The DGAs – David and Goliath

Kris Tapley says that Jim Cameron will take the Directors Guild top prize. He gives his reasons here:

The answer is in the populist leanings of the guild, a vast, diluted membership that is TV-heavy, rules against sending screeners (which is a definite thorn for Kathryn Bigelow, whose film pulled down minuscule box office), etc.

So the race will be back and forth one more weekend and the real victor of the week might well be the film that ends up with the most Oscar nominations Tuesday morning. The epic of David and Goliath will turn one more page at that time as we make our way through February and, ultimately, Oscar’s stage, when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be asked to anoint a representative from the class of 2009 to represent the best in filmed art and entertainment.

If he’ right, he will join the following (from Gold Derby’s site):

Lane Brown (Vulture, New York Magazine), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Scott Feinberg (And the Winner Is…), Elena Howe (The Envelope, L.A. Times), Tariq Khan (Fox¬†News),¬†Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby, The Envelope), Jill Sergeant (Reuters), Sean Smith (Entertainment Weekly), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today)

Those predicting Bigelow include:
Erik Childress, eFilm Critic and Cinematical
Damien Bona, Inside Oscar

And these from Tom’s site:

Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Brad Brevet (Rope of Silicon), Ted Casablanca (E! Online), Erik Davis (Cinematical),  Greg Ellwood (Hit Fix), Marshall Fine (Star Magazine, Hollywood and Fine), Paul Gaita (The Circuit, The Envelope), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Jack Mathews (The Oscarologist, Moviefone), Steve Pond (The Odds, The Wrap), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)

A Cameron win would not be that surprising. Here are my thoughts on Kris’ thoughts. No, the DGAs don’t send out screeners. But that means they had to go out and see Avatar at the theater in 3-D, which many of them might have done. But The Hurt Locker is not only on DVD, it’s on demand. So is Inglourious Basterds. That means, these movies could easily be seen. Moreover, any director who is in the directors guild and doesn’t see The Hurt Locker or Avatar ought to turn in their membership card on Monday. How stupid do you have to be to vote on awards for films you never saw?

No, I don’t buy it. I can buy rallying behind Cameron for his enormous achievement and the money the film made – I can’t see them lazily choosing Cameron over Bigelow (if a lazy choice is to be made, believe me, they’re going to vote for Bigelow).