Awards Daily Nominations Project, Final Results

Rob Y, our wonderful Wizard of Odds, has finished the final tally for our Awards Daily Nominations project, with complete results in 10 categories. One of the goals of this simulation was to give us a glimpse inside the complex process AMPAS employs every year. So Rob has shown us something many have wondered about but few ever get a chance to see: the internal numbers, ranking the nominees by percentage of voter support, revealing just how close or how far the 2nd and 3rd place nominees came to winning the whole enchilada.

While studying these results, please don’t forget that AD readers have a different demographic breakdown of backgrounds and tastes than Academy members. Or do we? We’ll have a better idea how well we have reproduced the Oscar process tomorrow, and the best proof will come in March. For now, an example is worth 1000 words of introduction:

Best Director:

1. Katheryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker – 819 Votes – 51.3%
2. Quentin Tarantino – Inglorious Basterds – 359 – 22.5%
3. James Cameron – Avatar – 260 – 16.3%
4. Spike Jonze – Where the Wild Things Are – 109 – 6.8%
5. Jason Reitman – Up in the Air – 48 – 3.0%

Even more interesting are the Best Picture results, tallied using the notoriously convoluted preferential ballot system, the subject of many of our best discussions here in recent weeks.  Best Picture plays out in a series of elimination rounds. Our voting progressed through 8 rounds (one round eliminated two movies in one fell swoop.) Check out the systematic culling after the cut:

First Round:

1. The Hurt Locker – 401 votes – LEADER
2. Inglorious Basterds – 386
3. Avatar – 266
4. Up in the Air – 133
5. (500) Days of Summer – 96
6. A Serious Man – 83
7. Up! – 80
8. Precious – 65
9. District 9 – 46
10. An Education – 36 *** Eliminated ***

Second Round:

1. The Hurt Locker – 407 votes
2. Inglorious Basterds – 393
3. Avatar – 269
4. Up in the Air – 142
5. (500) Days of Summer – 103
6. A Serious Man – 85
7. Up! – 80
8. Precious – 67
9. District 9 – 46 *** Eliminated ***

Third Round:

1. The Hurt Locker – 419 votes
2. Inglorious Basterds – 402
3. Avatar – 276
4. Up in the Air – 148
5. (500) Days of Summer – 106
6. A Serious Man – 86
7. Up! – 86
8. Precious – 69 *** Eliminated ***

Fourth Round:

1. The Hurt Locker – 436 votes
2. Inglorious Basterds – 422
3. Avatar – 283
4. Up in the Air – 158
5. (500) Days of Summer – 115
6. A Serious Man – 89 *** Eliminated ***
7. Up! – 89 *** Eliminated ***

Fifth Round:

1. The Hurt Locker – 481 votes
2. Inglorious Basterds – 476
3. Avatar – 308
4. Up in the Air – 190
5. (500) Days of Summer – 136 *** Eliminated ***

Sixth Round:

1. The Hurt Locker – 517 votes
2. Inglorious Basterds – 511
3. Avatar – 331
4. Up in the Air – 231 *** Eliminated ***

Seventh Round:

1. Inglorious Basterds – 611votes – New Vote Leader
2. The Hurt Locker – 610
3. Avatar – 367 *** Eliminated ***

Final Round:

1. INGLORIOUS BASTERDS – 839 votes – WINNER
2. The Hurt Locker – 746 *** Eliminated ***

Those final two rounds are a dramatic demonstration of how the tides can turn in unexpected directions, a blunt reminder that math is a tool of the devil nothing is certain until the last ballot lands on the winning stack.

Rob has written a terrific summary making A Case for Ingourious Basterds, a fascinating read cutting through the confusion with a mathematical machete:

First let me say that I am a Hurt Locker fan. I cast it as my #1 vote. Inglorious Basterds was #2. So my ballot at no time went for Basterds.

… I am not saying that Inglorious Basterds is the front-runner. (I don’t know what the front runner is considering the results from the Globes, the SAG, the DGA, and the PGA awards.) I am saying that Inglorious Basterds is ripe for an upset.

I will start off by saying that I think that the general population of Awards Daily visitors has a greater proportion of Tarantino fanboys than say the Academy. If approximately one quarter of IB’s first round votes 386 is eliminated, accounting for these fanboys, IB still wins, albeit narrowly. So I don’t think dismissing IB’s success due to the fanboy factor has much merit…

There’s much more, but you’ll have to click through to read it. I’m eager to cut and paste the other categories:

Actress:

1. Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia – 552 Votes – 34.8%
2. Carey Mulligan – An Education – 408 – 25.7%
3. Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side – 239 – 15.1%
4. Gabourey Sidibe – Precious – 198 – 12.5%
5. Tilda Swinton – Julia – 190 – 12.0%

Actor:

1. Colin Firth – A SIngle Man – 473 Votes – 29.8%
2. Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart – 436 – 27.5%
3. Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker – 284 – 17.9%
4. George Clooney – Up in the Air – 245 – 15.4%
5. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – (500) Days of Summer – 148 – 9.3%

Supporting Actress:

1. Mo’Nique – Precious – 829 Votes – 52.1%
2. Melanie Laurent – Inglorious Basterds – 363 – 22.8%
3. Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air – 174 – 10.9%
4. Julianne Moore – A Single Man – 133 – 8.4%
5. Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air – 92 – 5.8%

Supporting Actor:

1. Christoph Waltz – Inglorious Basterds – 1292 Votes – 81.2%
2. Woody Harrelson – The Messenger – 91 – 5.7%
3. Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker – 82 – 5.2%
4. Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones – 80 – 5.0%
5. Alfred Molina – An Education – 46 – 2.9%

Original Screenplay:

1. Inglorious Basterds – 837 Votes – 52.6%
2. (500) Days of Summer – 328 – 20.6%
3. The Hurt Locker – 162 – 10.2%
4. A Serious Man – 144 – 9.0%
5. Up – 121 – 7.6%

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Up in the Air – 781 Votes – 49.2%
2. District 9 – 249 – 15.7%
3. Where the Wild Things Are – 241 – 15.2%
4. Precious – 184 – 11.6%
5. An Education – 132 – 8.3%

Cinematography:

1. Avatar – 483 Votes – 30.4%
2. Inglorious Basterds – 377 – 23.7%
3. The Hurt Locker – 319 – 20.1%
4. Where the Wild Things Are – 274 – 17.3%
5. Nine – 135 – 8.5%

Editing:

1. The Hurt Locker – 602 Votes – 37.9%
2. Avatar – 475 – 30.0%
3. Inglorious Basterds – 281 – 17.7%
4. District 9 – 122 – 7.7%
5. Up in the Air – 106 – 6.7%

Rob has made a couple of interesting statistical observations at the bottom of his official results page. (like, “Christoph Waltz had the highest number of votes in any category.”)

Let’s remember once again, AD readers are not Academy members (not all of them anyway.) So don’t get excited or suicidal just yet.

It’s my understanding that Rob is standing by to proceed with another simulated vote — as soon as we learn the names of the actual nominees tomorrow morning.¬†¬† I think he’s already earned a standing O for being 333% more fascinating than PricewaterhouseCoopers.