I feel like I have to disclose the information passed on to me by predictor extraordinaire, Kris Tapley – who predicted, along with Damien Bona, 21 out of 24 categories last year, but whose crowning moment was predicting Departures to upset Waltz With Bashir. Tapley told me yesterday that Argentina’s Oscar submission, El Secreto de sus Ojos, is the one to beat. Here is some more information about the film, along with an interview with the film’s director.
The Academy members who vote on foreign language, documentary and the shorts are required to see all five films before voting. If this film wins, it would upset The White Ribbon and Un Prophete, the latter has won almost every award leading up to this race, but usually that’s because the voters have not viewed the competition.