The State of the Race: Let Them Eat Cake

Some years are easier to call than others. And every year we get some right and we get some wrong. This site has been covering The Blind Side since it started to catch the box office by storm back in November and have been ruminating on its chances ever since. That it was named one of the year’s ten best by the Academy, without any other nominations besides lead actress, is indicative, I think, of the group being able to have its cake and eat it too. They can choose the critically acclaimed masterpieces and they can name the public’s choices as well.¬†

The gap between the Academy’s tastes and the critics’ tastes used to be wider than it has been in recent years.¬†¬† Probably this has to do with Oscar blogging. What the bloggers do is make the general web readership at large aware of the films that are being praised and well liked by the industry and the film goers — not general audiences, but fans and obsessives. This culminated in a best picture lineup that was made up of films the greater population had not seen yet. Why would they care about an Oscars race featuring films they’d never seen? Hence, disinterest and frustration, especially over a popular film like The Dark Knight getting snubbed.

Cut to 2010 – the expansion to ten nominees for Best Pic has indeed turned up many of the public’s favorites, including The Blind Side, but also District 9, Avatar, Precious, Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air. The awards race is bringing viewers to The Hurt Locker and they are, by most accounts, proving that it wasn’t the film itself that kept people away, but fear — fear of having to deal in any way with the war in Iraq, even though this film does not take sides, fear of sitting through something painful and difficult, fear of a female director even.

In determining this year’s Big Ten, the only indication that The Blind Side was on its way was the box office. I do remember standing in a parking garage with Greg Ellwood, Anne Thompson, Kris Tapley and David Poland and Hammond said, “watch out for the Blind Side.” And we all kind of shrugged it off. It is the money, yes, but it’s also so much love and admiration for the hard working and down-to-earth Sandra Bullock. The film quietly became a phenomenon with regular movie-goers — it was never going to be on anyone list of the best films of the year. The Academy, though, they judge things differently; they aren’t critics.

Here is how the hunt for Best Picture turned out with the most significant precursors. As you can see, only one has hit every marker.

The preferential balloting is the trick here. There are films that are poised to upset either Avatar or The Hurt Locker and those would be, as you can see below, Precious, Inglourious Basterds, Up in the Air and, most surprising of all, Up. Of those, only Precious has editing, director, screenplay and two acting nods. That puts it in a startlingly good position heading into this race. Next in line is Basterds with editing, director, screenplay and one acting nod. Up in the air has all of those, THREE acting nods (the most of any film?) but no editing. Finally, Up in the kind of overall crowdpleaser that could sneak up and become the first animated film to win Best Pic. But probably we’re looking a very obvious answer here. The only problem, being, of course, if everyone puts the one film at number one.