BAFTA Preview

For any voters still making up their minds, the British are coming, the British are coming!

Most people would expect that An Education will win the top spot across the pond, being that it’s, well, British. But we could see a surprise here. Avatar and The Hurt Locker both lead with 8. The Hurt Locker has Actor and Screenplay, where Avatar has Music and Art Direction. The BAFTA nominated The Hurt Locker for Visual Effects, which is quite surprising, but they didn’t “like” Avatar enough to give it a screenplay nod nor a supporting actress nod for Saldana, which one might expect they would, being that they have been open-minded in the past.

Let’s talk just briefly about BAFTA history and what kinds of films win. Does Screenplay matter at all?

The BAFTA is easier to look because it only just recently, ten or so years ago, switched its date to being before the Oscars. Was a time when the BAFTA was held after the Oscars. Around Y2K is when they switched.

So, going backwards in time until Y2K, let’s look at how they match Director, Screenplay and Pic:

2008-Slumdog+, D, S – won all three
2007-Atonement, nominated for D, S
2006-The Queen, nominated for D, S
2005-Brokeback Mountain, D, S – won all three
2004-The Aviator, nominated for D, S
2003-Return of the King+, won Screenplay, nominated for D
2002-The Pianist, Won D, nominated for S
2001-Fellowship of the Ring, won D, nominated for S
2000-Gladiator+, nominated for D, S.

In the short history of the BAFTA, a film winning the top spot would have to have both directing and writing nominations. The films that have all three are An Education and The Hurt Locker. So look for your winner among those three. BAFTA matched Oscar for the win last year with Slumdog Millionaire (but it won everything anyway so maybe it doesn’t count).¬† But the Best Picture matches Oscar only three times since 2000. It will be interesting to see what kind of year this turns out to be.

I have made them into a handy comparison chart with Oscar to see how closely they match, and it turns out, they match fairly well.

In terms of Actor and Actress, it’s a tough call. But let’s say that Actress could be down to Meryl Streep versus Carey Mulligan. Streep has never won a BAFTA since the date change and has been nominated six times, including one year where she was nominated for both lead and supporting. It would be a shame if the BAFTA didn’t recognize Streep here, but you know how everyone feels about Carey Mulligan. Odds are probably on Mulligan for the win. With a teentsy potential upset with Gabby Sidibe.

Actor is probably going to be either Colin Firth or Jeff Bridges. I didn’t get much of a Crazy Heart vibe from the BAFTA, though, gotta say.¬† The truth is, any of them could win it. Bridges holds steady if he is nominated. George Clooney could get a tiny bump, but not likely. The real upset here would be Jeremy Renner winning. That boy is like fire and gasoline when you get him on stage so if he gets one chance to win it might make him some competition for Bridges.

Likewise, a win for Streep (if she got a standing ovation, for instance) could help her chances at the Oscars. And if Carey Mulligan has charm to spare, and maybe cries, and is then savaged by the British tabloids for doing so, it could also help her chances.

Supporting should still go to Christoph Waltz — who aces this category, and supporting actress – should be Mo’Nique again, but one never knows. The BAFTA likes to think outside the box. They don’t always pick the status-quo. It could be very surprising indeed.

I’m betting that Kathryn Bigelow wins the BAFTA for directing — but it could go to Jim Cameron too – or even Lone Scherfig.

I am thinking that An Education will be the winner, following in the tradition of Atonement and The Queen.  I will post predictions for the BAFTA later in the week.