DGA Preview

The Directors Guild are announcing Thursday morning. It goes without saying that no other group better determines the Best Pic lineup than the DGA. That was when there five Best Pic nominees and five Best Director nominees. Since it’s practically an impossibility for a film to win Best Pic without at least a DGA nomination, we can assume that those with crossover, DGA and Oscar’s Best Picture, have the strongest chance of winning.¬† Looking back through Oscar/DGA history, which you can do by checking our chart, I discovered that DGA didn’t start handing out their awards until 1948.¬† The ten Best Picture contenders period had already ended by then. There is no way to know how the DGA would impact a scenario with ten nominees. Therefore, we probably have to throw all of the rules with regard to the DGA out of the window.

That means there is a good chance a Best Pic nominee, without a DGA nod, could win Best Picture and no one would really think twice about it. Therefore it might result in less power overall for the esteemed institution. Then again, it might still prove true that a Best Pic prize cannot be gotten without a DGA nod, at the very least.

2009 represents to me the most diverse year by far for directors. Two women may have their films represented in the lineup, one will likely win Best Director for the first time in history. There will be an animated film alongside sci-fi films, a film directed by a gay black man, and films directed women all in the same year. History will look back on 2009 with awe. Take it from someone who spends a hell of a lot of time looking back.

Lone Scherfig probably has the best chance to make it, along with Kathryn Bigelow, in the Best Director lineup. Someone will have to be bumped for that to happen but she seems like a viable choice to me. If you look at the frontrunners right now, they are:

Cameron
Bigelow
Reitman
Eastwood
Tarantino

These are the most obvious choices. Any name you want to push through one of these will have to go. And any of them being dumped from this lineup will signal a weak Best Pic contender.¬†¬† Heading into the DGAs, Invictus is probably the one of the above that feels the weakest for an actual Best Picture win. But it is a well reviewed film, a good film, but most importantly, a Clint Eastwood film. Clint is still the God among Directors, maybe not with “the internets” but certainly within the industry and with critics. He has respect within our tribe. He has respect for his body of work, both as an actor and a director (perhaps even as a musician and an elected official), he has respect for his success late in life, and he is beloved by almost everyone voting in the DGA, the WGA and the AMPAS.

That said, Invictus could be the weak link in this particular lineup. And that’s only if another director is pushing through. The two with the most potential here are Neill Blomkamp for District 9 and Lee Daniels for Precious. I also think Lone Scherfig could sneak in. Again, names have to be pushed out for other names to place.¬† I also have to give credit where credit is due. I’ve sent out a query for predictions (which will go up soon) and those who sent them back named Blomkamp for a DGA nod – Dave Karger, Erik Childress and Kris Tapley. Karger usually plays it safe so this pick was very interesting to me. District 9 has some serious heat coming out of the PGAs and if he somehow makes it onto the DGA list? A surprise win for District 9 could be within sight. Sure, doubtful but not impossible, not in a ten-way split.

Blomkomp’s District 9, like Avatar, deals with marrying human and alien DNA. In both films, the aliens are far more intelligent than we are. Somehow, in Blomkomp’s version, cockroach-like insects have evolved higher intelligence. In Cameron’s version, they are more mammal-like. Both seem to be more peaceful and compassionate than humans. But in almost every other way, the films couldn’t be more different. Still, they are easily two of the most critically acclaimed money makers of 2009. They also happen to be Sci-Fi. Star Trek has an even bigger advantage in that it comes out of our communal nostalgia: t is both a tribute to the beloved series as much as it is a good movie in its own right. Star Trek was one of the first blockbusters we were all chattering about when it was first announced there would be ten nominees. At first it seemed like it was probably a long shot, but as the year came to a close, the most successful films rose to the top.

And that is how it always goes. It takes time for things to settle. It takes time to see if a film lives up to its hype, or if the expectations were too much and the film simply couldn’t handle the load. What we we can say with certainty – naming the best films of any year usually amounts to the right time and the right place. In ten years we may see which films stand the test of time and which films don’t. It’s impossible to say with everything still so close to our minds and hearts.

The best director contenders this year fall three categories character dramas, effects films and message movies. The smallish character dramas that are heavy on the acting and writing, light on the budget and effects vs. the films that are driven by their special effects, their characters and their vision. Cameron and Blomkamp are operating from sheer audacity of vision — what you see is spit out of their imaginations, thereby, in effect, making them auteurs.

Lone Scherfig, Jason Reitman and Lee Daniels fall into the character drama categories, the more traditional Oscar fare.   Clint Eastwood and Kathryn Bigelow fall more into the message movie category. With The Hurt Locker it feels almost as tense and disturbing at a Twilight Zone episode. Invictus is, of course, about uniting black and white. Both films take us right up to present day. The war in Iraq has never felt less meaningful as it does today, in 2009, with a new President who promised to get us the hell out. Invictus shows us the difficulties of a black leader leading a white-dominant nation.

Funnily enough, The Hurt Locker can be paired with Avatar and Invictus can be paired with District 9. The former, because it sends the message that we must get the fuck out of Iraq. The latter because they both take place in South Africa.

Avatar is a fantasy version of sorts of the trouble we cause when we invade a country that doesn’t want us there. The Hurt Locker is the reality. District 9 is the metaphor; Invictus, the reality.

And then we have coming-of-age with Up in the Air and An Education. Both films are standouts because they both turn on the realizations of their lead characters – their somewhat naive protagonists who believe they are on the right track because, gosh darn it, everything looks so pretty. But in the end, you need a warm body next to you to make life matter, and you need an education if you want to do anything more with your life than ending up knocked up by the local playboy. Both films deal with disillusionment and liars. The main difference is that by the end of An Education you know where Carey Mulligan is going. In Up the Air, we have no idea where George Clooney is going.

Finally, two movies that stand outside any of the other categories. An animated film about living out one’s long-buried dreams and a Tarantino joint that defies description except to say that it is a Tarantino movie. No other director this year brings along his own identity with his work the way Quentin Tarantino does. He has made something wild and glorious.¬† He has the most fervent fan base of any other director, with the possible exception of Cameron. Inglourious Basterds is one that will linger long after this year and might go down as the Goodfellas in the grouping, although it’s probably too soon to know for sure.

The films that Oscar has forgotten will linger beyond this silly race. There are other reasons to make and release films besides winning Oscars. It’s just that the Oscar race gives a global audience the chance to focus on these films for a time. That focus doesn’t hold over the years to follow. It evaporates like temporary, passionate lust. Films like Bright Star, Where the Wild Things Are, and those that aren’t even in the dialogue at all will find their audience over time. The contest is just that – it’s a game of win or lose and the people who play hardest are usually those hired to sell their product. Therefore, within the best of our ability, it is important to remember that the Oscar race is a game. It is about what can win and what will win more so than it is about what deserves to win. When you think about it, everyone has their own idea of what “deserves” to win anyway – so how could a consensus ever be reached?

The director is the star of the Best Picture race and that moment of glory starts with the DGA.