Of Locks and Upsets – The Writers

It is less common for a Best Picture frontrunner to be driven by an original screenplay. Most of the recent winners have all been adaptations, either from novels, plays or other films. Going back twenty years, the adaptations almost double that of original scripts:

Slumdog Millionaire
No Country for Old Men
The Departed
Crash
Million Dollar Baby
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Chicago
A Beautiful Mind
Gladiator
American Beauty
Shakespeare in Love
Titanic
The English Patient
Braveheart
Forrest Gump
Schindler’s List
Unforgiven
The Silence of the Lambs
Dances with Wolves
Driving Miss Daisy

There really aren’t that many writer/director projects at all, even among the adaptations. Titanic was written and directed by James Cameron (though not even nominated for screenplay). No Country was adapted by the Coens and directed by them. It happens, but it is rare that the writer accepting the Oscar for Screenplay is also the Director who accepts for Oscar for Directing, even rarer still when the producers are also the writers and the directors — the Coens are one notable example of a recent trifecta win. They shared the producer award with Scott Rudin.

The Best Original Screenplay, and Adapted Screenplay winners are almost always from films that were nominated for Best Picture. This year, only one script isn’t from a nominated Best Pic in the original category, The Messenger. The rest are all from popular Best Picture contenders. In the adapted category, again, only one nominee, In the Loop, is not from a Best Picture nominee.

You have to go back to 1998 to find an adapted script winner that wasn’t from a Best Pic nominee, Gods and Monsters. You only have to go back to 2003 to find a winner in original that wasn’t from a Best Pic nominee, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.¬†¬† It’s clear that adapted kind of drives the Best Picture race much of the time. Could it be that it’s easier to tell stories that have been tested with audiences to know what part of them sells and what part doesn’t? Could it be that, in many cases, collaboration works better in general than a singular vision? What does seem clear from some of the original screenplay winners – they are almost always stars onto themselves, writers whose work many are already familiar with – Charlie Kaufman, Quentin Tarantino, or else they are a consolation prize for a film that wasn’t going to win Best Picture, Jane Campion, Sofia Coppola, Diablo Cody.

The Hurt Locker is most likely going to win the Writers Guild award, as it is not up against either Basterds or Up.¬† That will give him some momentum. As of now, the only time we heard from Boal was when Kathryn Bigelow graciously offered him the mic at the Critics Choice awards. Still, Boal as a writer has yet to take full credit for his script. He will get that chance, perhaps, unless the Coens win at the WGAs. That will make Original Screenplay a bit of a cliffhanger on March 7th. On the one hand, there is Tarantino’s vibrantly written Inglourious Basterds, complete with memorable, quotable dialogue throughout. On the other hand, there is a taut thriller by a journalist who spent time in Iraq.

Most of the time, the Best Picture winner also wins for Screenplay first. Usually, not always. And in some cases, the two Best Pic frontrunners represent screenplays from either original OR adapted. This year, all three of the potential winners are from the original category, Avatar (not nominated), The Hurt Locker and Basterds. When Brokeback Mountain won from the adapted category and Crash won from the original category, most people assumed Brokeback was going to win, especially since it also won Director.  When the Pianist shocked everyone and won Best Adapted Screenplay (over Adaptation and The Hours) and Director (over Rob Marshall), we all thought it would win Best Picture too. But Chicago prevailed. Slumdog Millionaire or Return of the King were apparent sweeps from the outset, so there was never the big question of whether or not a win in the screenplay would signal a win for Best Picture: it was written.

On March 7th, we could find ourselves in an interesting situation with regard to the screenplays. With Avatar out of the screenplay race, all eyes will be on Original Screenplay to see if The Hurt Locker‘s win there could signal a sweep or a Crash-like Best Pic/Best Director split. If it follows Crash’s pattern, Inglourious Basterds would win in Screenplay and then win Best Picture.¬† It really doesn’t seem that unlikely, when you look at like that, does it. Even still, at this point, it’s more likely that Basterds will win in Original Screenplay and then The Hurt Locker will win Picture. I’m going to guess, though, that if Locker does manage to beat Tarantino in Original Screenplay? That is going to signal a sweep.¬† (If The Hurt Locker, incidentally, beats Avatar in any of the tech categories, like sound or cinematography or score? It’s a sweep.)

As far as Adapted Screenplay goes, there are two strong Best Pic frontrunners in that category – Up in the Air and Precious. Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner should win their first Oscar for this adaptation. They will likely win the Writers Guild award, since they’ve won every single critics award and precursor in their path. They aren’t up against In the Loop or District 9 at the WGAs, however, and that might make a slight bit of difference. Precious is really Up in the Air’s biggest threat. If it is a threat to win Best Picture at all we might see its first win here in the Adapted Screenplay category. If passions run strong for Precious, it could win in the Screenplay category and then go on to shock everyone by winning Best Picture.¬†¬† Like Inglourious Basterds, it’s hard to imagine Precious winning just the one Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. And, like Basterds, Precious has that crucial editing nod.

It might seem like this race is locked and loaded and that it will be Up in the Air, and Inglourious Basterds. But with the length of time now that final ballots will be outstanding, there is time for voters to the change their minds. Nothing will change the fact that both the original and the adapted categories this year offer wildly diverse and brilliantly written works, more so than usual.  There is not a weak offering in the bunch. All of them are vivid, memorable stories that range from love stories, to war stories, to black comedies, and straight up dramas. It is reassuring that the writer is still a valued and essential force in the Oscar race.