IW’s Knegt Dives Into the Oscar Categories

Indiewire’s Peter Knegt gets down to it with the locks and whatnot of this year’s race so far. First he, then we…

Beyond that, I’d wager that there are roughly 17 films with something of a chance at the remaining 7 slots, some of them much better off than others (“An Education” and “Up,” for example, are looking pretty good right now). It’s within the six films that few among us have seen Р“Invictus,” “Nine,” “The Lovely Bones,” “Avatar,” “Brothers,” “It’s Complicated” Рthat this game could really change, though I have little confidence in the latter three. As for the others… Simplistically put, they are this year’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” Films made for Oscar, and hyped as such from the second they start production. But as we know from last year’s batch, not all of them end up making it work.

What should also be really interesting is what happens to the many films living on the brink here. “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Bright Star” Рthese are, let’s face it, films that would not stand stand a chance at the shortlist in a five-slot-year. As a fan of all four, I think I’d forget my ten-slot apprehension if at least a couple of them ended up making the cut. As far as things stand now, I’ve got one. Ranked in terms of likelihood, here’s my rundown:

Locks:
1. Up In The Air
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Precious

More after the cut.

Good Bets:
4. An Education
5. Up

Seem Likely… But, No One Really Knows:
6. Invictus
7. Nine
8. The Lovely Bones

For The Last Two Slots:
9. The Last Station
10. A Serious Man
11. Inglourious Basterds
12. A Single Man
13. Bright Star
14. Crazy Heart

Seem Unlikely, But No One Really Knows:
15. Avatar
16. Brothers
17. It’s Complicated

Very Dark Horses:
18. The Road
19. Julie & Julia
20. Where The Wild Things Are

I guess if they had to go one mainstream aimed-at-women movie they might plug in It’s Complicated with Julie & Julia. A word about It’s Complicated, though – up until now, Nancy Myers hasn’t delivered. Her films have been, to me, unwatchable. As you all know, it’s difficult for me to say since I support women directors – but both Nora Ephron and Nancy Myers make movies for certain kinds of women. I know women like that – I am just not one of them. However, both of them usually have 50% of their films worth watching. I’ve seen The Holiday, as terrible as it is, probably five times because I like the performances. Actually, I think it is probably her best film to date.

I can only just barely make it through You’ve Got Mail and Sleepless in Seattle, but I will no doubt suffer through the Julie parts to get to the Julia parts when the film hits cable.

But one movie I can’t even watch all the way through is Something’s Gotta Give. You will find no greater fan of Diane Keaton but that movie was a women’s fantasy gone way wrong.

So I am, naturally, wary of It’s Complicated for those reasons. However, just like it seemed impossible for anything with Diane Keaton and Jack Nicholson to go that wrong, it seems impossible to look at Alec Baldwin, Steve Martin and Meryl Streep and ever imagine anything could go wrong. I just hope it isn’t like the Keaton movie – whitewashed to make it seem like men really do only want older, more experienced women. Take it from me, folks. Some of them do, yes. But most of them are programmed by nature to prefer the younger among us. Nancy Myers tries, in my opinion, to change the way nature works in order to … give women a boost? More power to her for that. And I applaud her efforts to change the minds of studio heads and audiences alike. I just wish the writing was a bit less generic.

Diane Keaton’s character in Something’s Gotta Give is so irritatingly perfect it boggles the mind and ruins everything that is good about the film. On the other hand, her character in Baby Boom (written by Myers, directed by her cad of a husband) is great – flaws and all.¬† So based on her track record I’d say It’s Complicated is going to bug.

There seem to be forces at work pushing the film into the generally discussed Best Picture contenders group – as Peter Knegt casually includes it with Avatar, The Lovely Bones, etc. Who am I to stop the train?