We just have two big awards still to be determined – the BAFTAS and the WGA.
Funnily enough, this Oscar race could turn on Best Original Screenplay if it turns on anything. If you think that Best Pic is probably down to The Hurt Locker, Avatar and Inglourious Basterds, you have to also notice that all three of these films are original screenplays. In looking back over Best Picture history, adapted screenplays win more often than original stories do, which is yet another interesting factoid about this year. Since Basterds wasn’t eligible for the WGA, that means original at the WGAs is down to The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar. Since Avatar’s script isn’t nominated for an Oscar, it would have to pull off a miracle to win there.
I was wondering how often the original screenplay Oscar was tied with a Best Pic win. So I went back in time.
What I noticed in building a Best Picture vs. Screenplay chart were a couple of pointed facts. The first is that it is almost always the case that a film that wins Best Picture also wins Screenplay. Most of the time, adapted screenplays win Best Picture. When the winning film does not win Best Picture, the screenplay that wins in its place IS a strong candidate to win Best Picture, and is almost always nominated for Best Pic.
I also noticed one very important factoid about this year’s race. It is definitely true that more nominees for Best Picture lessens the chances for a film to win in both categories.¬† There is more of an inclination to “spread the wealth,” or perhaps it’s the preferential ballot at play.
I think this means that Original Screenplay will either be Inglourious Basterds or The Hurt Locker and it is really about a 50/50 chance either way. All of that time wasted to come up with a conclusion we all could have reached on our own. The point is, there is a better chance of a split between Picture and Screenplay during a preferential balloting year than in any other year, where it much more likely a picture win will also mean a screenplay win.
* denotes film that was nominated for Best Pic.
| Best Picture | Screenplay Win | |
| 08 | Slumdog | Adapted |
| 07 | No Country | Adapted |
| 06 | The Departed | Adapted |
| 05 | Crash | Original (did not win D) |
| 04 | MDB (adapt) | Sideways* |
| 03 | Return of the King | Adapted |
| 02 | Chicago (adapt) | The Pianist* |
| 01 | A Beautiful Mind | Adapted |
| 00 | Gladiator (orig) | Almost Famous |
| 99 | American Beauty | Original |
| 98 | Shakes in Love | Original (did not win D) |
| 97 | Titanic (orig by JC) | Not nominated – Good Will Hunting* |
| 96 | English Patient | Adapted |
| 95 | Braveheart (orig) | Usual Suspects |
| 94 | Forrest Gump | Adapted |
| 93 | Schindler’s | Adapted |
| 92 | Unforgiven | Crying Game* |
| 91 | Silence of the Lambs | Adapted |
| 90 | Dances with Wolves | Adapted |
| 89 | Driving Miss Daisy | Adapted |
| 88 | Rain Man | Original |
| 87 | The Last Emperor | Adapted |
| 86 | Platoon (orig, by OS) | Hannah and Her Sisters* |
| 85 | Out of Africa | Adapted |
| 84 | Amadeus | Adapted |
| 83 | Terms of Endearment | Adapted |
| 82 | Gandhi | Original |
| 81 | Chariots of Fire | Original (did not win D) |
| 80 | Ordinary People | Adapted |
| 79 | Kramer Vs. Kramer | Adapted |
| 78 | The Deer Hunter (orig) | Coming Home* |
| 77 | Annie Hall | Original |
| 76 | Rocky (orig) | Network* |
| 75 | Cuckoo’s Nest | Adapted |
| 74 | The Godfather II | Adapted |
| 73 | The Sting | Adapted |
| 72 | The Godfather | Adapted |
| 71 | The French Connection | Adapted |
| 70 | Patton | Original |
| 69 | Midnight Cowboy | Adapted |
| 68 | Oliver (adapted) | The Lion in Winter* |
| 67 | In the Heat of the Night | Adapted |
| 66 | A Man for All Seasons | Adapted |
| 65 | The Sound of Music (Orig) | NOT NOMINATED-Dr. Zhivago* |
| 64 | My Fair Lady | Becket* |
| 63 | Tom Jones | Adapted |
| 62 | Lawrence of Arabia (Adapted) | To Kill a Mockingbird* |
| 61 | West Side Story (Adapted) | Judgment at Nuremberg* |
| 60 | The Apartment | Original |
| 59 | Ben Hur (Adapted) | Room at the Top* |
| 58 | Gigi | Adapted |
| 57 | Bridge over the River Kwai | Adapted |
| 56 | Around the World in 80 Days | Adapted |
| 55 | Marty | Adapted (Screenplay) |
| 54 | On the Waterfront | Story and Screenplay |
| 53 | From Here to Eternity | Adapted (Screenplay) |
| 52 | The Greatest Show on Earth | Motion Picture Story |
| 51 | An American in Paris | Story and Screenplay |
| 50 | All About Eve | Screenplay |
| 49 | All the King’s Men | A Letter to Three Wives* |
| 48 | Hamlet | Not Nominated-Treasure of Sierra Madre* |
| 47 | Gentleman’s Agreement | Miracle of 34th Street* |
| 46 | The Best Years of Our Lives | Adapted (Screenplay) |
| 45 | The Lost Weekend | Adapted (Screenplay) |
| 44 | Going My Way | Original Story, (Screenplay) |
| 43 | Casablanca | Adapted (Screenplay) |
| 42 | Mrs Miniver | Adapted (Screenplay) |
| 41 | How Green was My Valley | Here Comes Mr. Jordan* |
| 40 | Rebecca | The Philadelphia Story* |
| 39 | Gone with the Wind | Adapted |
| 38 | You Can’t Take it With You | Pygmalion* |
| 37 | The Life of Emile Zola | Original |
| 36 | The Great Ziegfeld (Original) | The Story of Louise Pasteur* |
| 35 | Mutiny on the Bounty | The Informer* |
| 34 | It Happened One Night | Adapted |
| 33 | Cavalcade (adapted) | Not nominated – Little Women* |
| 32 | Grand Hotel (adapted) | not nominated – Bad Girl* |
| 31 | Cimarron | Adapted |
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