Oscar Watch: The Actors

We did the ladies, now it’s time to focus on the men. With Get Low opening today with decent enough reviews — we have to look at the Best Actor race, and whether a vet like Robert Duvall, who gives a well reviewed performance, can make it for the long haul.

Unlike the Best Actress race, the Best Actor race is still buried in the haze of expectations and unknowns. We wait for so many answers, like Jeff Bridges in True Grit? Brad Pitt in Tree of Life? We just don’t know. Javier Bardem‘s astonishing work in the very depressing Biutiful? Sean Penn again for Fair Game? George Clooney for The American?

Here is what we do know so far. Leonardo DiCaprio is having a hell of a year. Whether or not the actors will agree is another story. Michael Douglas turned in a very good performance in Solitary Man, and will also charm audiences with Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. Kevin Kline is making a run with The Extra Man. One of the best I’ve already seen is Ryan Gosling, who does his best work yet in Blue Valentine.

The Best Actor race is almost always splits one of three ways. The most common way is that the actor is the star of a Best Picture frontrunner or a favorite Best Picture nominee. Films are driven by strong male characters and more often than not, the AMPAS responds to that paradigm. The second way is when a veteran breaks through and “it’s finally time,” as with Jeff Bridges last year. The third is when they actually deserve it. Sometimes it is all three things at once.

With that, a tentative list of knowns and unknowns and spitballs. As an aside, my two new favorite words are spitballing and hyperbole, which could pretty much describe what I’ve been doing on this site for ten years.

With that, a list. There will be some overlapping here.

Best Actor contenders in Probable Best Pic frontrunners and/or They’re Big Stars and Popular with the Academy:
Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception
Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter
Sean Penn in Fair Game
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
George Clooney in The American or The Descendants or both
Brad Pitt in Tree of Life
Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
Denzel Washington and/or Tom Cruise in The Matarese Circle (what is happening with this movie anyway?)

Veteran Best Actor contenders:
Kevin Kline in The Extra Man
Michael Douglas in Solitary Man
Michael Douglas in Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps (most likely lead)
Robert Duvall in Get Low

“Because they May Actually Deserve It” – whether they are popular or the movie is liked or not
Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine
Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Michael Douglas in Solitary Man
Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
Leonardo DiCaprio in Shutter Island
James Franco in 127 Hours
Mel Gibson in The Beaver (well, you know, sans “other stuff”)

The difference between male and female contenders is quite breathtaking, isn’t it? There are so many more opportunities for men than for women – and moreover, yes, as with the female contenders, it’s a white, white, white world. There are very little Oscar opportunities at this stage of the game for people of color. That doesn’t mean they won’t emerge throughout the year. It just means that they aren’t being buzzed up as Oscar contenders sight unseen.