National Board of Review Preview And Contest

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The first awards group out of the gate is almost always the National Board of Review. Because of this, their choices can sometimes reflect the earlier phase of the Oscar race. We only really have last year’s ten Best Picture choices to the NBoR to see how closely they were aligned. But prior to last year, it was the norm that at least three eventual Best Picture nominees would be represented.

Like the HFPA (Golden Globes), the National Board of Review has a certain kind of taste. While many criticize both groups for not being “real critics,” that is perhaps the reason why they have traditionally been fairly good indicators of how the Oscars might go. They are still no match for the Critics Choice (BFCA). This, because the Critics Choice awards are closer in the timeline to the Oscars, and also because there are simply more members in the Critics Choice. The closer to the number 6,000 (or thereabouts) you get, the closer you’re going to reflect how a large group like the AMPAS might vote.

This year, I’m going to guess that the NBR goes something like:

The Social Network
Hereafter
127 Hours
The King’s Speech
Blue Valentine
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
The Kids Are All Right
The Town

Not sure they will have seen True Grit in time but if they did, it’s likely in. They love Clint Eastwood so Hereafter will be a major threat.¬† We will find out soon enough (December 2).

Either which way, it never hurts to have your film represented by this group.

Last year’s winners:

+Won Oscar, Bold nominated for Oscar

Best Film:
Up In The Air

Top Eleven Films (In alphabetical order):
An Education
(500) Days Of Summer
The Hurt Locker+
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Up In The Air
Where The Wild Things Are

Best Director:
Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Best Actor:
Morgan Freeman, Invictus and George Clooney, Up In The Air (tie)

Best Actress:
Carey Mulligan, An Education

Best Supporting Actor:
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress:
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air

Best Foreign Film:
A Prophet

Best Documentary:
The Cove+

Best Animated Feature:
Up+

Best Ensemble Cast:
It’s Complicated

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor:
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress:
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Best Original Screenplay:
Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up In The Air

Previous years:

Won NBR*, Won Oscar+

Top Ten of 2008
Slumdog Millionaire*+
Burn After Reading
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
Wall-E
The Wrestler
MISSING: The Reader

Top ten of 2007
No Country for Old Men* +
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
MISSING: There Will Be Blood

Top ten of 2006
Letters From Iwo Jima *
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed+
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags Of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes On A Scandal
The Painted Veil
Missing: The Queen

Top ten films in 2005
Good Night, And Good Luck‚Ä®*
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash+
A History of Violence
Match Point
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana
Walk the Line

Top ten in 2004
1. Finding Neverland*
2. The Aviator
3. Closer
4. Million Dollar Baby+
5. Sideways
6. Kinsey
7. Vera Drake
8. Ray
9. Collateral
10. Hotel Rwanda

Top ten films in 2003
Mystic River*
The Last Samurai
The Station Agent
21 Grams
House of Sand and Fog
Lost in Translation
Cold Mountain
In America
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander
Missing: The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (Best Picture winner absent from NBR’s radar, for shame!)+