A Predictions Consensus is Forming

Around the web, it looks like the consensus is taking shape. Does this mean this is how the Oscars will turn out? It is tough to say. I’m just finishing up our annual Big, Fat Predictions chart, which has the predictions going back a couple of years. Sometimes the general consensus is right. Sometimes it isn’t. According to Roger Ebert, who appeared on Oprah yesterday to give his Oscar predictions (Oprah must be thinking, wtf? The Hurt Locker?). He said that this is one of the easiest years to predict he could remember.

Predictions consensus after the cut.

Most of it feels easy. Something feels not quite right to me. It could be that, despite everything I know about the Oscars to be true, that Avatar will prevail in the end. I have a feeling it will – but I haven’t actually laid down an official prediction that it will. The reason I haven’t is twofold. The first is that I genuinely feel that Kathryn Bigelow directed the best film of the ten and that voters will realize that (the best film doesn’t always win). The second reason is that The Hurt Locker has shown an unprecedented amount of support in the precursors leading up to the race, missing only the crucial SAG ensemble nod.

Finally, it seems impossible to me that the Academy will side with the HFPA only. True, the preferential ballot throws everything off. In the end, I am going to stick with The Hurt Locker because if I’m going to go down, I’d rather go down with the ship.

Meanwhile, here is the general consensus (charts to go up later today):

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Original Screenplay: Still a toss-up between The Hurt Locker and Basterds. Star screenwriter, popular movie, likable guy vs. the WGA and the BAFTA wins, no matter that QT was eligible for a WGA (you have to wonder why he isn’t a member of the WGA in the first place after all of these years. Mark Boal is a member and Quentin Tarantino is not? Whaddup with that?)
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Art Direction: Avatar
Cinematography: Avatar OR The Hurt Locker
Editing: The Hurt Locker
Sound: The Hurt Locker
Sound Editing: Avatar
Costumes: The Young Victoria
Makeup: Star Trek
Documentary: The Cove
Foreign Language: El Secreto (Argentina)
Score: Up
Animated Feature: Up
Visual Effects: Avatar
Song: The Weary Kind
Live Action Short: The Door
Animated Short: Loaf and Death
Doc Short: The Last Truck

You could probably do worse than predicting these for your Oscar pool. I do suspect that a few of them will not pan out. I worry still about Best Picture. I think the acting categories are mostly locked but one suspects there might be some wiggle room in Actress.

Here’s the important thing to note, and something Kris Tapley and I often discuss right around this time of the year. Because of the internal chatter and over-thinking we all do, it is impossible to tell the difference between real and imagined buzz. But once the Oscars start it becomes crystal clear which films are popular and which aren’t.