Dave Karger’s Risky Picks

EW’s Dave Karger has put out his own top ten Best Picture nominee predictions. This must also, like everything else, be taken with a huge grain of salt. Let’s face it, even in late November it’s still a shot in the dark – but it’s a lot easier in November than it is in early October. It’s always dangerous business to predict anything that hasn’t opened yet, nor been reviewed by critics. It really does make a difference – box office, buzz, acclaim all happens not in the moment you sit there watching a private screening, but after the thing is birthed, cord and all. Nonetheless – Karger puts down the usuals for most of them. But then he goes out on a limb for these:

5. How Do You Know? Here’s the one case where I’m apparently the most alone in my thinking, as no other participant has the film on his or her list. But I have faith in the upcoming Reese Witherspoon romantic company based on writer/director James L. Brooks’ selected track record (Broadcast News, Terms of Endearment) and the positive buzz I’ve been hearing about costar Paul Rudd’s performance. Here’s hoping it’s not another Spanglish.

10. Love and Other Drugs The Jake Gyllenhaal/Anne Hathaway comedic drama reminds me a lot of Up in the Air and Jerry Maguire (both past Best Picture nominees). And it’s perhaps the sexiest movie I’ve seen in years. It won’t be for everyone, but if most critics go for its blend of titillation and tragedy, then it’s a contender for one of the five “B-list slots.”

He does predict Hereafter, which I think is a good choice, personally. We don’t know if it will get a nomination — but it’s a much safer bet than either Love and Other Drugs or How Do You Know?

Here is what I know: It’s always better to predict movies you’ve seen. I am out on the limb with True Grit, but the Coens rarely disappoint. Jim Brooks, on the other hand, as much as I admire his work, IS hit and miss.

How Do You Know is also a comedy, starring — wait for it — comedy actors. And we know how that goes down with voters, right? As Good as It Gets, Terms of Endearment, Broadcast News all starred serious actors and vets. Yes, Jack Nicholson has a co-starring role, but the other castmembers? Paul Rudd? Owen Wilson? Put it this way: it’s going to have be REALLY good, meaning, all of the actors rise to the level of the challenge.

Broadcast News, Terms of Endearment and As Good As it Gets all had something fairly serious at stake. Cancer, the future of the news media, and Helen Hunt’s sick kid, not to mention Jack Nicholson’s obsessive/compulsive disorder. Is there anything at stake in this film except Reese Witherspoon not knowing which guy to choose?

Love and Other Drugs has been seen. The buzz is mixed. Ed Zwick doesn’t yet have a good track record with Academy voters. My feeling on this is that if it had the stuff, people would be seeing it. More people than just Dave Karger and a few others here and there. That worries me slightly.

If you are looking for filler, there are plenty of films that HAVE been seen that are worthy, like The Town, like Fair Game.

More Dave Karger here.