Sight unseen, scouting out the best screenplays of 2011

Since much of a best screenplay nomination hangs on the past pedigrees of the writers, directors and cast, it’s never too soon to begin groping in the dark to wonder which films might emerge as this year’s frontrunners for best screenplay. A message from phantom this weekend suggested it might be fun to venture some blind predictions. At this stage we can already begin to see important puzzle pieces fall into place, yet it’s early enough in the process so that we can later claim plausible deniability if some of our premature expectations are horribly off-base. I’ll kick things off by naming 21 titles in each category — Original and Adapted — roughly arranged according to idle speculation and wishful thinking. You’ll let me know what I’m leaving out, which scripts you expect to shine brightest, and which ones are pipe-dreams.

Best Original Screenplay

The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
Win Win, Thomas McCarthy & Joe Tibani
Meek’s Cutoff, Jonathan Raymond
Rampart, James Ellroy & Oren Moverman
Iron Lady, Abi Morgan & Michael Hirst
Take This Waltz, Sarah Polley
Shame, Abi Morgan & Steve McQueen

Alternates and Best Adapted, after the cut.

other strong possibilities

Midnight In Paris, Woody Allen
Take Shelter, Jeff Nichols

Super 8, JJ Abrams
Contagion, Scott Z Burns
The Beaver, Kyle Killen
Crazy Stupid Love, Dan Fogelman
Higher Ground, Carolyn Briggs & Tim Metcalfe
One Day, David Nicholls
Melancholia, Lars von Trier
The Whistleblower, Larisa Kondracki & Ellis Kirwan
Martha Marcy May Marlene, Sean Durkin
W.E. Madonna & Alek Keshishian
Beginners, Mike Mills
The Details, Jacob Aaron Estes
Larry Crowne, Tom Hanks & Nia Vardalos

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants, Alexander Payne ,Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
Albert Nobbs, John Bamville & Glenn Close
War Horse, Lee Hall & Richard Curtis
Ides of March, George Clooney & Grant Heslov
Hugo Cabret, John Logan
Moneyball, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin & Stan Chervin
A Dangerous Method, Christopher Hampton

strong possibilities

We Bought a Zoo, Cameron Crowe & Aline Brosh McKenna
We Need to Talk About Kevin, Lynn Ramsay
The Help, Tate Taylor
Jane Eyre, Moira Buffini
Wuthering Heights, Olivia Hetreed
The Rum Diary, Bruce Robinson
My Week With Marilyn, Adrian Hodges
Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Steven Moffat, Edgar Wright & Joe Vornish
One Day, David Nicholls
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Steve Zaillian
The Skin I Live In, Pedro Almodovar
Coriolanus, John Logan
Pariah, Dee Rees
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Bridget O’Connor & Peter Strong
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Ol Parker

surprise 2011 releases?

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Eric Roth (2012?)
Carnage, Roman Polanski & Yasmina Reza (2012?)
J Edgar, Dustin Lance Black (2012?)