The Critics Choice – the First Big Win of the Year

The Critics Choice awards will be televised live this Friday, on VH1 at 6pm Pacific time. You can vote for your favorites on their site. You can follow us on Twitter, @awardsdaily, otherwise we will also be updating the site as it happens.

For the first time in a very long while, we will be entering the Critics Choice awards on Friday with a big question mark in many of the categories. Sure, Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds and Mo’Nique for Precious, Up for Animated Feature are probably the only sure bets. Best Picture? Big question mark. Best Actress? Who knows. Best Actor? Anyone’s game. We are out of the nominations phase, mostly, and are now waiting to see what film or performers voters in large groups are going to go for.

It could be said that what wins here could change the race dramatically. It could also be said that it would confirm what we already know. You have to go back to 2005 to find a year when the BFCA did not match Oscar with Best Picture. That isn’t a very long time to gauge success, but the Critics Choice were among the few to honor The Departed the year it won. They went for LA Confidential over Titanic. They went for Sideways over Million Dollar Baby, Saving Private Ryan over Shakespeare in Love, Fargo over The English Patient, Sense and Sensibility over Braveheart.

The BFCA are about 200, double that of the Hollywood Foreign Press, whose membership is something like 100. The Academy, by contrast, has over 6,000. The BFCA have also been dealing with ten nominees since they began (I think). A film has never won Best Picture that was outside the Academy’s five nominees for Best Picture.

Let’s go through the nominees.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:
• Avatar
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Invictus
• Nine
• Precious
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up In The Air

It’s a safe bet to say that Best Picture for the Critics Choice is going to be between Up in the Air, Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. There will be voters for many of the other films, like Precious, Up, An Education, etc. But the heat is really on the Big Four. It really could go in all sorts of directions.¬† Up in the Air is said to be the favorite among the BFCA. But then, The Hurt Locker has the critics’ heat for sure. And then, of course, there is Avatar. I don’t necessarily think that what wins here wins the Oscar, though, but it could change the tone of the race. Right this moment it feels like it’s between The Hurt Locker and Avatar. If Up in the Air wins here, that gives that film a big, popular boost. If it then goes on to win the Globe, it has a really good chance of becoming the new favorite to win the Oscar. An Avatar win here could be the start of its inevitable steamroller over all of the awards shows to come – and one by one, they are knocked down.¬† And there is the potential unstoppable nature of The Hurt Locker.

I have no clue how they will award this prize. So I will refrain from even attempting to predict it.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees:
• Jeff Bridges РCrazy Heart
• George Clooney РUp In The Air
• Colin Firth РA Single Man
• Morgan Freeman РInvictus
• Viggo Mortensen РThe Road
• Jeremy Renner РThe Hurt Locker

It’s probably going to be Jeff Bridges. On the other hand, there are a few potential surprises to be had – like if Colin Firth pulls out a surprise win, or Up in the Air proves really popular with this group and Clooney wins. Clooney might still win even if Up in the Air doesn’t win. Jeremy Renner could pull in a surprise underdog move here, and that would bring the crowd to their feet. Hard to say. Probably Jeff Bridges but really, it’s a big question mark.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees:
• Emily Blunt РThe Young Victoria
• Sandra Bullock РThe Blind Side
• Carey Mulligan РAn Education
• Saoirse Ronan РThe Lovely Bones
• Gabourey Sidibe РPrecious
• Meryl Streep РJulie & Julia

I think Meryl Streep will probably win. In looking at that ballot, the Critics Choice are going to feel compelled to vote for her. She’ll give a great speech and everyone will have a good time (ditto for a George Clooney win, btw). Although it could always be Carey Mulligan. There isn’t an actress in this group that is really “working it” to win this thing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees:
• Matt Damon РInvictus
• Woody Harrelson РThe Messenger
• Christian McKay РMe And Orson Welles
• Alfred Molina РAn Education
• Stanley Tucci РThe Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz РInglourious Basterds

Christoph Waltz will win this in a walk. Basterds is a very popular film within this group. Stanley Tucci and Woody Harrelson are the two to watch out for.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees:
• Marion Cotillard РNine
• Vera Farmiga РUp In The Air
• Anna Kendrick РUp In The Air
• Mo’Nique РPrecious
• Julianne Moore РA Single Man
• Samantha Morton РThe Messenger

Mo’Nique has it sewn up. The two Up in the Air actresses will split their vote. No other performance has as much strength as this one heading into the race.

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Nominees:
• Jae Head РThe Blind Side
• Bailee Madison РBrothers
• Max Records РWhere The Wild Things Are
• Saoirse Ronan РThe Lovely Bones
• Kodi Smit-McPhee РThe Road

Gosh, a tough one. Something tells me that Max Records has a good chance to win this, but couldn’t it be any of these and no one would be shocked.

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Nominees:
• Inglourious Basterds
• Nine
• Precious
• Star Trek
• Up In The Air

Inglourious Basterds will probably win here. I guess Up in the Air would be second in line.

BEST DIRECTING

Nominees:
• Kathryn Bigelow РThe Hurt Locker
• James Cameron РAvatar
• Lee Daniels РPrecious
• Clint Eastwood РInvictus
• Jason Reitman РUp In The Air
• Quentin Tarantino РInglourious Basterds

I will be very surprised if Kathryn Bigelow doesn’t pick up her first big win of the season here. I suppose there is always a chance that Cameron or Tarantino, or even Reitman could pick it up – but I think Bigelow is on an unstoppable course.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:
• Mark Boal РThe Hurt Locker
• Joel Coen & Ethan Coen РA Serious Man
• Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber Р(500) Days Of Summer
• Bob Peterson, Peter Docter РUp
• Quentin Tarantino РInglourious Basterds

I think it’s between Quentin Tarantino and Mark Boal here.¬† Tarantino because they might want to award the film they loved so much with a major award (other than supporting actor); Mark Boal because The Hurt Locker is going strong. Then again, any of these five could win and it wouldn’t be shocking, right?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:
• Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach РFantastic Mr. Fox
• Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell РDistrict 9
• Geoffrey Fletcher РPrecious
• Tom Ford, David Scearce РA Single Man
• Nick Hornby РAn Education
• Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner РUp In The Air

Probably Reitman and Turner will win.¬† If not, District 9 could sneak in, as could An Education. Or even Precious. Who knows. It’s another big question mark if it isn’t Up in the Air.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees:
• The Hurt Locker
• Nine
• Avatar
• The Lovely Bones
• Inglourious Basterds

Avatar should win this, being the prettiest one of the bunch. If it isn’t Avatar it will be The Hurt Locker, I suspect.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Nominees:
• A Single Man
• Avatar
• Nine
• The Lovely Bones
• Inglourious Basterds

Avatar, maybe Basterds.

BEST EDITING

Nominees:
• Up In The Air
• Inglourious Basterds
• The Hurt Locker
• Avatar
• Nine
It’s between The Hurt Locker and Avatar for the win.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees:
• Nine
• Bright Star
• The Young Victoria
• Inglourious Basterds
• Where The Wild Things Are

Bright Star deserves to win, but I suspect they will toss another award to the Basterds.

BEST MAKEUP

Nominees:
• Avatar
• District 9
• Nine
• The Road
• Star Trek
Between The Road and D9. I think D9 will win.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees:
• Avatar
• District 9
• The Lovely Bones
• Star Trek
• 2012
This reminds me of when Bruce Springsteen introduces Clarence to the audience and he says “do I have to say his name?” And no, is it even worth the energy to bother typing it out? Avatar.

BEST SOUND

Nominees:
• Avatar
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker
• Nine
• Star Trek
I guess I’ll go with Avatar for Sound, since it’s winning the Oscar for Sound most likely.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees:
• Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
• Coraline
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• Princess And The Frog
• Up

Up wins fairly easily.

BEST ACTION MOVIE

Nominees:
• Avatar
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek

Avatar will win this, especially if it doesn’t win Best Pic. Although District 9 could win here.¬†¬† Pause for a moment to ruminate on their nominating The Hurt Locker as an “action movie.”

BEST COMEDY

Nominees:
• (500) Days Of Summer
• The Hangover
• It’s Complicated
• The Proposal
• Zombieland
The Hangover or 500 Days of Summer, probably The Hangover.

BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Nominees:
• Gifted Hands
• Grey Gardens
• Into The Storm
• Taking Chance

Grey Gardens?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:
• Broken Embraces
• Coco Before Chanel
• Red Cliff
• Sin Nombre
• The White Ribbon

Tough call. I would say Red Cliff but something tells me The White Ribbon will win. No clue.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees:
• Anvil
• Capitalism: A Love Story
• The Cove
• Food, Inc.
• Michael Jackson’s This Is It
It’s between The Cove and Food, Inc. But I think The Cove will win. This is It has an outside shot.

BEST SONG

Nominees:
‚Ä¢ “All Is Love” – Karen O, Nick Zinner – Where The Wild Things Are
‚Ä¢ “Almost There” – Randy Newman – The Princess And The Frog
‚Ä¢ “Cinema Italiano” – Maury Yeston – Nine
‚Ä¢ “(I Want To) Come Home” – Paul McCartney – Everybody‚Äôs Fine
‚Ä¢ “The Weary Kind” – Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett – Crazy Heart

Not sure, but I’ll say The Weary Kind gets it.

BEST SCORE

Nominees:
• Michael Giacchino РUp
• Marvin Hamlisch РThe Informant!
• Randy Newman РThe Princess and the Frog
• Karen O, Carter Burwell РWhere The Wild Things Are
• Hans Zimmer РSherlock Holmes

I think Oscar is going to go for Marvin Hamlisch for The Informant! But the BFCA might go for Karen O and Carter Burwell.

Okay, that’s about all I got for this. We’ll know on Friday night how it all plays out.