Gold Derby’s New Batch of Predix

Tom O’Neil queried a new group of folks to get their answers. Some of them are surprising, most continue the party line. Starting with Best Picture, he asked Tim Appelo (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indie Wire) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today):

I am only showing the top five here. You can head on over to Gold Derby to see the full list. You gotta love Keith for totally going against the grain. I love it that he has Biutiful on his top ten, even his top five!

Best Director after the cut.

To my mind, there are three directors who can win. Craig Kennedy was the first person to float the idea that Darren Aronofsky could win. My thinking on that was that David Lynch had never won and therefore, Aronofsky couldn’t. But here is what I now think about that – Aronofsky CAN win and the reason is the emotional impact Black Swan has. It is about creative people. If the voters allow themselves to relate, they might feel passionately enough to vote for him.

But really this is a two director race right now (with the Coens’ True Grit still waiting to be seen): David Fincher and Tom Hooper. Fincher directed a perfect film. It isn’t just perfect because it’s his pure vision. It is the essence of collaboration. Standing in Fincher and Sorkin’s way, though, is arrogance potentially. Sorkin in particular comes off as arrogant on camera. For someone who knows a lot about politics, he maybe hasn’t connected the two together that the Oscar race IS political. How much they “like you” comes into play. So, fuck them, he might think. This is MY ART he might think.¬† And I agree with him. I just know you can’t win thinking that way. His script is the best writing of the year, with Black Swan, Inception and 127 Hours coming in very close.¬† After that, for me, it’s Winter’s Bone, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Get Low, Hereafter.

The best thing Fincher and Sorkin can do is run a frontrunner’s campaign. Head down, keep it about the work, let the film win on its own merit, which it can do. The King’s Speech needs to do the opposite – turn up the heat. The Oscar race always comes down to laying films side by side. What films are going to stand out? If there were only five slots, they would be: The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Black Swan, Inception, 127 Hours or True Grit. They start to look like Oscar types, don’t they? What a stunning five those would be. I’m going to dig into this more tomorrow with the State of the Race piece but this gives you an idea of where I’m heading.