Karger’s Predix Up

In the past we used to compare Karger’s predictions to the Academy’s – but I don’t think I have time to dig them up at the moment — however, let’s just sum it up by saying he’s usually not more than one off in the categories. Best Picture probably doesn’t count since there are ten this year but many of his predix you can take to the bank. For my money, he’s still the best there is. Thanks to Tapley for the hat tip:

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

I’m down with his choices. Yes, he has swapped out The Messenger for Nine. This is interesting — but I’m still not so sure. It’s possible, yes. I’m going to wait to see what BAFTA will do, though I do think that two slots could be up for a steal nomination and those would be the Nine/Up slots. Funnily enough, Karger’s predix come out while ballots are still outstanding and voters are putting it down. So, anyone who isn’t sure or hasn’t seen all of the movies could just go with Karger’s lead here. It’s funny to predict the awards before all of the ballots are in. On the other hand, these are pretty much the same predictions we’ve all been floating for a while. You have to ask yourself what has changed in the past week or so. What shifts have you noticed. Where is all of the heat? That is how you figure out what could swoop in and take some of the weaker slots. But, barring some kind of dramatic shift, this seems to be the right take. Right?

Here are the films I think could make a surprise appearance: Crazy Heart, The Messenger, District 9. All three could make a dramatic 11th hour appearance and it wouldn’t be that shocking.

More after the cut.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Pete Docter & Bob Peterson, Up
Scott Neustatder & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay
Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach, Fantastic Mr. Fox
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air