The State of the Race: Going Money

There are heroes and anti-heroes in this race. There are social networks and black swans. There are kings and cowboys. There are fighters and lesbians. There are teen mothers and toys. There are dreams and nightmares. And through it all, there are going to be currents that run through the chosen films that reflect the currents within us.

The themes that run through this year’s contenders will ultimately reflect how people are feeling right here, right now, as we close out 2010. We know that Best Picture is almost never about Ms. Right, but Ms. Right Now. She is everything you ever wanted today: even if the love fades soon after, you will have that memory of who you were when you fell in love. And for the years to come you will look back fondly and remember how things used to be. Or you will regret it all and wish you’d had been using more of your brain and less of your other vital organs.

The weeks leading up to Christmas are usually a much more exciting time than the moments just before Academy voters turn in their ballots. By then, the new year has turned over. How will times have changed by then? How will that change reflect their vote? Does the money really matter, even if it didn’t matter last year? We live in bleak times. So much so that we can’t even seem to rile ourselves up enough to get mad about the crimes committed in last year’s Wall Street meltdown, or the freedoms taken away during the Valerie Plame scandal, or the tragic state of our educational system. In times such as these, we hunker down and look for vital signs of life.

There are two deciding factors in the end: what is the “best movie” and who has run the best campaign. Running an Oscar campaign is a lot like playing poker. You first have to know the game to play the game. There are some who are much better than others. But much of it is still to do with psyching out the opposition, and perhaps a little reverse psychology. If the Oscar race is about perception, then perception must be managed. Even still, you can play the game absolutely right and still lose Best Picture to the “best movie.” Sometimes it really does just come down to that elusive magic that sometimes happens when it’s the right script, the right actors and the right director.¬† It doesn’t happen often, maybe a small handful of times in a given year, but it is usually the kind of thing you can’t turn away from.

To find that movie you first have to look at why people, voters, get into the business in the first place. Do they get into the business to make money? Do they do it because they can’t do anything else? Do they do it because they want to be part of something potentially great? Do they do it to be on the cutting edge of technology? Or, do they do it to change the world? It is probably some combination of all of those things, with a healthy dose of ego and tribal mating positioning thrown in for good measure.

In the end, the films that are rewarded are usually done so because a movie was made that everyone in that room wishes they’d made. That is perhaps the main difference between Academy voters and critics/fans. Critics and fans see the films are being something made FOR them. Voters see the films as something they themselves might have made -wrote, directed, acted in, designed costumes for, engineered sound for, etc. That is a subtle but significant difference in perspective.

That is also why the directors are so important, and why the director is almost always the star of the Best Picture race. But it is also why the editors and actors can be strong forces, too: They vote for what they want to be doing with their lives. This is why it was The Hurt Locker all the way last year. Only a small percentage of those voters would have said that Avatar was the film they wish they’d made. The Hurt Locker was a film they COULD HAVE made and will likely make in the future.

You’re also dealing with people who know other people who made these movies and those alliances and partnerships are strong, unbreakable and must be factored in; a film made by a popular director with popular stars is going to do a lot better than one with unknowns.

But fans and critics see the whole thing differently; they look at what is most appealing to THEM as consumers. I’ll never forget sitting a dinner table with eight other women talking about the Oscar race. It was last year but it could have been any year in the last few — they were talking up Avatar and I was saying to them, say, have you seen The Hurt Locker? But it could have been There Will Be Blood versus No Country for Old Men or even going all the way back to A Beautiful Mind versus Lord of the Rings — those of us in the Oscar watching world knew that Ron Howard making good was a much more powerful force than Lord of the Rings becoming such a huge fan favorite; it is, even after all of these years, hard to get this message across: Academy voters are not critics. Academy voters are not fans. They are industry peers.

But the Academy will take notice if they see a good movie that also happens to have been one that they themselves admire for being such a success, both with critics and/or at the box office.   This is when critics and the public come into play. They fan the flames.

The way a movie benefits most during the Oscar race is if the movie is a critical darling, or an accidental hit. Level of difficulty also comes into play. This year has two accidental hits. The first is The Town, Ben Affleck’s bank robber movie, which seems to tap into a zeitgeist all its own: the one that has Americans struggling to pay their mortgage. We watch the money, we root for the bank robber to flee the corruption and get the girl. The Town is heading upwards of $100 million. That would seem to ensure it a spot on Oscar’s Big Ten. And it very well might, in the end. Big ensemble cast that should play well with SAG, actor-turned-director is a common and popular thread weaving through all of Academy history. Pundits seem to continually underestimate The Town because they just don’t think it’s good enough. I’m here to tell you, not only is it good enough, but is has almost everything an Oscar contender needs to get in. If it weren’t for The Social Network, I would say The Town, if played right, might be one of the strongest contenders heading into the race. So why didn’t I predict it when I turned in my last Gurus of Gold? Because I hadn’t really thought it through, and I figured The Fighter might take that slot. We will have to see how The Fighter plays, whether it gets good reviews and strong box office.

There is a film that has already been tested by audiences and critics — David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin’s dazzling dive into the forces that drive human nature with The Social Network, a film that is a success not because it’s about Facebook (no one cares), not because it stars Justin Timberlake (he’s great, but that’s an afterthought), not because it is a “traditional Oscar movie,” but because it is a GOOD movie. Fincher is already a greatly admired director, and somewhat overdue. Sorkin is greatly admired, and well overdue. It is quite possibly a great movie. Is it a great movie the same way Black Swan and Inception are great movies? Probably not. It isn’t going to create its own genre by turning tradition on its ear. But it is the complete package nonetheless: the best written script of the year, the tight-as-a-drum directing, Fincher reigned in is so far the best Fincher, and finally a cast that manages to elevate the material. Finally, due to strong reviews, and mostly great word of mouth, The Social Network, despite its lack of promotion from Facebook and its 500 million users, and despite its lack of stars, and despite its “geek culture” subject matter is edging upwards of $90 mil. That makes it the great Hollywood success story of the year.

BUT – people will say we don’t care about the characters. That no one likes these snarky little brats and therefore why would they vote for them. They didn’t much care for Eve Harrington either and look at how that one turned out. The combination of good and evil is a theme older than Hollywood, and it works. It just works. Eduardo Saverin is the character worth caring about. We even care about Mark Zuckberg too because, while he may be ruthless, we are secretly rooting for the geek to triumph in the end. We are also watching the money. Never underestimate the power of a movie about money when times are tough. The Town, because they steal and get away with millions, and The Social Network because we watch $10,000 turn into billions. This is new money, American style.

If you asked them, though, they would say that they voted for the film they liked the best. The “best movie,” as a voter once told me. So, what is going to be the best movie across all branches? The film most likely to fire on all cylinders with the most voters hasn’t even opened yet. It is a great strategy to have it in place before it opens because, theoretically, this will bring people into the theater in droves. Those who are drawn to The King’s Speech will go on Oscar buzz, Colin Firth, classic Hollywood entertainment and word of mouth. It needs to, and likely will, make lots of money at the box office. It is driven by two of the year’s best performances in Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush – two masters of the craft at the top of their game. We care about them, we root for them, we hope that the King can overcome his disability and speak at last!

BUT — it’s a British story, not an American one. It hasn’t been reviewed by the major critics yet and it hasn’t been tested at the box office. The Oscar pundits still put it on top of their lists based on several audience awards (specifically, Toronto) already and their own personal impression of the film, believing that it is the only one that will appeal across all age, sex and occupational lines. The King’s Speech is a traditional weepy, but has a modern current running through it in that its director made a big splash here in Los Angeles with the John Adams series for HBO. In many ways, the force of that project is what is driving The King’s Speech much more than the film itself: the need to celebrate Tom Hooper’s ability to reveal historical events in a vital new light is what will ultimately give The King’s Speech the win, if the Academy chooses to go that way. There is nothing offensive about it. It only asks that we love these people.

It is the Coen Brothers’ True Grit that still looms large over the Best Picture race, and it isn’t about money but about revenge. It could be the darkest thing we see all year. It could be Coens Lite. It could be the movie that speaks to us at just the right time, capturing the hearts of critics and voters alike and in an instant, Million Dollar Baby style, come swooping in at the last minute to steal the Big Prize. But with that, too, there are just too many question marks right now to count on anything, though I do appreciate Movie City News’ David Poland’s balls-out predicting it to win. That shows guts, but it goes against my religion to predict a movie to win that I haven’t yet seen. I am always wrong when I do.

Danny Boyle, as usual, brings the exuberance and that is, in turn, bringing dollars to the box office. In limited release, the film is playing like gangbusters.¬† And it’s true that the troubles of a hiker who gets into himself a jam may not be the most universal of sentiment now. The Kids Are All Right is groundbreaking enough, and good enough, to make it in. Winter’s Bone is about the struggles of a teenager who has to hold her family together and manages to triumph on sheer strength of will.

I suspect, though, after the low grossing Hurt Locker swept last year’s Oscar race that it might be once again time for them to go money. That makes it worth looking again at the year’s box office powerhouses to see how many of them have a realistic shot at being both the people’s choices and Hollywood’s bread and butter: creative films that also do well for the family business. Here are the Oscar crossover top five:

1. Toy Story 3 $ 414 million and counting
2. Inception $291 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon $217 million
4. Shutter Island $ 128 million
5. The Town $90 million and counting
6. The Social Network $87 million and counting

These five films SHOULD be recognized in the top ten. Yet only three of them are slam dunks at this point.¬† Both Shutter Island and The Town are not on the lists of Oscar pundits, which could mean something and it could mean nothing. If you imagine that True Grit and The Fighter don’t become players (which we all assume they will), does this mean that opens up a spot for Shutter Island or The Town? I can almost see The Town being the more popular choice, since it is one audiences seem to really love.

We then have to ask ourselves why are these movies making so much money? Is it the strength of their stories? Is it the strength of their stars? Which one of them is there because it’s simply a great movie? There looks to me an inclination to drift from the world of reality and into one of fantasy, not unusual for audiences to do in times of great strife. How ironic, then, that so many films set to take the Oscar race by storm ARE true stories.

All of these films, except The Social Network, are films that dwell in and out of reality. Inception and Shutter Island are full blown dreamscapes. Audiences had no problem dipping deep into an imaginary world and carrying that conception through to the conclusion. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon are animated films that represent a fake world but with very true stories to tell: Toy Story 3 is about growing up and letting go; How to Train Your Dragon is about letting go of fear and ignorance.

The Town is puts a criminal in the hero’s seat and has him getting away with the crime and managing to woo his hostage in the meantime. It goes against everything we know about right and wrong yet somehow we end up rooting for him, to say nothing of the fact that he puts the money to good use. That makes him a modern day Robin Hood. Audiences wanted Robin Hood this year, they just wanted him dressed up as a bank robber. Affleck’s film, though not exactly capturing the critics’, is a triumph not just because Affleck proved he has the chops to play with the big boys, but because it is a film that succeeded on word of mouth; people on the street are talking about it and how good it was.

The Social Network, too, is a water cooler movie. As Scott Feinberg said in our last Oscar Poker podcast, it has a must-see factor built in. Not only must-see but must-pay-to-see right now. This is, I suppose, what surprises me about my colleagues not buying into it for Best Picture. And some of them seem to be saying The King’s Speech will be a better sell. Some of them are saying “any movie BUT The Social Network but Fincher for Best Director.” It is always advisable to follow these rules: 1) Follow the director, 2) ask yourself why can’t it win. If the reason it can’t win is anything but “it’s not good enough” then it isn’t a strong enough reason. If it is good enough, by a great many people’s standards, it CAN win. If you ask yourself if it’s good enough and the answer is, well, no. It isn’t as good as this other movie then your point is valid. There are such things as divisive films, Black Swan will be one of these.

Kris Tapley brought up something Steve Pond said at the screening for Black Swan – it will invoke enough of a passionate response to land at number on many ballots, which almost guarantees it a Best Picture nomination. I personally think it would be in if there were only five Best Picture nominees. I think it’s THAT good. And if you asked me can it win, I would say, sure it can. It would be a bold choice for the Academy, but they’ve gone bold before (way back in the 1970s). The reason being, it IS good enough.

I always like this dynamic we’re enjoying because the pundits don’t have The Social Network at number one. If they did, the film would be in trouble. That’s not to say The King’s Speech is in trouble – it still has to open and all of this Oscar talk is actually a positive. Remember, there has to always be room for a film to go up. It can’t start at the top because it has nowhere to go but down. Momentum must build during the Oscar race. Speeches must be overflowing with humility and gratitude so that people feel good voting for you.¬†¬† But if you are already a winner there is simply no fun in awarding you anything. That is, unless we’re talking about a moment when an overdue director (like, say, the Coens or Scorsese) happens to hit the sweet spot with the right film at the right time. Then the vote will always be for the win on down the line, up to and including the Oscar ceremony.

In the end, the best pic ten still looks like this to me:

1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Inception
4. 127 Hours
5. Black Swan
6. Toy Story 3
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. The Fighter
9. True Grit
10. Winter’s Bone

Since we’re not sure about The Fighter and True Grit yet, those two slots, I figure, might be filled with one or two of the following:

The Town
Another Year
Shutter Island
Hereafter
The Way Back
Get Low
Fair Game

I think it’s always important to start with what you know and work back from there.¬† I am seeing illusions everywhere. I have no choice but to keep my feet planted solidly on the ground.