Comprehensive Critics and Precursor Charts

AD reader Andrew has devised another great system of charts to help us navigate the swampy morass we’ve all sailed into together. Contenders in each category are ranked according to points earned from over 50 critics groups, with handy bar charts to illustrate whose dick is biggest which movie dominates.

It’s basically a slightly modified total number of wins and noms an entry got, but it takes some factors into account, like whether the noms came from small or large awards groups, and whether they were wins, noms, or came in 3rd place, 8th place, etc…

We’ll let Andrew explain the details and answer questions in the comments. Check out the links to 5 detailed charts after the cut, along with notes outlining the process and a few of his observations about the results.

Best Picture
Best Director, Screenplay, and Acting
Best Cinematography, Editing, Animated, Docs
Best Foreign, Score, Song, Sound
Best Visual Effect, Make-up, Costumes

The “Score” for each entry (film, actor or actress) in each category is a sum of the points given to each nomination (or win) that entry grabbed. These points were given based on two factors:

1) The rank of the nomination. The higher the rank the more points given. Some ranks are easy to figure out: award winners are 1st, runner ups (when mentioned) are 2nd. Some groups rank their nominees from n.1 to n.5 or 10 so those are also straightforward. For instances where we have 1 winner and 4 unranked nominees (which is the most common format), we know that the 4 nominees can be anything from 2nd to 5th, so I give them an average rank of 3.5. So you can see that a nominee ina field of 10 slots gets less points than one included among just three (because the latter is more privileged). In all cases, the difference in points isn’t too big. For example, in the Best Picture category (which is 10 slots), being 10th gets you x points. Being 9th gets you 2x points so that’s double the amount, which makes a difference. But being 8th gets you 3x points, 7th means 4x points, etc… so the differences matter less as you get into a more advanced position. It makes little difference whether you’re 3rd or 4th (7 points vs. 8). That’s because you’re already in a secure place, whereas as 10th or 9th you were close to being left out. In the standard format of 1 winner + 4 nominees, winning gets you just twice as much points as being a nominee.

2) The size of the awards group at which an entry grabbed its nod or win. I use a logarithmic scale for this, which basically means that, again, differences in points are very much lessened rather than amplified. It makes no difference whether the group counts 100 members or 200 members, but 5,000 compared to 30 matters. Examples: a nod from a 90-member group gets you 1.5 as much points as one from a 20-members group. 850 members is double the points of 30 members. A BAFTA nod (6500 members) has 3 times the weight of a nod from 20 members.

Now some quick observations about the results:

• – In Best Picture the 2 movies battling it out for the 10th spot are The Kids Are Allright and The Town.
• – In one of the closest fights, 3 directors have almost even chances of getting the last 2 spot: the Coens, Danny Boyle and Tom Hooper.
• – Best Actor: Ryan Gosling seems to have taken the lead for 5th spot ahead of Robert Duvall. Not a big difference though.
• – Lesley Manville is ranked 4th in best Actress! Some progress. At the start of the race she was almost unnoticed.
• – The 5th spot in Best Editing is quite open and interesting. Scott Pilgrim, The King’s Speech and Shutter Island all have a legitimate shot.
• – Biggest gaps between 1st and 2nd spot are in the Animated category and Adapted screenplay. Toy Story 3 and TSN miles ahead.