover has a shot at a Best Picture nomination, though others have already posed the possibility). And the chart quickly disintegrates after the first of the year — when more people catch up to seeing the nominees, the backlash often begins. (see, Slamdogs Gaybash Milk)

Plenty of time over the next 6 months for any of these titles to rise or fall off the chart altogether, but until we have some actual “legitimate” precursors and year-end critics lists to help figure our Oscar formulas, I’ll continue to pimp the IMDb chart as a pretty good barometer for guesstimating the 10 Best Picture nominees. Just another factor to consider and worth keeping an eye on.

*(Coraline hovered around near 200 between February and April, rising as high as 173 before dropping off. Look for it to return when the 3-D DVD and Blu-ray are released next month?)