The State of the Race: One More for My Baby, One More for the Road

As we close out Oscars 2010, with an an ending predicted but not yet determined, it’s starting to feel a little … off. ¬†Something feels weird about the potential win for Best Picture. ¬†There feels to me to be a lot of heat around The Social Network. ¬†I know this defies logic in every way, and I know that when they call Best Picture it’s going to be The King’s Speech, but some little tiny needling bit of — what, wishful thinking? Hope? ¬†Hope, the thing with feathers that perches on the soul.

Or is it the possibility that the Oscars will want to undo the damage caused when the DGA handed out their award to Tom Hooper. ¬†Hooper is a fine director, a very good one – The King’s Speech is a fine movie, a very good one – but it’s so hard to fathom that in 2010, when the Academy itself is going all social networky, when our President has called upon all Americans to start innovating, start rebuilding that they will pick the British film set in 1937 about the monarchy, rather than the film that is such an American story, made by American filmmakers. ¬†There is just that tiny little niggling thing that has always been there that tells me The Social Network is clearly the better film and that it will win. ¬†So if it does win, here is why I think it might, even after all is said and done.

Manohla Dargis at the New York Times, David Poland at Movie City News, and Kenneth Turan at the Los Angeles Times have all said that the idea that The Social Network was ever the frontrunner was merely a media-created and perpetuated myth. ¬†Even though they haven’t been digging into film awards history like we have, and they apparently have no idea that this year a nearly 60 year precedent will be broken — so, for the first time ever, it can be said that a film can win every major critic award there is (not just Picture but Director and Screenplay) and not win Best Picture. ¬†If that comes to pass, from here on out in the film awards race it can be said, really and truly, that the critics do not matter. ¬†This is not only a severe blow to the critics, who really don’t need more marginalizing right now, but it’s also a blow to the Oscars – it is a move in the wrong direction. ¬†The King’s Speech is very well reviewed, indeed. ¬†It is not a bomb – it’s not Crash or The Blind Side. It’s a perfectly respectable film. ¬†It’s just not better than five other films in the lineup. ¬†And this is where The Social Network struggled with the guilds – it was hurt by the support, I’ll bet, from non-King’s Speech supporters – those who liked Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter and True Grit better – and there are many.

I suspect, and I will probably be proven wrong, that if The Social Network, or even Fincher, pulls it out, it will be because those splinter groups decided to rally behind The Social Network instead. ¬†It’s the John Kerry/George Bush/Ralph Nader paradigm possibly. ¬†Then again, maybe they don’t care about who wins and want to simply vote for whom they like. We’ll never know. ¬†What we do know is that The King’s Speech has everything going for it heading into the race — great people behind it who have been doing the monkey dance and then some — people who seem to want to win Oscars, unlike the Social Network team, and it’s a feelgood movie that just swept the guilds. ¬†There is no reason for anyone to vote for The Social Network other than the pure and simple truth: it is the better film.

So if Steven Spielberg calls out The Social Network to win, by some total freak occurrence, I will put it down to: splinter groups at the DGA.  When the film won the DGA I think it might have shocked people enough to change their minds about the two films.  The Social Network, with its 60-year stat that is hard to ignore.  Still, smart money is, of course, on the Brit flick.

Someone sent me an email recently that said that it was “known” around town that in England Tom Hooper was less regarded. ¬†And in America, Fincher was less regarded. ¬†Are these people kindergartners? ¬†Are they really voting that way, like children in elementary school? ¬†I myself would never want to belong to a voting group that judges films on how much they “like” the director. ¬†That goes for the BAFTA and it goes for the BAFTAMPAS. ¬†Perhaps we can never hold people accountable for their votes because no one ever has to explain them or take responsibility for them. ¬†Perhaps it is just human nature.

But none of this really matters all that much, folks. ¬†It just doesn’t. ¬†The real problems are in Libya and Egypt, Christchurch — the Oscars? ¬†It’s just a circus, a homecoming dance, another form of entertainment. ¬†The King’s Speech is a perfectly fine Best Picture winner. ¬†For the two main performances alone it is a worthy winner. ¬†Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush more than make up for the film’s weaknesses. ¬†So we’ll celebrate them this Sunday and sift through the aftermath throughout the following year. ¬†Remember when The Hurt Locker and Avatar reached such a frenzied debate we thought it would never end? ¬†Well, it ended fairly abruptly, didn’t it?

2010 was one of the best years for film and Oscar that I’ve ever seen go down. ¬†Visionary, exciting work — much of it that didn’t even make it into the Oscar race. ¬†The Social Network is still a movie I will watch, commit every line to memory, and marvel at its excellence whether those 6,000 Academy members agree or not: I think the critics got it way, way right, as did the NBR the BFCA and even the HFPA. ¬†I will return to Inception again to live its thrilling, mysterious love story. ¬†True Grit, Black Swan and Winter’s Bone — simply magnificent work. ¬†Who can complain with such Best Picture nominees? I daresay it might be one of the best in their 83-year history. ¬†It gives 1941 a run for its money.

For my part I’m ready to let go of this year and wish it a fond goodbye. ¬†I am, despite it all, happy for Hooper, Seidler and especially Harvey Weinstein who is back on top with a vengeance. ¬†He came, he saw, he cleaned up. ¬†Weinstein, despite his rather creepy ability to find and tickle the emotional sweet spot of Academy voters, is good for the Oscar race ultimately. ¬†He’s not afraid to say with conviction, “Inglourious Basterds will win Best Picture,” as he did last year. ¬†Who else could ever make such an outlandish claim?

Even if people still want to treat us sleazy Oscar bloggers like the red light district of entertainment journalism, as they pass by us, look in our windows and occasionally indulge in the immoral offerings here, I want to give a shout out to those writers who cover the Oscar race so well: Dave Karger, Steve Pond, Anne Thompson, Jeff Wells, Katey Rich, Ed Douglas, David Poland, Kris Tapley, Tom O’Neil, Nat Rogers, Brad Brevet, Scott Feinberg, and who am I forgetting? ¬†I am especially wowed by our own Ryan Adams, who is brilliant beyond words. ¬†And if I may stroll out of the red light district and into university square I also love the great writers of film out there who illuminate them in unexpected, insightful ways: Marshall Fine, Manohla Dargis, Kenneth Turan, AO Scott, Karina Longworth, Kim Voynar, Bob Mondello, Glenn Kenny, Glenn Whipp, Roger Ebert, Frank Rich, David Denby, Richard Brody, Edward Copeland, Matt Mazar, Craig Kennedy — there are so many more to be found on Twitter. ¬†Film criticism is far from dead: it is as vital and alive as it has ever been. ¬†Rather than complaining about the attention upon them, I hope that they appreciate the readers who care what they think about movies and, for better or worse, the Oscars.

Finally, it really is the readers who drive this site — and, frankly, who always have. ¬†I surely would have quit long ago if not for many of you who come back every year, who write such wonderful comments (even when they’re vicious and must be deleted) and letters. What would we do without some of you — like Jeremie and Pierre and Jenny B and Rob Y – and Marshall – good lord, where would be without Marshall? Bob Burns, Kevin Klawitter, daveinprogress, Gentle Benj, Jon Pace, Alan of Montreal, menyc, glimmer, chrisw, Joao Mattos, iggy, sonny, Bridgie James Rosenthal, steve50, filmboymichael, phantom, arjay, Ziyad Abul Hawa, Paddy M. The list could go on for 100 more loyal readers and still not name everyone whose daily contributions elevate the conversations we start. Awards Daily, like Oscarwatch before it, is a family. ¬†A dysfunctional family perhaps, but a family nonetheless. ¬†Would someone like to say a prayer before the meal?