The State of the Race: Define Best

As we head into the end of the final balloting phase, and we all start into our predictions, we all have the same conversations about the Oscar race.  Here is a sampling of the kinds of things you hear:

“The movie made a lot of money so of course she has it in the bag.”
“The vote might split, allowing her to squeak by.”
“It’s the kind of movie Oscar voters love.”
“He’s due.”
“He didn’t give the best performance of the year but he’ll win because they love that movie so much.”
“They don’t like him at all. ¬†He can’t win.”
“It’s the prettiest movie so it will win art direction.”
“This isn’t his best work but he’ll win to reward the film, which they love.”
“They love him.”
“The loudest movie always wins Sound.”
“It’s too weird for the Academy.”
“It’s too cold for the Academy.”
“It’s too smart for the Academy.”

Some of these rules have been shattered in recent years as the Academy’s choices for Best Picture were truly memorable, rather brave considering, and altogether out of character. ¬†But, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum, all of that is about to change as we venture back to the Academy days of yore. ¬†The “sweepie” is back.

Obviously there are some unfair wins that are easier to choke down than others. ¬†There really is nowhere else to go when one follows this train of thought to inevitable conclusion that there is nothing wrong with a group that makes its own rules and marinates in its own choices for years to come. ¬†No, the fault lies with us – like the line goes in Manhattan, “You always think that you’re gonna be the one that makes ’em act different.” ¬†It is not our job to make them act different; we have no power to make them act different; and really, no right to tell them to act different. ¬†This is their choice, their preference, their history in the making.

And to discover how they explain some of their choices from the horse’s mouth, check out the new page on the Academy’s site with various members talking about some of the individual nominees.

I thought I’d dig into the major categories, with various thoughts on what could be best (as opposed to ‘Best’), what will probably win and how little I know about the sound categories.

The Daily Beast has come out with yet another “Why the Social Network should win Best Picture article,“ in hopes of explaining to people who just don’t seem to get what all of the fuss is about – not that it will make any difference. ¬†The heart wants what it wants. ¬†Early in the race, I assumed that The Social Network was the kind of movie you don’t walk past, that anyone with a thinking brain would surely be able to recognize the brilliance therein – the writing, the directing, the acting, the music, the pacing, the editing, the cinematography – everyone at the top of their game, winning a record number of critics awards, a director with an impressive body of work, a writer whose been a major contribution to both American television and film — cut to, it didn’t make them cry so it can’t win. ¬†”Strong men also cry.” Is it any wonder I am slowly dipping into madness?

But I’m not going to talk about The Social Network again, although something in me wants to until I shout with my last breath from the rooftops what a huge mistake it is for this or any voting body to anoint anything but The Social Network for the Best Picture of 2010 – it is a once-in-a-lifetime holy shit idea that what is about to happen is about to happen. ¬†But, for the sake of my readers, and for my own sanity, I’m going to instead talk about the other categories, where there is just as much potential for contenders winning for the wrong reasons. ¬†But just to make one last point about The King’s Speech – it isn’t that I don’t think it’s a good film, or that people love it right now, or that it was the one they “liked” best; it’s that choosing Best Picture of the Year should be about more than just “this is what I like right now.” It has to be. Otherwise, why not just call it “Best Picture of the last three months of the Oscar race.” Or “Best emotionally moving picture of the year”? ¬†But – I have to stop whining – I promised to stop and now I shall stop.

Anyway, onward and upward and I’m so ready to put 2010 in the can.

Best Actress

There are five worthy performances here. ¬†Natalie Portman’s, I’ve said, was one of the best performances I’d ever seen. I still believe that’s true. ¬†I surely think it’s one of the best of the year. ¬†But – define “best.” ¬†Best to me means she reached for a character that was difficult to pull off and she nailed it so that she was transformed. ¬†To me, Natalie Portman disappeared and Nina emerged. ¬†Of the five performances, hers is the only one I can say that about. ¬†The other four are brilliant too, all of them. ¬†But there are shades of themselves there, which isn’t a bad thing. ¬†Reaching deep into yourself to achieve heights of emotion IS acting too. ¬†But Portman? ¬†It’s in another league entirely. ¬†This is a hard-working actress who plunged into the depths of her character to the point where it did her physical harm. ¬†She will win and she deserves to win.

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Who is best: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should have been nominated: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Who’s Overdue: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Best Actor

Colin Firth will win for the King’s Speech and you could say it’s a deserving performance. ¬†It is his performance, in fact, along with Geoffrey Rush’s that is driving this film to its major wins. ¬†Firth has never really laid himself this bare before — I can say I was more emotionally moved by his performance last year in A Single Man. ¬†I was so moved, in fact, that I had to watch it twice over — the same day. ¬†But I get the thing about his performance in The King’s Speech – specifically, two scenes – the first when he sings the abuse suffered at the hands of his nanny (do we even know if this was true or not?) and the other when he has a crisis of confidence and breaks down sobbing that he can’t be King. ¬†Those two scenes kind of seal the deal.

So yes, it’s a career best for Firth. ¬†BUT there is one performance in the five that is better than Firth’s and it’s Javier Bardem’s in Biutiful. ¬†It won’t win because, good lord, how can anything beat The King’s Speech? ¬†And I’m not even saying Firth doesn’t deserve to win because he’s way overdue, is brilliant in the film and everyone (including myself) loves him to pieces. No complaint there. ¬†BUT BUT BUT Bardem’s is the better performance, in my opinion. ¬†Best doesn’t always win. ¬†But again, winning isn’t always about best.

Who Will Win: Colin Firth
Who Should Win: Colin Firth (for all of the reasons stated above)
Who is best: Javier Bardem
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Who’s overdue? Colin Firth

Best Director

The most absurd of all potential outcomes is in the Best Director race. It is shaping up to be one of those years we highlight for years and years to come because in that lineup you have the best American directors imaginable, a totally great sampling of brilliant work. ¬†And then you have one British newbie – a well respected TV director, with one feature under his belt – a great guy, a worthy nominee. He’s going us up against Joel and Ethan Coen, Darren Aronofsky, David O. Russell, and of course, David Fincher and Hooper is the one who is going to win. ¬†Some think there might be a chance here for Fincher to squeak through but we know already that they “don’t like” Fincher and they “don’t like” The Social Network.

Will Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Who Was Best: Fincher.  Second in line would Aronofsky.
Should have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Who’s overdue? Fincher, Aronofsky, Russell

Best Supporting Actor

I may not be the biggest fan of The Fighter as a complete film but there is no denying that Christian Bale turned out one of the year’s best performances as Dickie. ¬†If he loses it will be for two reasons. ¬†1) He’s not starring in the Big Sweepie, The King’s Speech, and 2) They don’t “like” him enough. ¬†It won’t be because his performance wasn’t good enough, everyone knows it was. ¬†We have to manage our expectations with the Academy like we manage our expectations of our relatives at Thanksgiving. ¬†We have to accept their limitations and make our predictions accordingly. ¬†But everyone is thinking it — everyone knows that they often give their awards out for exactly the wrong reasons because their vote is anonymous and it is almost always emotional: they vote with heart. ¬†That is why my song dedication to the Academy will always be Neil Diamond’s Turn on Your Heart Light.

Will Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Who Was Best: Bale. He blows out the competition so much so that one forgets, almost, who else was even nominated in that category
Should have been nominated: Matt Damon in True Grit
Who’s overdue: Good Christ, Bale

Supporting Actress

This is a tricky one — the reason being, Hailee Steinfeld is really a lead performance, so it’s almost impossible to judge her work against the others, who are all actual supporting characters. Best is always a matter of perception and subjectivity when the actors in the category, more or less, gave equally brilliant performances. The three standouts, I think, are Melissa Leo, Amy Adams and Steinfeld. I know a lot of people thought Adams was better than Leo. And many believe Steinfeld is better than all of them. In this category, though, I think that the one who deserves to win isn’t because hers is my favorite performance of the five — but I think Melissa Leo should win because I’m disgusted that any Academy member would stand in judgment of her for having put out those ads. Since winning is rarely about the best anyway, why not hand out the award to someone who really did turn herself inside out for a role? She isn’t the character voters “like” best; that would be Bonham-Carter, Steinfeld and Amy Adams.

Will Win: Either Hailee Steinfeld or Melissa Leo
Should win: Melissa Leo
Who Was best: Hailee Steinfeld as a lead performance, I’ll go with Leo as the best supporting
Should have been nominated: Marion Cotillard for Inception
Who’s Overdue: Leo

Original Screenplay

Of course, David Seidler is owed this prize. ¬†And who could ever object? Not only is Seidler just the coolest dude to ever walk the earth but he’s a great storyteller and raconteur. ¬†Moreover, this was a lifelong dream of his, to have The King’s Speech made into a movie – so charming is this story, in fact, that it’s dragging with it the Best Picture win. ¬†Every film needs an “Oscar story” and this one has the best of the lot. ¬†The Social Network doesn’t have one except “this movie will never win Best Picture.” Compare that to a guy who had a stutter growing up, whose hero was Bertie, who then had to wait 25 years for the Queen Mother to die before bringing the script out to be made. ¬†Is it a great script? Not really. It’s good, absolutely. I think he lays it on a bit thick at times but hey, how can you argue with a story that has moved so many people? You can’t.

Will Win: David Seidler’s The King’s Speech
Should Win: Seidler
Who was best: Christopher Nolan, Inception — just on sheer ambition alone
Who’s overdue: Nolan

Adapted Screenplay

I don’t think anyone really wants me to write this part but I will. ¬†Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Network really is an original screenplay if there ever was one. It has to technically be adapted because it was written at the same time Accidental Billionaires was written and though they did their own independent research, much of the same point of view of incidents is the same. ¬†Is it “Important”? ¬†I don’t know how you define that. ¬†To me, any time someone writes such a rich, dense, brilliantly insightful, perfectly executed screenplay it is important — not just because it is wholly entertaining and will be quoted by me and others for the next twenty years, but because it sets the bar for other writers to aspire to write great dialogue and map their story. ¬†The greatest screenplays ever written never won Oscars. It’s just the fact of the matter. Some of the good ones have — Citizen Kane won Screenplay, deservedly. ¬†But Dr. Strangelove, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas – none of these won screenplay. ¬†It’s a miracle, let’s face it, when a great script does win. Usually it’s swept along on the strength of the Best Picture.

And it’s mildly frustrating that Sorkin’s script is in this category because the other nominees really are adaptations, like the Coens True Grit and Winter’s Bone and 127 Hours, etc.

Will Win: Who the hell knows at this point – I certainly don’t. ¬†If they really “hate” The Social Network, by god, anything is possible.
Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
What was Best: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network (among a group of very very good adaptations)
Who’s overdue: Sorkin

Original Score

I’m torn between Hans Zimmer’s positively brilliant score for Inception and Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross’ score for The Social Network. ¬†The former is heartstoppingly beautiful, more traditional and hard to ignore. ¬†The latter is so integral to The Social Network one cannot separate the score from the film. ¬†That, to me, defines the purpose of a score, which is why I’d probably go with The Social Network. I would never presume to know which was “best” in this category because it’s something I really know nothing about – scoring films. ¬†I’ve been schooled for many years in acting, writing, even a bit in directing (Columbia Grad school) but scoring? ¬†Nada. ¬†So I can only go by what I sense as a viewer. ¬†And it’s really those two that stand out.

Will Win: The King’s Speech (as the sweepie sweeps)
Should Win: Either Inception or The Social Network
Which Was Best: The Social Network (in my opinion)
Who’s overdue: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech

Art Direction

The truth of the matter here is that art direction rarely wins because it’s the best art direction – we know this to be true. ¬†You have to think: Art Direction based on the strongest candidates for Best Picture. ¬†Since the entire membership votes for the winners we have to assume that people who know nothing about art direction are the majority here. ¬†This is why when predicting art direction you can’t say “what had the best art direction”? ¬†You have to say either “which was prettiest” or “what movie did they like best.”

Will Win: The King’s Speech (as the sweepie sweeps)
Should Win: Inception (intricate, complex, dazzling, unique), Alice in Wonderland (breathtaking)
Which was best: Inception (in my know-nothing opinion), Alice in Wonderland

Editing

There is only one film here that has worthy editing to win and that’s The Social Network. ¬†The others are there, I think, because the editors liked those movies best. ¬†The Social Network’s editing actually deserves to win. ¬†I don’t know a lot about editing but one thing I do know – these editors have timed the cuts to the music and to the music of the dialogue. ¬†And I’ve never seen anyone do that – either as the director (Fincher) or the editors under the direction. I also like Black Swan’s editing and The Fighter’s. ¬†Both are standouts too. ¬†But The Social Network’s rules. ¬†This might be the one category it actually does win, although the sweepie sweeps!

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Which was best: The Social Network

Cinematography

Sometimes, because you’ve screwed up so many times, you have to make up for it. ¬†And in this case, Roger Deakins is overdue for a win — this is probably the only category where someone who’s overdue really should win. ¬†Is it Deakins’ best work? ¬†I don’t know if I’m qualified to answer that. ¬†But I will say that even Deakins at his medium best is better than most at their best. ¬†He probably should have won for The Man Who Wasn’t There, but if he wins for True Grit who is going to complain? ¬†His work on True Grit is, as usual, absolutely stunning. One only need watch the last scene when Rooster is riding along with Mattie under the stars. Or the scene with the man dressed in the bear suit, or the way the shootouts are done from so far away. Other great lensing this year – The Social Network – positively stunning, The King’s Speech – yes, here is one where I wouldn’t complain if they won (if they weren’t up against Deakins, that is), and of course, the one that should probably be winning without Deakins in the mix, Inception.

Will Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Should Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Which was Best: Gonna have to go with all five.  The cinematographers branch rarely gets it wrong.
Who’s Overdue: “Do I have to say his name?”

Animated Feature

Again, Toy Story 3 will win here because it made over $400 million, because it closes out a brilliant series, because it is the crowning achievement of Pixar. ¬†Film to film, though, just on their own, How to Train Your Dragon is, to my mind, the better movie – better writing, more moving and engaging story, wholly original (to my mind). ¬†No one is going to complain if Toy Story 3 wins — it’s a great movie and is nominated in multiple categories, like Picture, Screenplay, etc. ¬†Truly, it can’t lose.

Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Toy Story 3
Which was Best: How to Train Your Dragon or The Illusionist

Random thoughts on other categories

Doc Feature -¬†In my opinion, the best documentary of 2010 wasn’t even nominated – and that’s The Tillman Story. ¬†I have not seen all of the five nominees yet – so I will withhold judgment until I do.
Foreign Language – ditto. ¬†I haven’t seen them all yet so I can’t begin to judge.
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing – I don’t know how it will go down, honestly. ¬†I have a feeling True Grit will win here – gunfire and all of that. ¬†But I don’t know enough to contribute anything of value.
Visual Effects – not worth discussing – Inception wins, should win, will win – and wins walking through the door.
Doc Short – I’ve seen them all except The Warriors of Quigang – which I’ve seen mostly through. ¬†My favorite is Poster Girl but my favorite never wins. ¬†I would predict Warriors because it is truly horrifying. ¬†I defer on most of these categories to Kris Tapley at Incontention. ¬†One should just copy his predictions because he always gets them right. I do not know anything about anything. Animated and Live Action are next up – haven’t watched them yet.
Best Song – it’s a category I’ve mostly given up on and think is pretty much useless to the Academy Awards and should probably be dumped.
Makeup – Again, who’s to know. ¬†I will guess that The Wayback gets it just on prestige alone. ¬†The Wolfman probably is the best, though.

Final thought – Either which way, the 2010 Oscar race is one for the record books. ¬†It’s the good, the bad and the ugly. ¬†Frankly, February 27th can’t get here soon enough. I’m ready to put the past behind us. ¬†After a full year of writing about the dazzling cinema offered up in 2010 – after digging down deep into the themes offered up, the comparatively daring mainstream studio fare – Inception, The Social Network, Black Swan, Winter’s Bone, the Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, The Fighter, True Grit — these are just jaw-dropping films with unique stories told thrillingly well. ¬†The King’s Speech has it over all of them in terms of an “Oscar story” and in terms of being the most moving, meaning: you root for the characters, you are involved with them and want to see them succeed. ¬†Emotional decisions, I fear, do not last. ¬†If you are going to present to the world something that has the words engraved on it, “Best Picture of the year,” you’d better be sure that you have thought that through. ¬†Don’t ya think?