Golden Globes Preview – The Actors

The Best Actress race this year is the most interesting it’s been in a while. With a handful of great performances by women it stands out as a year where almost anything is possible, unlike what has felt like fairly predictable runs from the beginning of the season onward. The strongest right now are Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia, Gabby Sadibe for Precious, Carey Mulligan for An Education, Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side, Abbie Cornish for Bright Star, and Helen Mirren for the Last Station. But in the terms of the Golden Globes, we must also think about musical/comedy, which means that Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock will likely be double-nominated in both categories. With the exception of Kate Winslet winning in two categories, generally the Globes like to spread the wealth, which is sometimes why if an actor is nominated in both television and film categories, if they win an early TV award, sometimes that can signal that they aren’t going to win the film award. On the other hand, anything can happen at the Globes.

Last year’s acting nominations went like this:

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas ‚Äì I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Oscar swapped Kate Winslet in The Reader and it swapped Melissa Leo with Kristin Scott Thomas.

In my thinking, no one had a realistic shot to win but Kate Winslet.

In the Musical/Comedy section, none of the actors, male or female, went on to be nominated for Oscars, but Meryl Streep was double-nominated:
Rebecca Hall – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand – Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep – Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson – Last Chance Harvey

For Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Oscar put Richard Jenkins for The Visitor in there instead of Leonardo DiCaprio. Both Jenkins and Leo are long time character actors, long appreciated behind the scenes, never at the Oscars.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical Or Comedy

Javier Bardem – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell – In Bruges
James Franco – Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson – In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey

Going by last year’s pattern, this year is going to be drama-centric, probably. If there is a “wrong” committed, ie Melissa Leo, the Oscars might correct it. Leo was also nominated for the SAG and the Critics Choice, which made it very likely she was Oscar-bound. Richard Jenkins was nominated for the SAG as well.

So, predictions? What will they look like when they read them off on Tuesday morning. Who can say? I suspect there will be some surprises in the mix but the safe bets would be:

Actor, Drama:
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Ben Foster, The Messenger OR Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Also possible: Viggo Mortenson, The Road

Actor, Comedy/Musical
Daniel Day Lewis, Nine
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man
Matt Damon, The Informant
Bradley Cooper, The Hangover
Ryan Reynolds, The Proposal

Actress, Drama
Gabby Sadibe, Precious
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
But don’t count out: Shohreh Aghdashloo, “The Stoning of Soraya M.” or Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria.

Actress, Musical/Comedy
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Meryl Streep, It’s Complicated
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Sandra Bullock, The Proposal
Zoey Deschanel, 500 Days of Summer

Supporting Actor:
Alec Baldwin, It’s Complicated
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Matt Damon, Invictus
Also possible: Alfred Molina, An Education, Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia or Lovely Bones (deserves both)

Best Supporting Actress
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Also possible: Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds, Nicole Kidman, Nine

There are still many potential changes to this race – this is a rough estimate of what the buzz is right now, which doesn’t really mean that much since traditionally the buzz starts now. Any new name or omitted name will change things in one direction or another. But this is how it’s looking so far. Up next, the full predictions list!